Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Componentwise adaptation for high dimensional MCMC
2005
We introduce a new adaptive MCMC algorithm, based on the traditional single component Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and on our earlier adaptive Metropolis algorithm (AM). In the new algorithm the adaption is performed component by component. The chain is no more Markovian, but it remains ergodic. The algorithm is demonstrated to work well in varying test cases up to 1000 dimensions.
Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity
2020
AbstractThe paper proposes a spatio-temporal process that improves the assessment of events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the forward likelihood for prediction method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.
Elasticity function of a discrete random variable and its properties
2017
ABSTRACTElasticity (or elasticity function) is a new concept that allows us to characterize the probability distribution of any random variable in the same way as characteristic functions and hazard and reverse hazard functions do. Initially defined for continuous variables, it was necessary to extend the definition of elasticity and study its properties in the case of discrete variables. A first attempt to define discrete elasticity is seen in Veres-Ferrer and Pavia (2014a). This paper develops this definition and makes a comparative study of its properties, relating them to the properties shown by discrete hazard and reverse hazard, as both defined in Chechile (2011). Similar to continuou…
Criteria for Bayesian model choice with application to variable selection
2012
In objective Bayesian model selection, no single criterion has emerged as dominant in defining objective prior distributions. Indeed, many criteria have been separately proposed and utilized to propose differing prior choices. We first formalize the most general and compelling of the various criteria that have been suggested, together with a new criterion. We then illustrate the potential of these criteria in determining objective model selection priors by considering their application to the problem of variable selection in normal linear models. This results in a new model selection objective prior with a number of compelling properties.
Exponential and bayesian conjugate families: Review and extensions
1997
The notion of a conjugate family of distributions plays a very important role in the Bayesian approach to parametric inference. One of the main features of such a family is that it is closed under sampling, but a conjugate family often provides prior distributions which are tractable in various other respects. This paper is concerned with the properties of conjugate families for exponential family models. Special attention is given to the class of natural exponential families having a quadratic variance function, for which the theory is particularly fruitful. Several classes of conjugate families have been considered in the literature and here we describe some of their most interesting feat…
Spatio-temporal stochastic modelling: environmental and health processes
2010
Guest editorial
A gradient-based deletion diagnostic measure for generalized linear mixed models
2016
ABSTRACTA gradient-statistic-based diagnostic measure is developed in the context of the generalized linear mixed models. Its performance is assessed by some real examples and simulation studies, in terms of ability in detecting influential data structures and of concordance with the most used influence measures.
Pseudo-Cut Strategies for Global Optimization
2011
Motivated by the successful use of a pseudo-cut strategy within the setting of constrained nonlinear and nonconvex optimization in Lasdon et al. (2010), we propose a framework for general pseudo-cut strategies in global optimization that provides a broader and more comprehensive range of methods. The fundamental idea is to introduce linear cutting planes that provide temporary, possibly invalid, restrictions on the space of feasible solutions, as proposed in the setting of the tabu search metaheuristic in Glover (1989), in order to guide a solution process toward a global optimum, where the cutting planes can be discarded and replaced by others as the process continues. These strategies can…
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS WITH TAPERED DATA
1983
. A new method based on an upper bound for spectral windows is presented for investigating the cumulants of time series statistics. Using this method two classical results are proved for tapered data. In particular, the asymptotic normality for a class of spectral estimates including estimates for the spectral function and the covariance function is proved under integrability conditions on the spectra using the method of cumulants.
Model comparison and selection for stationary space–time models
2007
An intensive simulation study to compare the spatio-temporal prediction performances among various space-time models is presented. The models having separable spatio-temporal covariance functions and nonseparable ones, under various scenarios, are also considered. The computational performance among the various selected models are compared. The issue of how to select an appropriate space-time model by accounting for the tradeoff between goodness-of-fit and model complexity is addressed. Performances of the two commonly used model-selection criteria, Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion are examined. Furthermore, a practical application based on the statistical ana…