Search results for "probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Spatial data of Ixodes ricinus instar abundance and nymph pathogen prevalence, Scandinavia, 2016-2017.
2020
ticks carry pathogens that can cause disease in both animals and humans, and there is a need to monitor the distribution and abundance of ticks and the pathogens they carry to pinpoint potential high risk areas for tick-borne disease transmission. In a joint Scandinavian study, we measured Ixodes ricinus instar abundance at 159 sites in southern Scandinavia in August-September, 2016, and collected 29,440 tick nymphs at 50 of these sites. We additionally measured abundance at 30 sites in August-September, 2017. We tested the 29,440 tick nymphs in pools of 10 in a Fluidigm real-time PCR chip to screen for 17 different tick-associated pathogens, 2 pathogen groups and 3 tick species. We present…
Statistical relationship between hardness of drinking water and cerebrovascular mortality in Valencia: a comparison of spatiotemporal models
2003
The statistical detection of environmental risk factors in public health studies is usually difficult due to the weakness of their effects and their confounding with other covariates. Small area geographical data bring the opportunity of observing health response in a wide variety of exposure values. Temporal sequences of these geographical datasets are crucial to gaining statistical power in detecting factors. The spatiotemporal models required to perform the statistical analysis have to allow for spatial and temporal correlations, which are more easily modelled via hierarchical structures of hidden random factors. These models have produced important research activity during the last deca…
A critical evaluation of the current “p-value controversy”
2017
This article has been triggered by the initiative launched in March 2016 by the Board of Directors of the American Statistical Association (ASA) to counteract the current p-value focus of statistical research practices that allegedly "have contributed to a reproducibility crisis in science." It is pointed out that in the very wide field of statistics applied to medicine, many of the problems raised in the ASA statement are not as severe as in the areas the authors may have primarily in mind, although several of them are well-known experts in biostatistics and epidemiology. This is mainly due to the fact that a large proportion of medical research falls under the realm of a well developed bo…
Analysis and modelling of wind speed in New York
2010
In this paper we propose an ARMA time-series model for the wind speed at a single spatial location, and estimate it on in-sample data recorded in three different wind farm regions in New York state. The data have a three-hour granularity, but based on applications to financial wind derivatives contracts, we also consider daily average wind speeds. We demonstrate that there are large discrepancies in the behaviour of daily average and three-hourly wind speed records. The validation procedure based on out-of-sample observations reflects that the proposed model is reliable and can be used for various practical applications, like, for instance, weather prediction, pricing of financial wind cont…
Adaptive designs with correlated test statistics
2009
In clinical trials, the collected observations such as clustered data or repeated measurements are often correlated. As a consequence, test statistics in a multistage design are correlated. Adaptive designs were originally developed for independent test statistics. We present a general framework for two-stage adaptive designs with correlated test statistics. We show that the significance level for the Bauer-Köhne design is inflated for positively correlated test statistics from a bivariate normal distribution. The decision boundary for the second stage can be modified so that type one error is controlled. This general concept is expandable to other adaptive designs. In order to use these de…
Lattices and dual lattices in optimal experimental design for Fourier models
1998
Number-theoretic lattices, used in integration theory, are studied from the viewpoint of the design and analysis of experiments. For certain Fourier regression models lattices are optimal as experimental designs because they produce orthogonal information matrices. When the Fourier model is restricted, that is a special subset of the full factorial (cross-spectral) model is used, there is a difficult inversion problem to find generators for an optimal design for the given model. Asymptotic results are derived for certain models as the dimension of the space goes to infinity. These can be thought of as a complexity theory connecting designs and models or as special type of Nyquist sampling t…
Optimal designs for a one-way layout with covariates
2000
Abstract For the general class of Φ q -criteria optimal designs are characterized which reflect the inherent symmetry in a one-way layout with covariates. In particular, the eigenvalues of the covariance matrices are related to those in suitably chosen marginal models depending on the underlying interaction structure.
Efficiency Bounds for Product Designs in Linear Models
1999
We provide lower efficiency bounds for the best product design for an additive multifactor linear model. The A-optimality criterion is used to demonstrate that out bounds are better than the conventional bounds. Applications to other criteria, such as IMSE (integrated mean squared error) criterion are also indicated. In all the cases, the best product design appears to perform better when there are more levels in each factor but decreases when more factors are included. Explicit efficiency formulas for non-additive models are also constructed.
A non-linear optimization procedure to estimate distances and instantaneous substitution rate matrices under the GTR model.
2006
Abstract Motivation: The general-time-reversible (GTR) model is one of the most popular models of nucleotide substitution because it constitutes a good trade-off between mathematical tractability and biological reality. However, when it is applied for inferring evolutionary distances and/or instantaneous rate matrices, the GTR model seems more prone to inapplicability than more restrictive time-reversible models. Although it has been previously noted that the causes for intractability are caused by the impossibility of computing the logarithm of a matrix characterised by negative eigenvalues, the issue has not been investigated further. Results: Here, we formally characterize the mathematic…
Classification trees for multivariate ordinal response: an application to Student Evaluation Teaching
2016
Data from multiple items on an ordinal scale are commonly collected when qualitative variables, such as feelings, attitudes and many other behavioral and health-related variables are observed. In this paper we introduce a method to derive a distance-based tree for multivariate ordinal response that allows, when subject-specific characteristics are available, to derive common profiles for respondents giving the same/similar multivariate ratings. Special attention will be paid to the performance comparison in terms of AUC, for three different distances used as splitting criteria. Simulated data an a dataset from a Student Evaluation of Teaching survey will be used as illustrative examples. Th…