Search results for "probability"

Comment on "Ecological importance of the thermal emissivity of avian eggshells".

2012

Eggshell emissivity must be known to determine accurately the cooling rate of avian eggs when the parent, after heating by conduction during the incubation, is temporarily absent. We estimate possible values of eggshell emissivities from in-situ measurements and spectral libraries. Emissivity is near to 1 (probably higher than 0.95) and therefore its effect on cooling rate may be negligible, with differences between the temperature of the egg assuming a value of e=0.95 and that of a blackbody (e=1) below 0.2 °C.

Sample size in cluster-randomized trials with time to event as the primary endpoint

2011

In cluster-randomized trials, groups of individuals (clusters) are randomized to the treatments or interventions to be compared. In many of those trials, the primary objective is to compare the time for an event to occur between randomized groups, and the shared frailty model well fits clustered time-to-event data. Members of the same cluster tend to be more similar than members of different clusters, causing correlations. As correlations affect the power of a trial to detect intervention effects, the clustered design has to be considered in planning the sample size. In this publication, we derive a sample size formula for clustered time-to-event data with constant marginal baseline hazards…

Comment on ‘Generating survival times to simulate Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying covariates’

2013

A quantum statistical approach to simplified stock markets

2009

We use standard perturbation techniques originally formulated in quantum (statistical) mechanics in the analysis of a toy model of a stock market which is given in terms of bosonic operators. In particular we discuss the probability of transition from a given value of the {\em portfolio} of a certain trader to a different one. This computation can also be carried out using some kind of {\em Feynman graphs} adapted to the present context.

Portfolio optimisation with strictly positive transaction costs and impulse control

1998

One crucial assumption in modern portfolio theory of continuous-time models is the no transaction cost assumption. This assumption normally leads to trading strategies with infinite variation. However, following such a strategy in the presence of transaction costs will lead to immediate ruin. We present an impulse control approach where the investor can change his portfolio only finitely often in finite time intervals. Further, we consider transaction costs including a fixed and a proportional cost component. For the solution of the resulting control problems we present a formal optimal stopping approach and an approach using quasi-variational inequalities. As an application we derive a non…

A Bayesian SIRS model for the analysis of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia, Spain

2014

We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model in discrete time to understand respiratory syncytial virus dynamics in the region of Valencia, Spain. A SIRS model based on ordinary differential equations has also been proposed to describe RSV dynamics in the region of Valencia. However, this continuous-time deterministic model is not suitable when the initial number of infected individuals is small. Stochastic epidemic models based on a probability of disease transmission provide a more natural description of the spread of infectious diseases. In addition, by allowing the transmission rate to vary stochastically over time, the proposed model provides…

Structure Learning in Nested Effects Models

2007

Nested Effects Models (NEMs) are a class of graphical models introduced to analyze the results of gene perturbation screens. NEMs explore noisy subset relations between the high-dimensional outputs of phenotyping studies, e.g., the effects showing in gene expression profiles or as morphological features of the perturbed cell. In this paper we expand the statistical basis of NEMs in four directions. First, we derive a new formula for the likelihood function of a NEM, which generalizes previous results for binary data. Second, we prove model identifiability under mild assumptions. Third, we show that the new formulation of the likelihood allows efficiency in traversing model space. Fourth, we…

Towards next-generation diagnostics for tuberculosis: identification of novel molecular targets by large-scale comparative genomics.

2020

5 páginas, 2 figuras. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The database of non-tuberculous mycobacteria assemblies can be accessed at: 10.5281/zenodo.3374377. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/bioinformatics/btz729

ARC A computerized system for urban garbage collection

1993

In this paper we present ARC a computerized system developed for urban garbage collection. The package is intended to help the planners in the design of efficient collection routes and to facilitate the study and evaluation of alternatives concerning issues such as the type and number of vehicles, frequency of collection and type and location of refuse containers. The final product is a “user friendly” system designed to be used by the planners without outside assistance.

Eleccion de variables en regresion lineal un problema de decision

1986

A general structure for the problem of selection of variables in regression is proposed using the decision theory framework. In particular, some results for the choice of the best linear normal homocedastic model are obtained when the main purpose is either to specify the predictive distribution over the response variable or to obtain a point estimate of it. A comparison of our results with the most widespread classical ones is presented