Search results for "risk analysi"
showing 10 items of 380 documents
Using Statistical and Computer Models to Quantify Volcanic Hazards
2009
Risk assessment of rare natural hazards, such as large volcanic block and ash or pyroclastic flows, is addressed. Assessment is approached through a combination of computer modeling, statistical modeling, and extreme-event probability computation. A computer model of the natural hazard is used to provide the needed extrapolation to unseen parts of the hazard space. Statistical modeling of the available data is needed to determine the initializing distribution for exercising the computer model. In dealing with rare events, direct simulations involving the computer model are prohibitively expensive. The solution instead requires a combination of adaptive design of computer model approximation…
Value-at-Risk and Tsallis statistics: risk analysis of the aerospace sector
2004
In this study, we analyze the aerospace stocks prices in order to characterize the sector behavior. The data analyzed cover the period from January 1987 to April 1999. We present a new index for the aerospace sector and we investigate the statistical characteristics of this index. Our results show that this index is well described by Tsallis distribution. We explore this result and modify the standard Value-at-Risk (VaR), financial risk assessment methodology in order to reflect an asset which obeys Tsallis non-extensive statistics.
Probabilistic small area risk assessment using GIS-based data: a case study on Finnish childhood diabetes
2000
A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model is constructed to describe the regional incidence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) among the under 15-year-olds in Finland. The model exploits aggregated pixel-wise locations for both the cases and the population at risk. Typically such data arise from combining geographic information systems (GIS) with large databases. The dates of diagnosis and locations of the cases are observed from 1987 to 1996. The population at risk counts are available for every second year during the same period. A hierarchical model is suggested for the pixel wise case counts, including a population model to account for the uncertainty of the population at risk ov…
A stochastic method for robustness analysis in sorting problems
2009
ELECTRE TRI is a multiple criteria decision aiding sorting method with a history of successful real-life applications. In ELECTRE TRI, values for certain parameters have to be provided. We propose a new method, SMAA-TRI, that is based on stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA), for analyzing the stability of such parameters. The stability analysis can be used for deriving robust conclusions. SMAA-TRI allows ELECTRE TRI to be used with uncertain, arbitrarily distributed values for weights, the lambda cutting level, and profiles. The method consists of analyzing finite spaces of arbitrarily distributed parameter values. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in this in order to desc…
The technological transplant
1990
Abstract This paper deals with technology transfer and conditions for successful diffusion of renewable energy technologies in developing countries. Issues such as perception of needs and resources are fully discussed, whether on mega-scale or micro-scale; that is to say, whether for a specific project or a whole country. A distinction is made between technology and the technological device, the latter being a component which is injected into a social system creating new links into the pre-existing structure; therefore, even if perfect in itself, it may not fit into the system in which it has to operate. The need for a complete analysis of the effects of the injection (or transplant) of the…
Autonomic behaviors in an Ambient Intelligence system
2014
Ambient Intelligence (AmI) systems are constantly evolving and becoming ever more complex, so it is increasingly difficult to design and develop them successfully. Moreover, because of the complexity of an AmI system as a whole, it is not always easy for developers to predict its behavior in the event of unforeseen circumstances. A possible solution to this problem might lie in delegating certain decisions to the machines themselves, making them more autonomous and able to self-configure and self-manage, in line with the paradigm of Autonomic Computing. In this regard, many researchers have emphasized the importance of adaptability in building agents that are suitable to operate in real-wor…
Wartość informacji w systemie informacyjnym w ocenie jej jakości
2018
The purpose of the article is to determine to what extent and how to evaluate the value of information available in the information system when assessing its quality. Such an evaluation, especially for systems operating on the Internet, is absolutely necessary because of the constant and rapid growth of the information resources available there, bearing the unnecessary economic costs of their poor quality and related to that negative social phenomena. The quality of information is a multidimensional category and requires evaluation of great number of different attributes. Are there among conceptual models for evaluating the quality of information also such that require evaluating the value …
Multi-criteria risk classification to enhance complex supply networks performance
2021
[EN] Management of complex supply networks is a fundamental business topic today. Especially in the presence of many and diverse stakeholders, identifying and assessing those risks having a potential negative impact on the performance of supply processes is of utmost importance and, as a result, implementing focused risk management actions is a current lively field of research. The possibility of supporting Supply Chain Risks Management (SCRM) is herein explored from a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-based perspective. The sorting method ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalite (ELECTRE) TRI is proposed as a structural procedure to classify Supply Chain Risks (SCRs) into proper risk…
Recent advances in green industrial networking [Guest Editorial]
2016
The articles in this special section focus on green industrial networking. Due to the explosive increase in energy usage, it is essential that governmental and industrial institutions address this problem. Therefore, the development of green and low-carbon economy has recently become a hot issue in the industry. It is envisioned in such cases to meet the growing demands for industrial networking with limited resources. This is considered one of the challenges that needs to be addressed. Addressing such key problems will hopefully allow us to reach the realization of sustainable development. We believe that network technologies will be critical and will greatly contribute to achieving large-…
'Participative foresight scenario mapping': adapting an MCM method to appraise foresight scenarios for the long term sustainable development of a sma…
2016
Multi-criteria mapping (MCM) appraisal has been used in projects involving decisions related to specific technologies or policies in risk analysis. In this research, MCM has been adapted for appraising in a participative way holistic scenarios for a small isolated island. The procedural novelty relies on how the scenario building and the criteria selection were undertaken. Two scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal) were developed in a two step process involving, firstly, specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and secondly, lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of future. This article analyses the methodological aspects of the project (scenario development…