Search results for "rules"
showing 10 items of 225 documents
Probabilistic entailment and iterated conditionals
2020
In this paper we exploit the notions of conjoined and iterated conditionals, which are defined in the setting of coherence by means of suitable conditional random quantities with values in the interval $[0,1]$. We examine the iterated conditional $(B|K)|(A|H)$, by showing that $A|H$ p-entails $B|K$ if and only if $(B|K)|(A|H) = 1$. Then, we show that a p-consistent family $\mathcal{F}=\{E_1|H_1,E_2|H_2\}$ p-entails a conditional event $E_3|H_3$ if and only if $E_3|H_3=1$, or $(E_3|H_3)|QC(\mathcal{S})=1$ for some nonempty subset $\mathcal{S}$ of $\mathcal{F}$, where $QC(\mathcal{S})$ is the quasi conjunction of the conditional events in $\mathcal{S}$. Then, we examine the inference rules $A…
Assessing fat-tailed sequential forecast distributions for the Dow-Jones index with logarithmic scoring rules
2007
We use the logarithmic scoring rule for distributions to assess a variety of fat-tailed sequential forecasting distributions for the Dow-Jones industrial stock index from 1980 to the present. The methodology applies Bruno de Finetti''s contributions to understanding how to compare the quality of different coherent forecasting distributions for the same sequence of observations, using proper scoring rules. Four different forms of forecasting distributions are compared: a mixture Normal, a mixture of convex combinations of three Normal distributions, a mixture exponential power distribution, and a mixture of a convex combination of three exponential power distributions. The mixture linear com…
The effects of training on the grammar of preschool children
1974
The acquisition of morphological and syntactic rules of language during early childhood has been the object of intensive study in many languages during the last few years. As regards English, some surveys have already been published on the results (McNeill, 1970; Slobin, 1971). Research on the acquisition of morphological and syntactic patterns has been influenced on the one hand by psycholinguistics, on the other by the psychology of learning. This duality of starting points manifests itself also in the way of presenting problems and in the interpretation of results. One of the methodological difficulties when studying the acquisition of grammar was for a long time how to separate those la…
On the African Continental Free Trade Area
2021
Africa-wide integration projects have competed with step-wise regional integration since independence. This chapter examines the new project of an African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The project’s potential to become an economic game-changer for Africa is analysed alongside the likely pitfalls of the arrangement. We conclude that while a well-staged AfCFTA can resolve a number of critical issues associated with intra-African integration, it cannot replace existing RECs, especially not with respect to negotiating extra-regional trade agreements. It is argued that to avoid undercutting the entire process, the entrenched logic of exceptions and exclusions from tariff liberalization m…
Stable sharing rules and participation in pools of essential patents
2019
Abstract For pools of essential patents I study whether a pool's sharing rule is stable against arbitrage, so that the pool's members have no incentive to trade patents. I show that the only stable rule is the numeric proportional rule, which gives each member a share of the pool's profit equal to its share of the pool's patents. I study how the stable rule affects firms' incentives to participate, and I show that firms with few patents tend to remain outside the pool. I look at the trade off between stability and participation, and I show that as trade dilutes their shares, members prefer the stable rule. I consider individual licenses, stand-alone patents, integration, and R&D. The result…
From custom to law, an economic rationale behind the black lettering
2018
This article employs the number of rule recipients in order to explain the transformation of some customs into laws. The publication of rules may mark the reaching of the threshold number beyond which the spontaneous rule leaves room for the State intervention. In addition, the publication resolves a couple of questions that Hayek left unresolved. Examples are provided from ancient merchant customs and contemporary international law.
Voters’ preferences and electoral systems: the EuroVotePlus experiment in Italy
2016
Motivated by the need to understand voting behaviour under different electoral rules, Laslier et al. (Eur Union Polit, 16(4):601–615, 2015) have conducted an online experiment, the EuroVotePlus experiment, focusing on the effects of the different rules adopted to elect members of the European parliament on voters’ behaviour. The experiment took place in several European countries in the 3 weeks before the 2014 elections for the European Parliament. This paper focuses on the Italian data. Firstly, we show that the behaviour of Italian respondents is consistent with the empirical findings at the European level. Then, we exploit the change from open list to closed list elections implemented in…
A Study of Seasonality on the SAFEX Wheat Market
2015
This paper examines seasonality in returns and volatilities in the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) wheat futures contract in order to seek market inefficiencies that can be exploited for financial gain. Non-parametric and parametric-based techniques are used to study sample regimes before and after the peak in wheat prices that occurred during the global economic crisis in 2008. Findings of the study indicate that wheat returns on Mondays and Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) holidays are significant and positive while Tuesday returns are negative and significant. These seasonal patterns occur largely in the second sample of the wheat dataset. Furthermore, it is observed that volatil…
A quest between fiscal and market discipline
2023
Fiscal rules are typically seen as government constraints. Yet, the extent to which they are substituted or complemented by market discipline (especially, during financial stress) remains unexplored. Using data for 71 countries over the period 1985–2015, we estimate an “augmented” fiscal reaction function to assess the impact of both fiscal and market discipline. We find that different market signals influence fiscal policy, but fiscal discipline depends on market incentives. In the EU and the OECD, market signals complement fiscal rules. These are less effective in the EMU and non-OECD countries that are “debt intolerant”. Yet, there are unintended consequences: (i) neither output and debt…
One Rule to Rule Them All? Organisational Sensemaking of Corporate Responsibility
2015
Corporate responsibility (CR) has often been criticised as a decoupled organisational phenomenon: a publicly espoused rule that is not followed in daily organisational practices. We argue that a crucial reason for this criticism arises from the dominant in-house assumption of CR literature, which mitigates tensions and contradictions in organisational life by claiming that integrated rules result in coupled practices. We aim to provide new insights by problematising this in-house assumption and by examining how members of two organisations discursively make sense of CR, as a daily rule-bound practice, via three strategies: integration, differentiation and fragmentation. We elaborate the con…