Search results for "scenario"
showing 8 items of 158 documents
Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Africa team
2021
Abstract COVID-19 disrupted international tourism worldwide, subsequently presenting forecasters with a challenging conundrum. In this competition, we predict international arrivals for 20 destinations in two phases: (i) Ex post forecasts pre-COVID; (ii) Ex ante forecasts during and after the pandemic up to end 2021. Our results show that univariate combined with cross-sectional hierarchical forecasting techniques (THieF-ETS) outperform multivariate models pre-COVID. Scenarios were developed based on judgemental adjustment of the THieF-ETS baseline forecasts. Analysts provided a regional view on the most likely path to normal, based on country-specific regulations, macroeconomic conditions,…
A multi-scenario Decision Support System for real-time operation of over-year multi-reservoir system 2. DSS simulation
2019
A companion paper (Arena et al, 2019) has introduced the architecture of the DSS and has described its governing equations. In a real-time, dynamic decision-making context, it is a tool to support decisions at the current time step concerning water allocations to municipal demand centres and irrigation districts as well as additional intakes from costly water sources in a water resources system featuring reservoirs with over-year behaviour. The DSS is designed as a linearized MIP (mixed integer programming) optimization model and as such, it includes an objective function and constraints on 1) mass balances at system’s nodes, 2) systems’ topology, 3) component’s capacity, 4) spills, as well…
Sähköä ja alkemiaa: Tekoälydiskurssit Yleisradion verkkoartikkeleissa
2021
Tässä artikkelissa tarkastelemme sitä, millaisena ja miten tekoäly esitetään suomalaisessa julkisessa keskustelussa, ja ketkä tekoälystä suurelle yleisölle kertovat. Aineistona olemme käyttäneet Yleisradion verkkosivujen tekoälyä käsitteleviä artikkeleja. Tulosten perusteella tekoälystä pääsevät kertomaan useimmin talouden ja teollisuuden aloilla työskentelevät miehet. Aineistossa esiintyneet tekoälytulevaisuuskuvaukset pitäytyvät pitkälti nykyisen länsikeskeisen kapitalistisen maailmankuvan sisällä. Toisin sanoen, ne eivät haastaneet tai ylittäneet vallitsevaa status quoa, vaan näkivät tulevaisuuden pikemminkin lineaarisena kehityksenä nykytilasta. Aiemman tutkimuksen perusteella yleinen k…
From local measures to regional impacts: Modelling changes in nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea
2021
Study Region: Our study region is the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB), which covers an area of 1.8 Mio km2 distributed over 14 countries in northern Europe. Study Focus: We use a large-scale hydrological and nutrient transport model (E-HYPE) to model basin-wide impacts of measure scenarios on the Baltic Sea, where eutrophication is a critical issue for the marine ecosystem. We constructed measure scenarios based on stakeholder acceptance, established in workshops in different regions around the Baltic. These measures include local stream reach to catchment scale measures aiming to reduce nutrient transport into the stream network (buffer strips, stormwater ponds) and measures aiming to red…
Ainavu ekoloģiskā plānošana un tās metodoloģiskie risinājumi mozaīkveida ainavās
2013
Elektroniskā versija nesatur pielikumus
A Dynamic Simulation Approach to Frame Drivers and Implications of Corruption Practices on Firm Performance
2014
Corruption is a multifaceted socio-economic phenomenon widely spread – although with different intensity – all around the world. Many studies on corruption have been conducted at a country-level, but relatively little effort has been placed in evaluating its implications, in terms of both financial and competitive performance, at a firm-level. Therefore, this paper aims at exploring the causal relationships underlying the effect of corruption on firm performance in order to show the different scenarios that may emerge from the combination between external (i.e., contextual conditions) and internal (i.e., organizational characteristics) forces that drive corruption. To this end, we adopt a D…
The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan
2009
Published version of an article from the journal:Natural Hazards. Also available from SpringerLink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9522-9 This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to…
Millennials. La nuova scena della grafica italiana
2015
L’idea di Millennials è nata, si è sviluppata e articolata, strutturandosi in modo ben più complesso da quelle che erano le istanze iniziali, intorno a una necessità: fotografare la scena della grafica italiana degli anni più recenti, focalizzandosi sulle produzioni di autori nati dopo il 1980. Il discrimine temporale nasce dalla constatazione di un cambio di passo, di una trasformazione radicale dovuta a più fattori: l’evoluzione tecnologica (è questa la prima generazione completamente digitalizzata), la crisi economica, che ha necessariamente imposto nuove modalità di produzione e di autorappresentazione, i percorsi formativi, strutturati da corsi di studi rivolti all’ambito disciplinare …