Search results for "splines"
showing 10 items of 44 documents
Assessment of Gully Erosion Susceptibility Using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Accounting for Terrain Connectivity
2017
In this work, we assessed gully erosion susceptibility in two adjacent cultivated catchments of Sicily (Italy) by employing multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and a set of geo-environmental variables. To explore the influence of hydrological connectivity on gully occurrence we measured the changes of performance occurred when adding one by one nine predictors reflecting terrain connectivity to a base model that included contributing area and slope gradient. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate models performance. Gully predictive models were trained in both the catchments and submitted to internal (in the ca…
On mathematical modelling of the solid-liquid mixtures transport in porous axial-symmetrical container with Henry and Langmuir sorption kinetics
2018
In this paper we study diffusion and convection filtration problem of one substance through the pores of a porous material which may absorb and immobilize some of the diffusing substances. As an example we consider round cylinder with filtration process in the axial direction. The cylinder is filled with sorbent i.e. absorbent material that passed through dirty water or liquid solutions. We can derive the system of two partial differential equations (PDEs), one expressing the rate of change of concentration of water in the pores of the sorbent and the other - the rate of change of concentration in the sorbent or kinetical equation for absorption. The approximation of corresponding initial b…
Predicting sediment deposition rate in check-dams using machine learning techniques and high-resolution DEMs
2021
Sediments accumulated in check dams are a valuable measure to estimate soil erosion rates. Here, geographic information systems (GIS) and three machine learning techniques (MARS-multivariate adaptive regression splines, RF-random forest and SVM-support vector machine) were used, for the first time, to predict sediment deposition rate (SR) in check-dams located in six watersheds in SW Spain. There, 160 dry-stone check dams (~ 77.8 check-dams km−2), accumulated sediments during a period that varied from 11 to 23 years. The SR was estimated in former research using a topographical method and a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (average of 0.14 m3 ha−1 year−1). Nine environmental-to…
Effects of different simplified milk recording methods on genetic evaluation with Test-Day animal model
2007
The aims of the present study were to compare estimated breeding values (EBV) for milk yield using different testing schemes with a test-day animal model and to evaluate the effect of different testing schemes on the ranking of top sheep. Alternative recording schemes that use less information than that currently obtained with a monthly test-day schedule were employed to estimate breeding values. A random regression animal mixed model that used a spline function of days in milk was fitted. EBVs obtained with alternative recording schemes showed different degrees of Spearman correlation with EBVs obtained using the monthly recording scheme. These correlations ranged from 0.77 to 0.92. A redu…
Exploring the effect of absence selection on landslide susceptibility models: A case study in Sicily, Italy
2016
Abstract A statistical approach was employed to model the spatial distribution of rainfall-triggered landslides in two areas in Sicily (Italy) that occurred during the winter of 2004–2005. The investigated areas are located within the Belice River basin and extend for 38.5 and 10.3 km 2 , respectively. A landslide inventory was established for both areas using two Google Earth images taken on October 25th 2004 and on March 18th 2005, to map slope failures activated or reactivated during this interval. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to prepare 5 m grids of the dependent variables (absence/presence of landslide) and independent variables (lithology and 13 DEM-derivatives). Mul…
Mapping Susceptibility to Debris Flows Triggered by Tropical Storms: A Case Study of the San Vicente Volcano Area (El Salvador, CA)
2021
In this study, an inventory of storm-triggered debris flows performed in the area of the San Vicente volcano (El Salvador, CA) was used to calibrate predictive models and prepare a landslide susceptibility map. The storm event struck the area in November 2009 as the result of the simultaneous action of low-pressure system 96E and Hurricane Ida. Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) was employed to model the relationships between a set of environmental variables and the locations of the debris flows. Validation of the models was performed by splitting 100 random samples of event and non-event 10 m pixels into training and test subsets. The validation results revealed an excellent (…
Prediction of debris-avalanches and -flows triggered by a tropical storm by using a stochastic approach: An application to the events occurred in Moc…
2019
Abstract Landslides are among the most dangerous natural processes. Debris avalanches and debris flows in particular have often caused casualties and severe damage to infrastructures in a wide range of environments. The assessment of susceptibility to these phenomena may help policy makers in mitigating the associated risk and thus it has attracted special attention in the last decades. In this experiment, we assessed susceptibility to debris-avalanche and -flow landslides by using a stochastic approach. Two different modeling techniques were employed: i) Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and ii) Logistic Regression (LR). Both MARS and LR allow for calculating the probability …
Evaluation of debris flow susceptibility in El Salvador (CA): a comparison between Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Binary Logisti…
2018
In the studies of landslide susceptibility assessment, which have been developed in recent years, statistical methods have increasingly been applied. Among all, the BLR (Binary Logistic Regression) certainly finds a more extensive application while MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines), despite the good performance and the innovation of the strategies of analysis, only recently began to be employed as a statistical tool for predicting landslide occurrence. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the predictive performance and identify possible drawbacks of the two statistical techniques mentioned above, focusing in particular on the prediction of debris flows. To this aim, an…
Assessment of susceptibility to earth-flow landslide using logistic regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines: A case of the Belice Riv…
2015
Abstract In this paper, terrain susceptibility to earth-flow occurrence was evaluated by using geographic information systems (GIS) and two statistical methods: Logistic regression (LR) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). LR has been already demonstrated to provide reliable predictions of earth-flow occurrence, whereas MARS, as far as we know, has never been used to generate earth-flow susceptibility models. The experiment was carried out in a basin of western Sicily (Italy), which extends for 51 km 2 and is severely affected by earth-flows. In total, we mapped 1376 earth-flows, covering an area of 4.59 km 2 . To explore the effect of pre-failure topography on earth-flow sp…
What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?
2013
This paper assesses the determinants of the length of fiscal consolidation using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1978-2009. Relying on a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidation episodes, we show that fiscal variables (such as the budget deficit and the level of public debt) and economic factors (such as the degree of openness, the inflation rate, the interest rate and per capita GDP) are crucial for the fiscal consolidation process. Additionally, we employ duration analysis over a set of consolidation spells and find that, as time goes by, the likelihood of a fiscal consolidation ending is higher. However, the hazard function is not monotonic: indeed, it …