Search results for "stock market"
showing 10 items of 159 documents
Industry-level determinants of the linkage between credit and stock markets
2018
ABSTRACTThis paper examines the relationship between US credit default swaps (CDS) and stock returns on an industry-wide basis across a number of investment horizons, with particular focus on the m...
SECULAR MEAN REVERSION AND LONG-RUN PREDICTABILITY OF THE STOCK MARKET
2016
Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean revers…
Risk transmission between Islamic and conventional stock markets: A return and volatility spillover analysis
2017
Abstract This paper contributes to the current debate on the empirical validity of the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from its mainstream counterparts by examining return and volatility spillovers across the global Islamic stock market, three main conventional national stock markets (the US, the UK and Japan) and a number of influential macroeconomic and financial variables over the period from July 1996 to June 2016. To that end, the VAR-based spillover index approach based on the generalized VAR framework developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) is applied. The empirical analysis shows strong interactions in return and volatility among the global Islamic stock market, the…
Interest Rate Sensitivity of Spanish Industries: A Quantile Regression Approach
2015
This paper examines the degree of interest rate exposure of Spanish industries for the period 1993–2012 using the quantile regression methodology. The empirical results show that the Spanish stock market exhibits a significant level of interest rate sensitivity, although there are notable differences across industries and over time. In addition, the impact of changes in interest rates on industry equity returns tends to be more pronounced in extreme market conditions, i.e. during crises or bubbles in stock markets, than in normal periods. This finding may be related to herding behavior of stock investors during periods of market stress.
Does Shariah compliance make interest rate sensitivity of Islamic equities lower? An industry level analysis under different market states
2018
This paper examines the sensitivity of the Dow Jones Islamic market index and its corresponding industry equity indices to changes in the level, slope and curvature of the U.S. term structure of in...
Main driving factors of the interest rate-stock market Granger causality
2017
Abstract This paper investigates the causal relationship between changes in the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the S&P 500 stock return in the United Sates with emphasis on time variation, stress factors and smooth regime transition. First, the time-varying Granger causality test proposed by Lu et al. (2014) is applied. Then a two-regime multifactor smooth transition regression model with a single transition variable representing a wide range of macroeconomic and financial variables is estimated in order to identify the key explanatory factors governing the causal relationship. The results show a significant bidirectional causal relationship over most of the study period, mainly due to the…
Stock market and exchange rate information in the Taylor rule : Evidence from OECD countries
2017
We analyze the effects of stock market and exchange rate information in a forward-looking Taylor rule for monthly data from 14 OECD countries during the years 1999–2016. Especially the stock market information in the form of dividend but also the currency market information in the form of real exchange rate are revealed to be relevant in Taylor rule for many of the countries examined by helping to strengthen the role of inflation and real economic activity deviations in the policy rule. In many cases the rule also seems to be opportunistic, i.e., the inflation target has been time-varying. peerReviewed
Are there threshold effects in the stock price–dividend relation? The case of the US stock market, 1871–2004
2008
We use recent developments on threshold autoregressive models that allow deriving endogenously threshold effects to analyse the evolution of the US stock price–dividend relation over the period 1871 to 2004. More specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the stock price–dividend ratio should be expected once such threshold is reached. Our empirical results showed that significant adjustments would occur when, in a particular year, the stock price–dividend ratio had shown a decrease of more than 8.0% between the previous year and the fourth year before, which implies nonlinearities in the dynamic behaviour of the US stock price–dividend relation.
Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective
2014
Abstract This study examines the sensitivity of the Spanish stock market at the industry level to movements in oil prices over the period 1993–2010, paying special attention to the presence of endogenously determined structural changes in the relationship between oil price changes and industry equity returns. The empirical results show that the degree of oil price exposure of Spanish industries is rather limited, although significant differences are found across industries. The oil price sensitivity is very weak in the 1990s, a period of fairly stable and low oil prices. Instead, the link between crude oil and stock prices seems to have increased during the 2000s, becoming primarily positiv…
¿Puede un factor réplica del crecimiento económico futuro (PIB) explicar los rendimientos de los activos financieros cotizados en la bolsa española?
2020
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si un factor con capacidad predictiva sobre el crecimiento económico futuro, captura los rendimientos de los activos cotizados en la bolsa española. A su vez, se analiza la posible interpretación racional económica de los factores de Fama y French y momentum, como variables con información sobre dicho crecimiento económico futuro. Se cuantifican estos efectos para las etapas de crisis (económica: 1993-1997 y financiera: 2008-2011) y de expansión económica (1998-2007). Los resultados subrayan la relevancia y capacidad explicativa de este factor predictivo pero se encuentra una interpretación económica débil de los factores tamaño y ratio book-to-market…