Search results for "stock market"
showing 10 items of 159 documents
Region vs. Industry Effects and Volatility Transmission
2006
This article presents an analysis of the relative importance of region versus industry effects in stock returns, as opposed to the extensively analyzed country versus industry effects. The sample includes the period after the bursting of the technology bubble. Moreover, volatility transmission patterns are analyzed within an industry across regions to assess whether the same international links found in aggregate stock market indices exist at the industry level. The results confirm the dominance of region effects over industry effects, except during the bubble period. The results of the volatility transmission analysis suggest that the importance of spillovers depends on the industry.
¿SE PUEDE MEDIR LA NEGOCIACIÓN INFORMADA?: UNA REVISIÓN DE LA METODOLOGÍA BASADA EN LAS COVARIANZAS DE LAS SERIES DE PRECIOS
2009
RESUMENEl desarrollo en los modelos teóricos de microestructura ha motivado la aparición de un grupo de trabajos encaminado al estudio empírico de los costes de transacción y sus componentes dada la importancia que han tenido los mismos en el estudio del funcionamiento de los mercados y la comparación entre éstos así como sus numerosas aplicaciones en campos afines (finanzas corporativas, eficiencia de los mercados, etc.). Por otra parte, la contrastación empírica de los distintos modelos establecidos muestra resultados claramente dispares. Por ello, el objetivo de nuestro trabajo es analizar con detalle y en conjunto dichos modelos centrándonos en un grupo con características muy similares…
The distribution of stock returns: international evidence
1994
Although financial theory rests heavily on the normality assumption, daily stock returns display significant departures from normality. Different researchers have proposed alternative distributions. In this paper, the distribution of stock returns is examined in six stock markets. The empirical distributions present common features and are best represented by Student's t-distribution, while several alternative distributions are rejected.
Partisan Politics Theory and stock market performance: Evidence for Spain
2012
ABSTRACTThis paper examines the influence of Spanish major political events on stock market performance by testing the empirical implications of the existing theories focused on the connection between politics and stock exchanges. On the one hand, our findings give support to the partisan politics theory, since stock returns behave differently depending on the political orientation of the government, not only on the day of the national election but also during their tenure of office. On the other hand, the analytical results demonstrate that there are no abnormal positive returns during the second half of the government's term, which contradicts the opportunistic political business cycle th…
Financial crises in Spain: lessons from the last 150 years
2012
Financial crises are not unique to current financial systems. Are crises alike? Have they become more frequent, longer lasting and more severe since the 20th century? What does history tell us? The objective of this paper is to study the financial crises that have occurred in Spain over the last 150 years. We consider different types of crises (banking, currency and stock market crises), together with all their possible combinations, estimate their frequency by period and measure their length and depth. The main conclusion we obtain is that Spanish crises have been more frequent than in the rest of the world and have been more severe and more complex since 1973, as the 2007 crisis is confir…
Why Investors Should not be Cautious about the Academic Approach to Testing for Stock Market Anomalies
2005
The ability of investors to implement seasonal strategies implied by academic papers has been widely criticized, most recently by Hudson et al. (Applied Financial Economics, 12, 681–86, 2002). This paper addresses these concerns, and provides an example of a strategy derived from academic papers that indicates how and to what profitability such a strategy can be implemented. In particular, the pre-holiday anomaly is examined, where returns tend to be higher on the day before a holiday. After checking that the pre-holiday return compensates market frictions, the existence and the changing nature of such anomaly is tested. Finally, the profitability of the pre-holiday trading strategy in an o…
Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategies Basedon Unexpected Volatility
2014
The author documents that at the aggregate stock market level, unexpected volatility is negatively related to expected future returns, and positively related to future volatility. The author demonstrates how the predictive ability of unexpected volatility can be utilized in dynamic asset allocation strategies that deliver a substantial improvement in terms of risk-adjusted performance as compared to traditional buy-and-hold strategies. In addition, the author shows that active strategies based on unexpected volatility outperform the popular active strategy with a volatility target mechanism, and have some edge over the popular market timing strategy with a 10-month simple moving average rul…
Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between renewable energy stocks and crude oil prices
2018
Abstract This paper examines the time and frequency dynamics of connectedness among stock prices of U.S. clean energy companies, crude oil prices and a number of key financial variables using the methodology developed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018). This approach allows measuring the dynamics of return and volatility connectedness over time and across frequencies simultaneously. The empirical results show that most of return and volatility connectedness is generated in the very short-term, i.e. movements up to five days, while the long-term plays a minor role. Our analysis further reveals a greater degree of interconnectedness across crude oil and financial markets since the onset of the U.S…
Oil price shocks, global financial markets and their connectedness
2020
Abstract This paper extends the literature on the relationship between oil price shocks and financial markets by examining the effect of oil shocks on the sovereign bond markets of a large number of advanced and emerging economies and exploring the impact of oil shocks on the degree of connectedness among international financial markets. We show that the effect of oil price shocks is not only limited to stock market returns, but also extends to bond markets, even after controlling for discount rate shocks as well as aggregate capital market effects. Unlike the case for stock markets, the effect on sovereign bonds is found to be rather heterogeneous (in terms of size and sign) and primarily …
The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland
2011
Abstract A substantial body of stylized facts and empirical evidence exists regarding the relationships between financial variables and the macroeconomy in the United States. However, the question of whether this evidence is consistent with the cases of small open economies is less known. This paper focuses on the forecasting content of stock returns and volatility vs. the term spread for GDP, private consumption, industrial production and the inflation rate in Finland. Our results suggest that during normal times, the term spread is a much better tool than stock market variables for predicting real activity. However, during exceptional times, such as the recent financial crisis, the foreca…