Search results for "stock market"

A Comprehensive Look at the Real-Life Performance of Moving Average Trading Strategies

2015

Despite the enormous current interest in market timing and a series of publications in academic journals, there is still lack of comprehensive research on the evaluation of the profitability of trading rules using methods that are free from the data-snooping bias. In this paper we utilize the longest historical dataset that spans 155 years and extend previous studies on the performance of moving average trading rules in a number of important ways. Among other things, we investigate whether overweighting the recent prices improves the performance of timing rules; whether there is a single optimal lookback period in each trading rule; and how accurately the trading rules identify the bullish …

Property prices index numbers and derived indices

2014

Purpose – A useful instrument to understand and examine the inner workings of the property trade is devising index numbers of property prices based on historical sequences of market prices. The present work aims at the definition of index numbers of property prices, proposing an innovative methodology compared with what usually recurs in literature. The purpose of this paper is to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis proposed, based on the mechanisms of formation of stock indices, investigates the analogies between stock and property information, according to the peculiarities of the property trade, leading to a methodology approach, derived from Simple Price In…

Does Methodology Determine the Identification of Stock Split Motivations?: Evidence from Spain

2006

This study investigates the robustness of the results obtained for the possible motivations for firms listed on the Spanish stock market to execute a stock split using different methodologies. Although surveys from executives emphasize the use of stock splits as a way to increase the liquidity of shares, the empirical evidence is not conclusive. Our results, taken from the logit regression, the Kaplan-Meier method, the Cox regression and the automatic interaction detection, all support the hypotheses of signalling and optimal range.

Dynamic Asset Allocation Strategies Based on Unexpected Volatility

2013

In this paper we document that at the aggregate stock market level the unexpected volatility is negatively related to expected future returns and positively related to future volatility. We demonstrate how the predictive ability of unexpected volatility can be utilized in dynamic asset allocation strategies that deliver a substantial improvement in risk-adjusted performance as compared to traditional buy-and-hold strategies. In addition, we demonstrate that active strategies based on unexpected volatility outperform the popular active strategy with volatility target mechanism and have the edge over the widely reputed market timing strategy with 10-month simple moving average rule.

Clusters of Traders in Financial Markets

2020

In this chapter we discuss Aoki’s work on the description of clusters of economic agents acting in a market. Specifically, we briefly discuss his work on the Ewens distribution and its application in a model of stock market with heterogeneous agents. We then review recent empirical analyses on the heterogeneity of financial market participants and make a working hypothesis for an empirical study on the distribution of the number of clusters of market participants in a real stock market monitored with a resolution down to the shadowed identity of market participants.

Spanish Stock Returns: Where is the Weather Effect?

2003

Psychological studies support the existence of an influence of weather on mood. Saunders (1993) and Hirshleifer and Shumway (2001) argue that the weather could affect the behaviour of market traders and, therefore, it should be reflected in the stock returns. This paper investigates the possible relation between weather and market index returns in the context of the Spanish market. In 1989, this market changed its open outcry trading system into a computerised and decentralised trading system. Therefore, it is possible to check the influence of weather variables (sunshine hours and humidity levels) on index returns in an open outcry trading system, and to compare it with a screen traded env…

Interest rate changes and stock returns in Spain: A wavelet analysis

2015

This paper investigates the relationship between changes in interest rates and the Spanish stock market at the industry level over the period from January 1993 to December 2012 using a wavelet-based approach. The empirical results indicate that Spanish industries exhibit, in general, a significant interest rate sensitivity, although the degree of interest rate exposure differs considerably across industries and depending on the time horizon under consideration. In particular, regulated industries such as Utilities, highly indebted industries such as Real Estate, Utilities or Technology and Telecommunications, and the Banking industry emerge as the most vulnerable to interest rates. Further,…

Usançen der Börse und Convention der über See handelnden Kaufmannschaft in Riga: neuerdings revidirt und festgesetzt im November 1859

1860

The Nexus between Sovereign CDS and Stock Market Volatility: New Evidence

2021

This paper extends the studies published to date by performing an analysis of the causal relationships between sovereign CDS spreads and the estimated conditional volatility of stock indices. This estimation is performed using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) and dynamically applying the Granger causality test. The conditional volatility of the stock market has been obtained through various univariate GARCH models. This methodology allows us to study the information transmissions, both unidirectional and bidirectional, that occur between CDS spreads and stock volatility between 2004 and 2020. We conclude that CDS spread returns cause (in the Granger sense) conditional stock volatility, m…

The Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions and Sustainability on Company Performance in the Pharmaceutical Sector

2021

The primary goal of this study was to determine the impact of mergers and acquisitions (M&amp