Search results for "stock"
showing 10 items of 878 documents
Oil price shocks, global financial markets and their connectedness
2020
Abstract This paper extends the literature on the relationship between oil price shocks and financial markets by examining the effect of oil shocks on the sovereign bond markets of a large number of advanced and emerging economies and exploring the impact of oil shocks on the degree of connectedness among international financial markets. We show that the effect of oil price shocks is not only limited to stock market returns, but also extends to bond markets, even after controlling for discount rate shocks as well as aggregate capital market effects. Unlike the case for stock markets, the effect on sovereign bonds is found to be rather heterogeneous (in terms of size and sign) and primarily …
The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland
2011
Abstract A substantial body of stylized facts and empirical evidence exists regarding the relationships between financial variables and the macroeconomy in the United States. However, the question of whether this evidence is consistent with the cases of small open economies is less known. This paper focuses on the forecasting content of stock returns and volatility vs. the term spread for GDP, private consumption, industrial production and the inflation rate in Finland. Our results suggest that during normal times, the term spread is a much better tool than stock market variables for predicting real activity. However, during exceptional times, such as the recent financial crisis, the foreca…
Revisiting the Duration Dependence in the US Stock Market Cycles
2022
There is a big controversy among both investment professionals and academics regarding how the termination probability of a market state depends on its age. Using more than two centuries of data on the broad US stock market index, we revisit the duration dependence in bull and bear markets. Our results suggest that the duration dependence for both bull and bear markets is a nonlinear function of the state age. It appears that the duration dependence in bear markets is strictly positive. For 93% of the bull markets, the duration dependence is also positive. Only about 7% of the bull markets, those with the longest durations, do not exhibit positive duration dependence. We also compare a few …
Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging
2021
En este artículo analizamos los determinantes del stock de FDI saliente de Japón para el período 1996–2017. Este período es especialmente relevante ya que abarca un proceso de creciente globalización económica y dos crisis financieras. Para ello, consideramos un amplio conjunto de variables candidatas basadas en la teoría, así como en análisis empíricos previos. Nuestra muestra incluye un total de 27 países anfitriones. Seleccionamos las covariables utilizando una metodología basada en datos, el análisis Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). Además, también analizamos si estos determinantes cambian según el grado de desarrollo (emergentes vs desarrollados) o las áreas geográficas (UE vs Asia Orie…
How does fiscal policy react to wealth composition and asset prices?
2012
Prova tipográfica
- STRATEGIC PIGOUVIAN TAXATION, STOCK EXTERNALITIES AND POLLUTING NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES
2001
This paper extends Wirl and Dockner¿s (1995) model designed to analyze the long-term bilateral interdependence between a resource exporting cartel and a coalition of resource importing country governments. Firstly, depletion effects are introduced into the analysis of the intertemporal properties of a pigouvian tax. Secondly, the feedback Stackelberg equilibria are computed. The results show that the dynamics of the tax depends critically on the level of the marginal environmental damage. Moreover, they also show that the tax defined by the Markov-perfect Nash equilibrium is a neutral pigouvian tax in the sense that it only corrects the market inefficiency caused by the stock externality. H…
Aggregate uncertainty and sectoral productivity growth: The role of credit constraints
2016
Abstract We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. The mechanism at play is that during periods of high uncertainty, firms that are credit constrained switch the composition of investment by reducing productivity-enhancing investment—such as on ICT capital—which is more subject to liquidity risks (Aghion et al., 2010). The effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth of 25 industries from 18 advanced econo…
The Influence of the Endogenous and Exogenous Factors on Credit Institutions’ Return on Equity
2015
Abstract The research’s purpose is to study the credit institutions’ performance, from the shareholders’ point of view, through return on equity (ROE). It aims to identify a dependency relationship between return on equity (ROE) and endogenous factors (the growth rate of credit portfolio, the growth rate provisions, the solvency ratio), on the one hand and, on the other hand between ROE and the exogenous ones (GDP and inflation rate). The research was done over an horizon of 10 years (2004-2013) on the evolution of the return on equity indicator of two credit institutions listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (Carpathian Commercial Bank SA and Banca Transilvania SA), highlights their vulnerabi…
The Influence of Oil Price on Renewable Energy Stock Prices: An Analysis for Entrepreneurs
2020
Abstract This study investigates the relationship between oil price fluctuations and renewable energy stock returns using daily data on Brent crude oil prices and global renewable energy stock market indices between 29 November 2010 and 18 February 2020. The investigation is based on the existing evidence on positive correlations between stock prices and oil prices, but it also considers the shift from non-renewable to renewable sources of energy. A two-stage GARCH(1,1) model and a Granger causality test were applied. Our results show that volatility clustering is present in the renewable energy companies‘ stock prices, but, oil price volatility does not seem to induce any significant effec…
The informational role of thin options markets: Empirical evidence from the Spanish case
2016
This study investigates the informational role of thin options markets, specifically the Spanish options market. Firstly, we examine the effect of options markets by analysing stock market reaction to earnings news, conditional on the availability of options markets. Secondly, we examine options trading activity before the release of earnings news (including the announcement period). The results show that the impact on prices before the earnings release is significantly bigger when options trading is available. Moreover, the dissemination of earnings news is associated with significant unusual activity in the options market due to informed trading, especially when the earnings surprise is h…