Search results for "thing"

Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data

2007

Abstract This paper provides a formulation for the additive Holt–Winters forecasting procedure that simplifies both obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of all unknowns, smoothing parameters and initial conditions, and the computation of point forecasts and reliable predictive intervals. The stochastic component of the model is introduced by means of additive, uncorrelated, homoscedastic and Normal errors, and then the joint distribution of the data vector, a multivariate Normal distribution, is obtained. In the case where a data transformation was used to improve the fit of the model, cumulative forecasts are obtained here using a Monte-Carlo approximation. This paper describes the metho…

Confidence bands for Horvitz-Thompson estimators using sampled noisy functional data

2013

When collections of functional data are too large to be exhaustively observed, survey sampling techniques provide an effective way to estimate global quantities such as the population mean function. Assuming functional data are collected from a finite population according to a probabilistic sampling scheme, with the measurements being discrete in time and noisy, we propose to first smooth the sampled trajectories with local polynomials and then estimate the mean function with a Horvitz-Thompson estimator. Under mild conditions on the population size, observation times, regularity of the trajectories, sampling scheme, and smoothing bandwidth, we prove a Central Limit theorem in the space of …

2021

Abstract We prove the existence of a smoothing for a toroidal crossing space under mild assumptions. By linking log structures with infinitesimal deformations, the result receives a very compact form for normal crossing spaces. The main approach is to study log structures that are incoherent on a subspace of codimension 2 and prove a Hodge–de Rham degeneration theorem for such log spaces that also settles a conjecture by Danilov. We show that the homotopy equivalence between Maurer–Cartan solutions and deformations combined with Batalin–Vilkovisky theory can be used to obtain smoothings. The construction of new Calabi–Yau and Fano manifolds as well as Frobenius manifold structures on moduli…

Multiple smoothing parameters selection in additive regression quantiles

2021

We propose an iterative algorithm to select the smoothing parameters in additive quantile regression, wherein the functional forms of the covariate effects are unspecified and expressed via B-spline bases with difference penalties on the spline coefficients. The proposed algorithm relies on viewing the penalized coefficients as random effects from the symmetric Laplace distribution, and it turns out to be very efficient and particularly attractive with multiple smooth terms. Through simulations we compare our proposal with some alternative approaches, including the traditional ones based on minimization of the Schwarz Information Criterion. A real-data analysis is presented to illustrate t…

Influence of rounding errors on the quality of heuristic optimization algorithms

2011

Abstract Search space smoothing and related heuristic optimization algorithms provide an alternative approach to simulated annealing and its variants: while simulated annealing traverses barriers in the energy landscape at finite temperatures, search space smoothing intends to remove these barriers, so that a greedy algorithm is sufficient to find the global minimum. Several formulas for smoothing the energy landscape have already been applied, one of them making use of the finite numerical precision on a computer. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate the effect of finite numerical accuracy on the quality of results achieved with heuristic optimization algorithms. We present computation…

Bayesian Smoothing in the Estimation of the Pair Potential Function of Gibbs Point Processes

1999

A flexible Bayesian method is suggested for the pair potential estimation with a high-dimensional parameter space. The method is based on a Bayesian smoothing technique, commonly applied in statistical image analysis. For the calculation of the posterior mode estimator a new Monte Carlo algorithm is developed. The method is illustrated through examples with both real and simulated data, and its extension into truly nonparametric pair potential estimation is discussed.

Comprehensive estimation of input signals and dynamics in biochemical reaction networks

2012

Abstract Motivation: Cellular information processing can be described mathematically using differential equations. Often, external stimulation of cells by compounds such as drugs or hormones leading to activation has to be considered. Mathematically, the stimulus is represented by a time-dependent input function. Parameters such as rate constants of the molecular interactions are often unknown and need to be estimated from experimental data, e.g. by maximum likelihood estimation. For this purpose, the input function has to be defined for all times of the integration interval. This is usually achieved by approximating the input by interpolation or smoothing of the measured data. This procedu…

A decision support system methodology for forecasting of time series based on soft computing

2006

Exponential procedures are widely used as forecasting techniques for inventory control and business planning. A number of modifications to the generalized exponential smoothing (Holt-Winters) approach to forecasting univariate time series is presented, which have been adapted into a tool for decision support systems. This methodology unifies the phases of estimation and model selection into just one optimization framework which permits the identification of robust solutions. This procedure may provide forecasts from different versions of exponential smoothing by fitting the updated formulas of Holt-Winters and selects the best method using a fuzzy multicriteria approach. The elements of the…

A comparison of nonparametric methods in the graduation of mortality: Application to data from the Valencia Region (Spain)

2006

[EN] The nonparametric graduation of mortality data aims to estimate death rates by carrying out a smoothing of the crude rates obtained directly from original data. The main difference with regard to parametric models is that the assumption of an age-dependent function is unnecessary, which is advantageous when the information behind the model is unknown, as one cause of error is often the choice of an inappropriate model. This paper reviews the various alternatives and presents their application to mortality data from the Valencia Region, Spain. The comparison leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a smoothing by means of Generalised Additive Models (GAM) with splines. The most…

The Induced Smoothed lasso: A practical framework for hypothesis testing in high dimensional regression.

2020

This paper focuses on hypothesis testing in lasso regression, when one is interested in judging statistical significance for the regression coefficients in the regression equation involving a lot of covariates. To get reliable p-values, we propose a new lasso-type estimator relying on the idea of induced smoothing which allows to obtain appropriate covariance matrix and Wald statistic relatively easily. Some simulation experiments reveal that our approach exhibits good performance when contrasted with the recent inferential tools in the lasso framework. Two real data analyses are presented to illustrate the proposed framework in practice.