Search results for "uncertainty analysis."
showing 10 items of 71 documents
Uncertainty evaluation in the measurements for the electric power quality analysis
2013
The paper deals with the uncertainty estimation in the measurements performed to assess the electric power quality. In a first steps, according to the 'ISO - Guide to Expression of the Uncertainty in Measurements' all the error sources, which give a significant contribution to the combined uncertainty associated to the measurement results, are identified. Successively, in order to analyze how the errors propagate through the measurement chain, a Monte Carlo based approach is proposed. The method exploits an ad-hoc developed simulator of the measurement process, which takes into account the particular way of propagation of all the identified error sources. Eventually, with the aim of validat…
Assessment of data and parameter uncertainties in integrated water-quality model
2011
In integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones depending on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and uncertainty of measurements in the different parts of the system. Uncertainty basically propagates throughout a chain of models in which simulation output from upstream models is transferred to the downstream ones as input. The overall uncertainty can differ from the simple sum of uncertainties generated in each sub-model, dep…
A composite indicator for water meter replacement in an urban distribution network
2012
In water supply management, volumetric water meter are typically used to measure users' consumption. With water meters, utilities can collect useful data for billing, assess the water balance of the system, and identify failures in the network, water theft and anomalous user behaviour. Despite their importance, these instruments are characterised by intrinsic errors that cause so-called apparent losses. The complexity of the physical phenomena associated with metering errors in aging water meters does not allow meter replacement to be guided by single parameters, such as the meter age or the total volume passed through the meter. This paper presents a meter replacement strategy based on a c…
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an integrated membrane bioreactor model
2015
Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, although can be of primarily importance in mathematical modelling approaches, are scarcely applied in the field of membrane bioreactor (MBR). An integrated mathematical model for MBR is applied with the final aim to pin down sources of uncertainty in MBR modelling. The uncertainty analysis has been performed combining global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). The model and methodology were applied to a University Cape Town pilot plant. Results show that the complexity of the modelled processes and the propagation effect from the influent to the effluent increase the uncertainty of the model predicti…
A PC-based wattmeter for accurate measurements in sinusoidal and distorted conditions: Setup and experimental characterization
2012
This paper presents the development of a high-accuracy sampling wattmeter, which can be employed with both sinusoidal and distorted input signals. The proposed personal computer (PC)-based system is a simple, portable, and low-cost solution because it is based on two commercial data acquisition boards connected to a common PC. Owing to this solution, the voltage is sensed directly, avoiding expensive voltage dividers, while the current is sensed by means of a noninductive current shunt. Commercial software is also used for data processing and implementation of the virtual instrument. The setup of the PC-based wattmeter is described, with a detailed description of the correction strategy of …
Error and Uncertainty Analysis of Non-Uniform Residual Stress Evaluation by Using the Ring-Core Method
2016
Like other mechanical methods used for the residual stress evaluation on a generic structural component, the Ring-Core Method (RCM) is potentially subjected to various error sources that in some particular experimental conditions can lead to significant errors and/or uncertainties on the computed residual stresses. The accuracy of the residual stresses computed by the RCM can be improved by a proper error analysis that allows the user to correct the systematic errors, as well as to evaluate the remaining stress uncertainty due to the random errors. Therefore, in order to give a contribution to the accuracy of the RCM, in the present work the list of the main error sources is presented and t…
A Monte Carlo Method for the Auto-Evaluation of the Uncertainties in the Analog-to-Digital Conversion-Based Measurements
2004
This paper concerns with the measurement uncertainty estimation in the analog‐to‐digital conversion‐based instruments. By using an ad hoc developed software tool, the Monte Carlo method is applied in order to assess the uncertainties associated with the measurement results, overcoming the possible inapplicability of the pure theoretical approach prescribed in the ISO – “Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement”. By implementing the software tool in the measurement instruments, the proposed approach can be utilized in order to make the instrument itself able to auto‐estimate the measurement uncertainties.
Uncertainty related to climate change in the assessment of the DDF curve parameters
2017
In the context of climate change, the evaluation of the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves has become a critical issue. Neglecting future rainfall variations could result in an overestimation/underestimation of DDF parameters and, consequently, of the design storm. In this study, uncertainty analysis was integrated into trend analysis to provide an estimate of trends that cannot actually be rigorously verified. A Bayesian procedure was suggested for the updating of DDF curve parameters and to evaluate the uncertainty related to their assessment. The proposed procedure also allowed identification of the years of a series that contributed most to the overall uncertainty relat…
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Wastewater Treatment Plants on a Plantwide Scale: Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis
2016
This paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a mathematical model for greenhouse gas emission (GHG) and energy consumption assessment in wastewater treatment plants. A sensitivity analysis was carried out (using two different methods) to determine which model factors have the greatest effect on the predicted values of the GHG production. Further, an uncertainty analysis was carried out to quantify the uncertainty of the key model outputs, such as carbon dioxide production from activated sludge treatment. The results show that influent fractionation factors, which characterize influent composition, have an important role on direct and indirect GHGs production and emission.…
Integrated urban water modelling with uncertainty analysis
2006
In the last twenty years, the scientific world has paid particular care towards the problems that involve the environment. Accordingly, several researches were developed to describe phenomena that take place during both wet and dry periods and to increase the knowledge in this field. In particular, attention was addressed towards the problems linked with receiving water body pollution because of the impact of rain water in the urban environment. In order to obtain a good description of the problem, it is important to analyse both quantity and quality aspects connected with all the transformation phases that characterise the urban water cycle. Today, according to this point, integrated model…