Search results for "uncertainty."
showing 10 items of 972 documents
THE SHAPLEY-SOLIDARITY VALUE FOR GAMES WITH A COALITION STRUCTURE
2013
A value for games with a coalition structure is introduced, where the rules guiding cooperation among the members of the same coalition are different from the interaction rules among coalitions. In particular, players inside a coalition exhibit a greater degree of solidarity than they are willing to use with players outside their coalition. The Shapley value is therefore used to compute the aggregate payoffs for the coalitions, and the solidarity value to obtain the payoffs for the players inside each coalition.
Shall we follow? Impact of reputation concern on information security managers’ investment decisions
2020
Information security (infosec) is important for organizations. While budgeting for infosec is a crucial resource allocation decision, infosec managers may choose to follow other fellow experts’ recommendations or baseline practices. The present paper uses reputational herding theory to explain the decision made by infosec managers to use a “let's follow others” strategy in this context. Based on a sample of 106 organizations in Finland, we find that infosec managers’ ability to accurately predict the benefit of infosec investment, as well as their reputations, have significant effects on motivating them to discount their own information. Infosec managers’ discounting of their own informatio…
Is the European Social Progress Index robust? Implications for the design of European Union regional Cohesion Policy
2023
The European Social Progress Index (EU-SPI) is a composite index launched by the European Commission in 2016 to assess social progress. It is constructed using non-economic indicators, and is intended to serve as a tool for European regional policies. This paper shows that the 2020 release of the index is robust to multiple alternative designs, and thus suitable for policymaking. The EU-SPI and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) are positively correlated, although they are in no way substitutes. These findings suggest that the EU-SPI could complement the GDPpc as an instrument to determine eligibility and achieve a more citizen-oriented allocation of European Cohesion Policy funds.
Standard vs random dictator games: On the effects of role uncertainty and framing on generosity
2021
This project was conducted while Ernesto Mesa-Vázquez was visiting Universidad Loyola Andalucia. He wants to particularly thank Pablo Brañas-Garza and Diego Jorrat for continued guidance and assessment with the experimental design. Álvaro Núñez-Bermúdez and the faculty members of the Economics and Business Sciences department at the University of Seville were very helpful in providing assistance for running the experiment. The paper has benefited from comments and suggestions provided by Maria Paz Espinosa, Giuseppe Attanassi, José Enrique Vila, Iván Arribas, Marco Faillo, Cristina Borra and participants at the Loyola Behavioral Lab and the Early Career Researchers in Experimental Economics…
Centres and peripheries in Finland: Granger causality tests using panel data
2009
Abstract Despite their importance from a policy point of view, empirical studies on the effects of growth centres in their regions are rare. This paper analyses mutual relationships between growth processes in centres and their surrounding hinterlands in 19 Finnish regions. Annual population data from the period 1970–2004 are used. A novel testing procedure based on an extension of the Granger causality definition in a panel data context is applied. Heterogeneity between regions is allowed. Both the homogeneous non-causality hypothesis and the homogeneous causality hypothesis are rejected. Causal processes prove to be heterogeneous. Causality from centres to peripheries is found for nine re…
The influence of geography on the spatial agglomeration of production in the European Union
2012
Abstract We investigate the relative impact of geographic features on the location of production in the European Union. Specifically, we attempt to quantify how much of the spatial pattern of GDP can be attributed to exogenous first-nature elements alone and how much can be derived from endogenous second-nature factors. In order to disentangle both effects empirically, we control for second-nature factors. A method based on the decomposition of the per capita GDP variance is applied to a panel of 1,171 European NUTS 3 regions for 2006. We demonstrate that variable and model misspecifications may bias results unless proper allowance is made for spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogenei…
Uncertainty in environmental and hydrological mathematical modelling
2012
Engineers are increasingly called to deal with practical problems related to water resources management, risk analysis, environmental engineering and water pollution. Providing a way forward to solve the above questions requires setting up mathematical models that are affected by uncertainty, that in many cases is relevant. In fact, the theories that are employed for providing solutions to engineer’s problems are not exact sciences: even if it is methodologically rigorous, it is incapable of producing precise results, for the presence of inherent randomness that translates in indeterminacy and therefore uncertainty. To cope with uncertainty is a challenge for scientists and practitioners, t…
National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological st…
2011
Summary Background Data for trends in serum cholesterol are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. Previous analyses of trends in serum cholesterol were limited to a few countries, with no consistent and comparable global analysis. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean serum total cholesterol. Methods We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean serum total cholesterol for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (321 country-years and 3…
Grip Force Adjustments Reflect Prediction of Dynamic Consequences in Varying Gravitoinertial Fields
2018
International audience; Humans have a remarkable ability to adjust the way they manipulate tools through a genuine regulation of grip force according to the task. However, rapid changes in the dynamical context may challenge this skill, as shown in many experimental approaches. Most experiments adopt perturbation paradigms that affect only one sensory modality. We hypothesize that very fast adaptation can occur if coherent information from multiple sensory modalities is provided to the central nervous system. Here, we test whether participants can switch between different and never experienced dynamical environments induced by centrifugation of the body. Seven participants lifted an object …
Quantifying Excess Deaths Related to Heatwaves under Climate Change Scenarios: A multicountry time series modelling study
2018
Background: Heatwaves are a critical public health problem. There will be an increase in the frequency and severity of heatwaves under changing climate. However, evidence about the impacts of climate change on heatwave-related mortality at a global scale is limited. Methods and findings: We collected historical daily time series of mean temperature and mortality for all causes or nonexternal causes, in periods ranging from January 1, 1984, to December 31, 2015, in 412 communities within 20 countries/regions. We estimated heatwave–mortality associations through a two-stage time series design. Current and future daily mean temperature series were projected under four scenarios of greenhouse g…