Search results for "uncertainty."
showing 10 items of 972 documents
Uncertain outcome presentations bias decisions: experimental evidence from Finland and Italy
2016
Even in their everyday lives people are expected to make difficult decisions objectively and rationally, no matter how complex or uncertain the situation. In this research, we study how the format of presentation and the amount of presented information concerning risky events influence the decision-making process, and the propensity to take risk in decision makers. The results of an exploratory survey conducted in Finland and in Italy suggest that decision-making behavior changes according to the way the information is presented. We provide experimental evidence that different representations of expected outcomes create distinct cognitive biases and as a result affect the decisions made. Th…
Modeling risk perception in ATIS context through Fuzzy Logic
2011
Abstract This research is aimed at investigating the effect of accuracy of ATIS (Advanced Traveller Information Systems) in terms of route choices and travellers concordance to informative system. A Stated Preference Experiment has been made by using a Travel Simulator developed at the Technische Universiteit of Delft (The Netherlands). During the experiment respondents have been asked to make repeated route choices in presence of ATIS. Two kinds of information have been tested: descriptive (respondents are provided with the estimated travel times on each route), and prescriptive (respondents are provided with the estimated shortest route). For each kind of information four levels of accura…
Determining the appropriate timing of the next forest inventory: incorporating forest owner risk preferences and the uncertainty of forest data quali…
2017
Key message The timing to conduct new forest inventories should be based on the requirements of the decision maker. Importance should be placed on the objectives of the decision maker and his/her risk preferences related to those objectives. Context The appropriate use of pertinent and available information is paramount in any decision-making process. Within forestry, a new forest inventory is typically conducted prior to creating a forest management plan. The acquisition of new forest inventory data is justified by the simple statement of “good decisions require good data.” Aims By integrating potential risk preferences, we examine the specific needs to collect new forest information. Meth…
Is integration of Uncertainty Management and The Last Planner System a good idea?
2018
The Last Planner System (LPS) is a tool for project planning and control, and is an important contribution from Lean Construction. LPS focuses on scheduling, task coordination and time management. Uncertainty Management (UM) is a key element in Project Management, where uncertainty is the totality of opportunities (potential upsides) and risks (potential downsides). UM addresses all types of uncertainty (related to cost, time, quality, scope, safety, customer satisfaction, company reputation, etc.). The aim of UM is to exploit the opportunities and reduce the risks. Two construction companies involved in this research are working with both LPS and UM. One has extensive experience with LPS, …
Bayesian joint modeling of bivariate longitudinal and competing risks data: An application to study patient-ventilator asynchronies in critical care …
2017
Mechanical ventilation is a common procedure of life support in intensive care. Patient-ventilator asynchronies (PVAs) occur when the timing of the ventilator cycle is not simultaneous with the timing of the patient respiratory cycle. The association between severity markers and the events death or alive discharge has been acknowledged before, however, little is known about the addition of PVAs data to the analyses. We used an index of asynchronies (AI) to measure PVAs and the SOFA (sequential organ failure assessment) score to assess overall severity. To investigate the added value of including the AI, we propose a Bayesian joint model of bivariate longitudinal and competing risks data. Th…
Uncertainty at Work How to Regulate it through Leadership in order to improve the Quality of Work Life?
2022
This thesis manuscript focuses on factors able to regulate the uncertainty of people at work. Due to the constant evolution of the organizational world, uncertainty is increasingly becoming a factor with which to combine in different contexts about work. This factor constitutes a risk for individuals due to its aversive nature. In this perspective we have been interested, on the one hand, about theories concerning the concept of uncertainty. This allowed us to better understand and delimit the concept. On the other hand, we looked for ways to regulate uncertainty through the concept of leadership. This led us to consider this regulation as being either potentially possible through a directi…
Characterisation of two new radiochromic gel dosimeters TruView™ and ClearView™ in combination with the vista™ optical CT scanner: A feasibility study
2018
This study aims at characterising the properties of TruView™ and ClearView™ two new gel dosimeters (Modus Medical Devices Inc.) and at studying the feasibility of relative dosimetry using these dosimeters and the Vista™ Optical CT scanner to accurately evaluate dose.In this work, we investigated key dosimetric aspects (dose response, energy and dose rate dependence) and stability of these radiochromic gels initiated in preliminary works (Huet et al., 2017; Colnot et al., 2017) using spectrophotometric measurements. Moreover, by mean of optical CT scanning (Vista™), their performances to measure relative depth dose (PDD) and cross profiles were analysed.TruView™ and ClearView™ present a line…
Management of uncertain pairwise comparisons in AHP through probabilistic concepts
2019
Abstract Fast and judicious decision-making is paramount for the success of many activities and processes. However, various degrees of difficulty may affect the achievement of effective and optimal solutions. Decisions should ideally meet the best trade-off among as many of the involved factors as possible, especially in the case of complex problems. Substantial cognitive and technical skills are indispensable, while not always sufficient, to carry out optimal evaluations. One of the most common causes of wrong decisions derives from uncertainty and vagueness in making forecasts or attributing judgments. The literature shows numerous efforts towards the optimization and modeling of uncertai…
Algorithmic differentiation for cloud schemes (IFS Cy43r3) using CoDiPack (v1.8.1)
2019
Abstract. Numerical models in atmospheric sciences not only need to approximate the flow equations on a suitable computational grid, they also need to include subgrid effects of many non-resolved physical processes. Among others, the formation and evolution of cloud particles is an example of such subgrid processes. Moreover, to date there is no universal mathematical description of a cloud, hence many cloud schemes have been proposed and these schemes typically contain several uncertain parameters. In this study, we propose the use of algorithmic differentiation (AD) as a method to identify parameters within the cloud scheme, to which the output of the cloud scheme is most sensitive. We il…
Algorithmic Differentiation for Cloud Schemes
2019
<p>Numerical models in atmospheric sciences do not only need to approximate the flow equations on a suitable computational grid, they also need to include subgrid effects of many non-resolved physical processes. Among others, the formation and evolution of cloud particles is an example of such subgrid processes. Moreover, to date there is no universal mathematical description of a cloud, hence many cloud schemes were proposed and these schemes typically contain several uncertain parameters. In this study, we propose the use of algorithmic differentiation (AD) as a method to identify parameters within the cloud scheme, to which the output of the cloud scheme is most sensitive.…