Search results for "uncertainty."

Generalization of Jeffreys Divergence-Based Priors for Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

2008

Summary We introduce objective proper prior distributions for hypothesis testing and model selection based on measures of divergence between the competing models; we call them divergence-based (DB) priors. DB priors have simple forms and desirable properties like information (finite sample) consistency and are often similar to other existing proposals like intrinsic priors. Moreover, in normal linear model scenarios, they reproduce the Jeffreys–Zellner–Siow priors exactly. Most importantly, in challenging scenarios such as irregular models and mixture models, DB priors are well defined and very reasonable, whereas alternative proposals are not. We derive approximations to the DB priors as w…

Prior-based Bayesian information criterion

2019

We present a new approach to model selection and Bayes factor determination, based on Laplace expansions (as in BIC), which we call Prior-based Bayes Information Criterion (PBIC). In this approach, the Laplace expansion is only done with the likelihood function, and then a suitable prior distribution is chosen to allow exact computation of the (approximate) marginal likelihood arising from the Laplace approximation and the prior. The result is a closed-form expression similar to BIC, but now involves a term arising from the prior distribution (which BIC ignores) and also incorporates the idea that different parameters can have different effective sample sizes (whereas BIC only allows one ov…

Humanities Data inR

2016

A geostatistical approach for dynamic life tables: The effect of mortality on remaining lifetime and annuities

2010

Dynamic life tables arise as an alternative to the standard (static) life table, with the aim of incorporating the evolution of mortality over time. The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for projected mortality rates in the US is one of the most outstanding and has been used a great deal since then. Different versions of the model have been developed but all of them, together with other parametric models, consider the observed mortality rates as independent observations. This is a difficult hypothesis to justify when looking at the graph of the residuals obtained with any of these methods. Methods of adjustment and prediction based on geostatistical techniques which expl…

Local inhomogeneous second-order characteristics for spatio-temporal point processes occurring on linear networks

2022

AbstractPoint processes on linear networks are increasingly being considered to analyse events occurring on particular network-based structures. In this paper, we extend Local Indicators of Spatio-Temporal Association (LISTA) functions to the non-Euclidean space of linear networks, allowing to obtain information on how events relate to nearby events. In particular, we propose the local version of two inhomogeneous second-order statistics for spatio-temporal point processes on linear networks, the K- and the pair correlation functions. We put particular emphasis on the local K-functions, deriving come theoretical results which enable us to show that these LISTA functions are useful for diagn…

Inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes on linear networks for visitors’ stops data

2022

We analyse the spatio-temporal distribution of visitors' stops by touristic attractions in Palermo (Italy) using theory of stochastic point processes living on linear networks. We first propose an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model, with a separable parametric spatio-temporal first-order intensity. We account for the spatial interaction among points on the given network, fitting a Gibbs point process model with mixed effects for the purely spatial component. This allows us to study first-order and second-order properties of the point pattern, accounting both for the spatio-temporal clustering and interaction and for the spatio-temporal scale at which they operate. Due to the strong d…

Generalized Symmetry Models for Hypercubic Concordance Tables

2000

Summary Frequency data obtained classifying a sample of 'units' by the same categorical variable repeatedly over 'components', can be arranged in a hypercubic concordance table (h.c.t.). This kind of data naturally arises in a number of different areas such as longitudinal studies, studies using matched and clustered data, item-response analysis, agreement analysis. In spite of the substantial diversity of the mechanisms that can generate them, data arranged in a h.c.t. can all be analyzed via models of symmetry and quasi-symmetry, which exploit the special structure of the h.c.t. The paper extends the definition of such models to any dimension, introducing the class of generalized symmetry…

Government Size, the Role of Commitments*

2011

We explore the hypothesis that long-term commitments affect the dynamics of government expenditure. With the aid of a simple median-voter model we interpret the pattern of increasing-then-constant tax rates observed in OECD countries in the second half of the last century: persistence of public expenditure and a lower bound on new interventions will push government size upward, and preferences of the electorate put a halt to this growth at some point. In this view, the fiscal policy variable is seen to consist of only a part of the total expenditure, the rest being predetermined by its past level.

Imperfect information and consumer inflation expectations:evidence from microdata

2017

This paper explores which factors trigger an adjustment in consumers’ inflation expectations and looks at the implications regarding forecast errors. We find support for imperfect information models, as inflation volatility and news trigger an adjustment in expectations. Furthermore, we document that individual expectations become more accurate if they have been adjusted.

Social capital and economic growth in Europe: nonlinear trends and heterogeneous regional effects

2016

After two decades of academic debate on the social capital-growth nexus, discussion still remains open. Most of the literature so far, however, has followed the one-size-its-all approach, neglecting that the great disparities across geographical units might have implications in this relationship. This article analyzes the role of two social capital indicators on the growth of 237 European regions in the period 1995–2007 by implementing a set of both parametric and non- parametric regressions. Whereas the former impose a linear functional form for the parameters, the latter relax this assumption providing a flexible frame in which the functional form is given by the data. The technique also …