Search results for "uncertainty."
showing 10 items of 972 documents
Quantitative ergodicity for some switched dynamical systems
2012
International audience; We provide quantitative bounds for the long time behavior of a class of Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes with state space Rd × E where E is a finite set. The continuous component evolves according to a smooth vector field that switches at the jump times of the discrete coordinate. The jump rates may depend on the whole position of the process. Under regularity assumptions on the jump rates and stability conditions for the vector fields we provide explicit exponential upper bounds for the convergence to equilibrium in terms of Wasserstein distances. As an example, we obtain convergence results for a stochastic version of the Morris-Lecar model of neurobiology.
Gossip: The Architecture of SpreadPlots
2003
A spreadplot is a visualization that simultaneously shows several different views of a dataset or model. The individual views can be dynamic, can support high-interaction direct manipulation, and can be algebraically linked with each other, possibly via an underlying statistical model. Thus, when a data analyst changes the information shown in one view of a statistical model, the changes can be processed by the model and instantly represented in the other views. Spreadplots simplify the analyst's task when many different plots are relevant to the analysis at hand, as is the case in regression analysis, where there are many plots that can be used for model building and diagnosis. On the othe…
Bayesian Design of “Successful” Replications
2002
Replication of experiments is commonin applied research. However, systematic studies of the goals and motivations of a “replication” are rare. As a consequence, there does not seem to be a precise notion of what a “success” when replicating means. This article discusses some of the possible goals for replication; this leads to different (but precise) notions of “success” when replicating. Bayesian hierarchical models allow for a flexible and explicit incorporation of the assumed relationship among the experiments. Bayesian predictive distributions are a natural tool to compute the probability of the replication being successful, and hence to design the replication so that the probability of…
Portfolio optimisation with strictly positive transaction costs and impulse control
1998
One crucial assumption in modern portfolio theory of continuous-time models is the no transaction cost assumption. This assumption normally leads to trading strategies with infinite variation. However, following such a strategy in the presence of transaction costs will lead to immediate ruin. We present an impulse control approach where the investor can change his portfolio only finitely often in finite time intervals. Further, we consider transaction costs including a fixed and a proportional cost component. For the solution of the resulting control problems we present a formal optimal stopping approach and an approach using quasi-variational inequalities. As an application we derive a non…
A Bayesian SIRS model for the analysis of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia, Spain
2014
We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model in discrete time to understand respiratory syncytial virus dynamics in the region of Valencia, Spain. A SIRS model based on ordinary differential equations has also been proposed to describe RSV dynamics in the region of Valencia. However, this continuous-time deterministic model is not suitable when the initial number of infected individuals is small. Stochastic epidemic models based on a probability of disease transmission provide a more natural description of the spread of infectious diseases. In addition, by allowing the transmission rate to vary stochastically over time, the proposed model provides…
Eleccion de variables en regresion lineal un problema de decision
1986
A general structure for the problem of selection of variables in regression is proposed using the decision theory framework. In particular, some results for the choice of the best linear normal homocedastic model are obtained when the main purpose is either to specify the predictive distribution over the response variable or to obtain a point estimate of it. A comparison of our results with the most widespread classical ones is presented
Asymptotic efficiency of the calibration estimator in a high-dimensional data setting
2022
Abstract In a finite population sampling survey, auxiliary information is commonly used to improve the Horvitz-Thompson estimators and calibration has been extensively used by national statistical agencies over the last decades for that purpose. This method enables to make estimators consistent with known totals of auxiliary variables and to reduce variance if the calibration variables are explanatory for the variable of interest. Nowadays, it is not unusual anymore to have high-dimensional auxiliary data sets and adding too much additional calibration variables may increase the variance of calibration estimators. We study in this paper the asymptotic efficiency of the calibration estimator…
An extended continuous mapping theorem for outer almost sure weak convergence
2019
International audience; We prove an extended continuous mapping theorem for outer almost sure weak convergence in a metric space, a notion that is used in bootstrap empirical processes theory. Then we make use of those results to establish the consistency of several bootstrap procedures in empirical likelihood theory for functional parameters.
IndElec: A Software for Analyzing Party Systems and Electoral Systems
2011
IndElec is a software addressed to compute a wide range of indices from electoral data, which are intended to analyze both party systems and electoral systems in political studies. Further, IndElec can calculate such indices from electoral data at several levels of aggregation, even when the acronyms of some political parties change across districts. As the amount of information provided by IndElec may be considerable, this software also aids the user in the analysis of electoral data through three capabilities. First, IndElec automatically elaborates preliminary descriptive statistical reports of computed indices. Second, IndElec saves the computed information into text files in data matri…
Meta-work and the analogous Jarzynski relation in ensembles of dynamical trajectories
2014
Recently there has been growing interest in extending the thermodynamic method from static configurations to dynamical trajectories. In this approach, ensembles of trajectories are treated in an analogous manner to ensembles of configurations in equilibrium statistical mechanics: generating functions of dynamical observables are interpreted as partition sums, and the statistical properties of trajectory ensembles are encoded in free-energy functions that can be obtained through large-deviation methods in a suitable large time limit. This establishes what one can call a 'thermodynamics of trajectories'. In this paper we go a step further, and make a first connection to fluctuation theorems b…