Search results for "uncertainty."
showing 10 items of 972 documents
Observation of the rare B(s)(0) + decay from the combined analysis of CMS and LHCb data.
2015
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported licence.-- et al.
Estimating finite mixtures of semi-Markov chains: an application to the segmentation of temporal sensory data
2019
Summary In food science, it is of great interest to obtain information about the temporal perception of aliments to create new products, to modify existing products or more generally to understand the mechanisms of perception. Temporal dominance of sensations is a technique to measure temporal perception which consists in choosing sequentially attributes describing a food product over tasting. This work introduces new statistical models based on finite mixtures of semi-Markov chains to describe data collected with the temporal dominance of sensations protocol, allowing different temporal perceptions for a same product within a population. The identifiability of the parameters of such mixtur…
Uncertainty in urban stormwater quality modelling: The effect of acceptability threshold in the GLUE methodology
2007
Uncertainty analysis in integrated urban drainage modelling is of growing importance in the field of water quality. However, only few studies deal with uncertainty quantification in urban drainage modelling; furthermore, the few existing studies mainly focus on quantitative sewer flow modelling rather than uncertainty in water quality aspects. In this context, the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology was applied for the evaluation of the uncertainty of an integrated urban drainage model and some of its subjective hypotheses have been explored. More specifically, the influence of the subjective choice of the acceptability threshold has been detected in order to ga…
Ultraviolet camera measurements of passive and explosive (Strombolian) sulphur dioxide emissions at Yasur volcano, Vanuatu
2020
Here, we present the first ultraviolet (UV) camera measurements of sulphur dioxide (SO2) flux from Yasur volcano, Vanuatu, for the period 6–9 July 2018. These data yield the first direct gas-measurement-derived calculations of explosion gas masses at Yasur. Yasur typically exhibits persistent passive gas release interspersed with frequent Strombolian explosions. We used compact forms of the “PiCam” Raspberry Pi UV camera system [1,2] powered through solar panels to collect images. Our daily median SO2 fluxes ranged from 4 to 5.1 kg s−1, with a measurement uncertainty of −12.2% to +14.7%, including errors from the gas cell calibration drift, uncertainties in plume direction and distance, and…
A hybrid statistical decision-making optimization approach for groundwater vulnerability considering uncertainty.
2021
Recognizing the vulnerable areas for contamination is a feasible way to protect groundwater resources. The main contribution of the paper is developing a hybrid statistical decision-making model for evaluating the vulnerability of Shiraz aquifer, southern Iran, with modified DRASTIC (depth to the water table, net recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity) by using the genetic algorithm (GA), the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method, and factorial analysis (FA). First, considering the variation of the uncertain parameters, 32 scenarios were defined to perform factorial analysis. Then using the AHP method and GA, DRASTIC parame…
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties
2021
The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to a…
Applicability and consequences of the integration of alternative models for CO2 transfer velocity into a process-based lake model
2019
Freshwater lakes are important in carbon cycling, especially in the boreal zone where many lakes are supersaturated with the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) and emit it to the atmosphere, thus ventilating carbon originally fixed by the terrestrial system. The exchange of CO2 between water and the atmosphere is commonly estimated using simple wind-based parameterizations or models of gas transfer velocity (k). More complex surface renewal models, however, have been shown to yield more correct estimates of k in comparison with direct CO2 flux measurements. We incorporated four gas exchange models with different complexity into a vertical process-based physico-biochemical lake model, MyLak…
Solidarity in games with a coalition structure
2010
Abstract A new axiomatic characterization of the two-step Shapley value Kamijo (2009) is presented based on a solidarity principle of the members of any union: when the game changes due to the addition or deletion of players outside the union, all members of the union will share the same gains/losses.
Perception du risque dépendance et demande d'assurance : une analyse à partir de l'enquête PATER
2013
Dans la littérature économique, de nombreux travaux tentent d'expliquer pourquoi les individus s’assurent aussi peu contre la dépendance. Du côté de l’offre, différents freins possibles au développement du marché de l’assurance dépendance ont d’ores et déjà été pointés du doigt par la littérature. Les estimations récentes montrent néanmoins que les limites imputables à l’offre ne suffisent pas à expliquer le faible développement du marché : même si les assurances étaient moins coûteuses et les couvertures proposées plus larges, la majorité des individus ne souscrirait toujours pas d’assurance. Il est donc nécessaire d’aller trouver des explications du côté de la demande d’assurance dépendan…
Accounting for soil parameter uncertainty in a physically based and distributed approach for rainfall-triggered landslides
2016
In this study we propose a probabilistic approach for coupled distributed hydrological-hillslope stability models that accounts for soil parameters uncertainty at basin scale. The geotechnical and soil retention curve parameters are treated as random variables across the basin and theoretical probability distributions of the Factor of Safety (FS) are estimated. The derived distributions are used to obtain the spatio-temporal dynamics of probability of failure, in terms of parameters uncertainty, conditioned to soil moisture dynamics. The framework has been implemented in the tRIBS-VEGGIE (Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN)-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator-VEGetation Generator fo…