Search results for "value at risk"
showing 10 items of 27 documents
High Frequency Data Analysis in an Emerging and a Developed Market
2002
We compare distributional properties of high frequency (tick by tick) returns of stocks traded at the NASDAQ, NYSE, and BSE (Budapest Stock Exchange). In particular, we model returns with a mixture of a degenerate (zero) and a symmetric stable distribution. We measure time with the number of successive price changes on the market and study the convergence of the index of stability on increasing time horizons. We apply results to calculate expected waiting times to reach given levels of value at risk.
Implicit Public Debt Thresholds: An Empirical Exercise for the Case of Spain
2017
We extend previous work that combines the Value at Risk approach with estimation of the correlation pattern of the macroeconomic determinants of public debt dynamics by means of Vector Auto Regressions (VARs). These estimated models are used to compute the probability that the public debt ratio exceeds a given threshold, by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We apply this methodology to Spanish data and compute time-series probabilities to analyse the possible correlation with market risk assessment, measured by the spread over the German bond. Taking into account the high correlation between the probability of crossing a pre-specified debt threshold and the spread, we go a step further and …
Minimising value-at-risk in a portfolio optimisation problem using a multi-objective genetic algorithm
2011
[EN] In this paper, we develop a general framework for market risk optimisation that focuses on VaR. The reason for this choice is the complexity and problems associated with risk return optimisation (non-convex and non-differential objective function). Our purpose is to obtain VaR efficient frontiers using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (GA) and to show the potential utility of the algorithm to obtain efficient portfolios when the risk measure does not allow calculating an optimal solution. Furthermore, we measure differences between VaR efficient frontiers and variance efficient frontiers in VaR-return space and we evaluate out-sample capacity of portfolios on both bullish and bearis…
Value at risk -laskennan soveltuvuus lentoyhtiölle : case: Finnair oyj
2001
Hedging foreign exchange rate risk: Multi-currency diversification
2016
Abstract This article proposes a multi-currency cross-hedging strategy that minimizes the exchange risk. The use of derivatives in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is not common but, despite its complexity, can be interesting for those with international activities. In particular, the reduction in the exchange risk borne through the use of natural multi-currency cross-hedging is measured, considering Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) for measuring market risk instead of the variance. CVaR is minimized using linear programmes, while a multiobjective genetic algorithm is designed for minimizing VaR, considering two scenarios for each currency. The results obtai…
Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring
2015
Abstract Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed conditional Debt-at-Risk. A multi-period stochastic programming model minimizes the expected cost of debt financing subject to risk limits. It provides an operational model to handle significant aspects of debt restructuring: it collects all debt issues in a common framework, and can include contingent claims, m…
On VaR using modified gaussian copula
2008
The problem of modeling asset returns is one of the most important issue in finance. People generally use Gaussian processes because of their tractable properties for computation. However, it is well known that asset returns are fat-tailed leading to an underestimation of the risk. One of the most recent proposals is to model the interdependence of asset returns, for example in a portfolio, by means of Copulas and choose marginal distributions with fat tail to fit the single asset returns. The aim of the paper is to show first results concerning the evaluation of Portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) using the Gaussian copula, modified by introducing a particular correlation coefficient, and assumi…
Notional defined contributions (NDC): Solvency and risk in Spain
2007
The aim of this article is twofold: to demonstrate the actuarial imbalance in the Spanish pension system in its current form; and to measure the degree of aggregate economic risk to which pensioners are exposed when applying formulas for the calculation of retirement pensions based on notional accounts. The model used generates scenarios for various periods encompassing some 10,000 different permutations of the macroeconomic indices needed to calculate such parameters as initial pension, earnings replacement rate, or internal rate of return and value at risk. The findings are analysed both objectively and subjectively. The main conclusions are that if the projections for the macroeconomic i…
Liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk optimization of a multi-asset portfolio using a vine copula approach
2019
Abstract This paper develops a novel approach to assess liquidity-adjusted Value-at-Risk (LVaR) optimization of multi-asset portfolios based on vine copulas and LVaR models. This framework is applied to stock markets of the G-7 countries, gold, commodities and Bitcoin. The results show that our approach is superior to the classical mean–variance Markowitz portfolio technique in terms of the optimal portfolio selection under a number of realistic operational and budget constraints. We find that both Bitcoin and gold improves the risk-return performance of the G-7 stock portfolio. However, Bitcoin (gold) performs better under a scenario of only long-positions (when short-selling is allowed).
Value-at-Risk and Tsallis statistics: risk analysis of the aerospace sector
2004
In this study, we analyze the aerospace stocks prices in order to characterize the sector behavior. The data analyzed cover the period from January 1987 to April 1999. We present a new index for the aerospace sector and we investigate the statistical characteristics of this index. Our results show that this index is well described by Tsallis distribution. We explore this result and modify the standard Value-at-Risk (VaR), financial risk assessment methodology in order to reflect an asset which obeys Tsallis non-extensive statistics.