Search results for "volatility"
showing 10 items of 245 documents
Multivariate modeling and analysis of regional ocean freight rates
2018
Abstract In this paper, we propose a new multivariate model for the dynamics of regional ocean freight rates. We show that a cointegrated system of regional spot freight rates can be decomposed into a common non-stationary market factor and stationary regional deviations. The resulting integrated CAR process is new to the literature. By interpreting the common market factor as the global arithmetic average of the regional rates, both the market factor and the regional deviations are observable which simplifies the calibration of the model. Moreover, forward contracts on the market factor can be traded in the Forward Freight Agreement (FFA) market. We calibrate the model to historical spot r…
The Interactions between COVID-19 Cases in the USA, the VIX Index and Major Stock Markets
2021
With this study, we aimed to determine (1) the effect of the daily new cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States on the CBOE volatility index (VIX index) and (2) the effect of the VIX index on the major stock markets during the early stage of the pandemic period. To do this, we collected and analysed the daily new cases and death numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic period in the United States and the country indexes of the USA (DJI), Germany (DAX), France (CAC40), England (FTSE100), Italy (MIB), China (SSEC) and Japan (Nikkei225) to determine the impact of the VIX index on the major stock markets. We then subjected this data to the Johansen co-integration test and …
Integrated simulation and optimization models for tracking international fixed income indices
2001
Portfolio managers in the international fixed income markets must address jointly the interest rate risk in each market and the exchange rate volatility across markets. This paper develops integrated simulation and optimization models that address these issues in a common framework. Monte Carlo simulation procedures generate jointly scenarios of interest and exchange rates and, thereby, scenarios of holding period returns of the available securities. The portfolio manager’s risk tolerance is incorporated either through a utility function or a (modified) mean absolute deviation function. The optimization models prescribe asset allocation weights among the different markets and also resolve b…
Dynamic Volatility Weighting in the Presence of Transaction Costs
2015
Numerous empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of dynamic strategies with volatility weighting over time mechanism. These strategies control the portfolio risk over time by adjusting the risk exposure according to updated volatility forecasts. Yet, in order to reap all benefits promised by volatility weighting over time, the composition of the active portfolio must be revised rather frequently. Transaction costs represent a serious obstacle to benefiting from this dynamic risk control technique. In this paper we propose a modified volatility weighting strategy that allows one to reduce dramatically the amount of trading costs. The empirical evidence shows that the advantages of the …
Sectoral Business Cycle Synchronization in the European Union
2007
This paper analyses sectoral business cycle synchronization in an enlarged European Union using annual data for the period 1980-2005. In particular, we try to identify which sector for each country is driving the aggregate output business cycle synchronization. Overall, the sectors that provide the most relevant contribution are Industry, Building and Construction, and Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry. In contrast, the Services sector, the largest one in terms of valued added share, shows a relative low business cycle synchronization and volatility, implying that it contributes only marginally to the aggregate output business cycle synchronization.
The driving factors of new particle formation and growth in the polluted boundary layer
2021
Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Mao Xiao et al. New particle formation (NPF) is a significant source of atmospheric particles, affecting climate and air quality. Understanding the mechanisms involved in urban aerosols is important to develop effective mitigation strategies. However, NPF rates reported in the polluted boundary layer span more than 4 orders of magnitude, and the reasons behind this variability are the subject of intense scientific debate. Multiple atmospheric vapours have been postulated to participate in NPF, including sulfuric acid, ammonia, amines and organics, but their relative roles remain unclear. We investigated NPF in the CLOUD chamber using mixtures of anthropogenic vap…
The AeroCom evaluation and intercomparison of organic aerosol in global models
2014
This paper evaluates the current status of global modeling of the organic aerosol (OA) in the troposphere and analyzes the differences between models as well as between models and observations. Thirty-one global chemistry transport models (CTMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) have participated in this intercomparison, in the framework of AeroCom phase II. The simulation of OA varies greatly between models in terms of the magnitude of primary emissions, secondary OA (SOA) formation, the number of OA species used (2 to 62), the complexity of OA parameterizations (gas-particle partitioning, chemical aging, multiphase chemistry, aerosol microphysics), and the OA physical, chemical and op…
Spectral Structures in Econometrics: Modern Techniques in Wavelet Analysis and Band Limited Estimation
2007
This thesis presents a number of innovative techniques that can be used in the analysis of econometric data sequences in which the underlying components can be identified by their spectral signatures. To present these techniques intelligibly requires the preparatory expositions of Fourier analysis and of the theory of linear filtering that are presented in Chapters 2 and 3. Amongst the techniques for extracting components from short non stationary sequences that are described in Chapter 3 is a variant of the Hodrick--Prescott filter with a smoothing parameter that varies locally. This enables us to extract from the data trends that incorporate a number of structural breaks. The inadequacy o…
Business cycle volatility and country size: evidence for a sample of OECD countries
2008
The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between business cycle volatility and country size using quarterly data for a sample of OECD countries over 1960-2000. The results suggest very strongly that the relationship between country size and business cycle volatility is negative and statistically significant. This finding is very robust, suggesting that country size does matter, at least for the severity of cyclical fluctuations.
Determinantes de la estructura de vencimiento de la deuda en las empresas no cotizadas de los sectores industrial y de la construcción en Colombia de…
2017
Este artículo de reflexión explora, analiza y formula evidencias empíricas en torno a las variables determinantes del plazo del endeudamiento (corto plazo) de las empresas no cotizadas de los sectores industrial y de la construcción en Colombia para el periodo de 2008 a 2014. De acuerdo con el procesamiento de la información contable y financiera anual de las empresas de estos sectores que están reportadas en el Sistema de Información y Reporte Empresarial (Sirem) de la Superintendencia de Sociedades, se construye una base de datos con dos paneles desbalanceados para cada sector. Posteriormente, dicha información es modelada estocásticamente, estimándose las variables para cada sector por m…