Progression-free survival (PFS) as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in advanced/recurrent gastric cancer (AGC) treatment: Individual-patient-data (IPD) based meta-analysis of randomized trials.
e16506 Background: In 2013, the GASTRIC (Global Advanced/Adjuvant Stomach Tumor Research through International Collaboration) evaluated the surrogacy of PFS based on IPD of 4,069 patients from 20 randomized trials of AGC. Treatment effects on PFS and on OS were only moderately correlated, and we could not validate PFS as a surrogate endpoint for OS. More recent trials, with refined inclusion criteria and higher standards for evaluating progression, may allow for a more accurate estimate of the correlation. The 2nd round of the GASTRIC sought to re-evaluate the surrogacy of PFS for OS in AGC. Methods: The GASTRIC database was updated with trials published after 2010 which used RECIST (Respo…
Progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival in advanced/recurrent gastric cancer trials: a meta-analysis.
The traditional endpoint for assessing efficacy of chemotherapies for advanced/recurrent gastric cancer is overall survival (OS), but OS requires prolonged follow-up. We investigated whether progression-free survival (PFS) is a valid surrogate for OS. Using individual patient data from the GASTRIC meta-analysis, surrogacy of PFS was assessed through the correlation between the endpoints and through the correlation between the treatment effects on the endpoints. External validation of the prediction based on PFS was also evaluated. Individual data from 4069 patients in 20 randomized trials were analyzed. The rank correlation coefficient between PFS and OS was 0.853 (95% confidence interval […