0000000000012936
AUTHOR
Dieter M. Urban
Catching-up to foreign technology? Evidence on the “Veblen–Gerschenkron” effect of foreign investments
Abstract The presence of foreign multinational enterprises may benefit local economies. In particular, highly productive foreign-owned firms may promote the technological catch-up of local firms. This channel of spillovers is defined as the “Veblen–Gerschenkron” effect of foreign direct investment and is analyzed in this article. Rather than the overall concentration of foreign-owned plants in a region or sector, it is their productivity advantage that determines the positive effect on domestic firms in geographical and technological proximity. We test this hypothesis using new firm-level data for German and Italian manufacturing firms during the 1990s. These two countries are particularly …
International competitiveness, job creation and job destruction—An establishment-level study of German job flows
Abstract This study investigates the impact of international competitiveness on net employment, job creation, job destruction, and gross job flows for a representative sample of German establishments from 1993 to 2005. We find a statistically significant but economically small effect of real exchange rate shocks on employment, comparable to the one found in studies for the United States. However, contrary to the United States, the employment adjustment (among surviving firms) operates mainly through the job creation rather than the job destruction rate. Job destruction occurs essentially through discrete events such as restructuring, outsourcing and bankruptcy. We suggest that these finding…
Foreign Takeovers and Wages: Theory and Evidence from Hungary
This study discriminates FDI technology spillover from learning effects. Whenever learning takes time, our model predicts that foreign investors deduct the economic value of learning from wages of inexperienced workers and add it to experienced ones to prevent them from moving to local competitors. Hence, the national wage bill is unaffected by foreign takeovers. In contrast to learning, technology spillover effects occur whenever a worker with MNE experience contributes more to local firms' than to MNEs' productivity. In this case, experienced MNE workers are hired by local firms and the host country obtains a welfare gain. We investigate empirically wages, productivity, and worker turnove…
ON THE HETEROGENEOUS EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF OFFSHORING: IDENTIFYING PRODUCTIVITY AND DOWNSIZING CHANNELS
I. INTRODUCTION For the most part of the last two decades Germany suffered from a hangover of the reunification boom, an overvalued exchange rate, high unemployment, and low growth--so The Economist famously named it the "Sick Man of Europe." At the same time, German companies were relocating production, restructuring, and offshoring. The general public associated such offshoring activities--not only in Germany--with plant closures which made the headlines and confirmed the perception that offshoring was a job killer.1 What usually does not make the news is that such downsizing effects of offshoring may be counterbalanced by productivity effects in the restructuring firm. Depending on their…
Offshoring along the production chain
Recent contributions on offshoring often assume that firms can freely split their production process into separate steps which can be ranked according to the cost savings from producing abroad. We replace this assumption by the notion of a technologically determined sequence of production steps. In our model, cost savings from offshoring fluctuate along the production chain, and moving unfinished goods across borders causes transport costs. We show that, in such a setting, firms may refrain from offshoring even if relocating individual steps would be advantageous in terms of offshoring costs, or they may offshore (almost) the entire production chain to save transport costs. Small variations…
For Whom is MAI? A Theoretical Perspective on Multilateral Agreements on Investments
Why do we observe some LDCs objecting the prospect of a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), although they have been keen to liberalize investment in preferential agreements in recent years? In this paper, we analyse the issue of MAI implementation and assess the welfare consequences of such kind of agreements. In our model, participation to MAI involves a trade-off between less rent extraction from multinational firms (MNEs) and more abundant FDI inflows. At equilibrium, either all countries enter MAI, or all countries stay out, or only some of them enter. Coordination problems may induce multiple equilibria: the three typesof equilibria may coexist. So, the implementation of MAI ma…
Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan
Abstract This paper explores theoretically and empirically the medium- and long-run relation of the terms of trade (ratio of traded goods prices) and economic growth of a pair of countries—one of which experiences a major catch-up process towards the other. Two theoretical interdependencies between the terms of trade and economic growth are offered: the home-market effect and the productivity-shock effect. These two effects are tested against each other in a cointegration analysis on data for Japan and the US from 1971 until 1997. Income is cointegrated with the terms of trade. The relevant empirical channel is the home-market effect. However, financial-market effects appear also to be rele…
Vertical FDI Revisited
This study explores how relative skilled-wage premia affect FDI. Contrary to previous studies based on factor endowment differences, we find strong support for vertical FDI, in the sense that more FDI is conducted in countries where unskilled labor is relatively cheap. In addition, we find that relative skill-premia also affect FDI activities that have previously been associated with horizontal FDI, i.e. local affiliate sales. Consequently, the potential effects of changes in the relative wage costs on international production reallocation within MNEs are large. In fact, if not for the 8% rise in the US skilled wage premium relative to the average host country between 1986- 1994, annual US …
Multinational enterprises and wage costs: vertical FDI revisited
Abstract This study explores how wage costs for high-skilled and less-skilled labor in host countries affect the level of affiliate activities conducted by foreign MNEs. We find support for vertical FDI, in the sense that more FDI is conducted in countries where less-skilled labor is relatively cheap. In addition, we find that skilled-wage cost premia also affect FDI activities previously associated with horizontal FDI, i.e. local affiliate sales. Consequently, the potential effects of relative wage costs on MNE activities are large. Rough calculations suggest that more than 20 percent of US affiliate sales in 1998 can be attributed to skilled-wage cost premia.
The Veblen-Gerschenkron Effect of FDI in Mezzogiorno and East Germany
The presence of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) can benefit local economies. In particular, if MNEs are very productive compared to domestic firms, they may promote learning and catch-up of local firms. Such a channel of spillovers from MNEs to local firms is known as the Veblen-Geschenkron effect. Rather than the overall density of MNEs in a region or sector, it is their initial productivity advantage on the local firm to determine the positive effect on domestic productivity growth. We test this hypothesis using firm level data for German and Italian companies during the 90's and we find evidence of a significant and robust Veblen-Gerschenkron effect.
Reconciling the Evidence on the Knowledge-capital Model
The Knowledge Capital Model (KC-model), described in Markusen (2002), encompasses both market size (horizontal) as well as factor endowment (vertical) explanations to why multinational production occurs. Although the KC-model seems intuitively appealing, the empirical support has, so far, been weak and even confused. In this study, we find strong, robust and consistent support for the KC-model. In contrast to previous studies, our skill measures follow directly from the model. We also use an enlarged dataset, where the data coverage is significantly improved. Our results also give estimated surfaces remarkably similar to theoretical simulations of the KC-model. In addition, the results give…
Neoclassical growth, manufacturing agglomeration, and terms of trade
This paper presents an integrated view of economic growth, development traps, and economic geography. We explain why there is income convergence among some countries (neoclassical regime) and income divergence among others (poverty trap regime). Income convergence (divergence) and manufacturing industry diffusion (agglomeration) are re-enforcing each other in a cumulative process. Moreover, trade openness may trigger a catch-up process of an economy that is stuck in a \"poverty trap\". This catch-up is characterized by an increase in the investment-to-GDP ratio and an improvement of the terms of trade. A new dynamic welfare gain of trade liberalization is identified, which is likely to be l…
Heterogeneous Firms, Globalisation and the Distance Puzzle
Despite the strong pace of globalisation, the distance effect on trade is persistent or even growing over time (Disdier and Head, 2008). To solve this distance puzzle, we use the recently developed gravity equation estimator from Helpman et al. (2008) (HMR henceforth). Using three different data sets, we find that the distance coefficient increases over time when ordinary least squares (OLS) is used, while the non-linear estimation of HMR leads to a decline in the distance coefficient over time. The distance puzzle, thus, arises from a growing bias of OLS estimates. The latter is explained by an increase in the importance of the bias from omitting the number of heterogeneous exporting firms…