Does Shariah compliance make interest rate sensitivity of Islamic equities lower? An industry level analysis under different market states
This paper examines the sensitivity of the Dow Jones Islamic market index and its corresponding industry equity indices to changes in the level, slope and curvature of the U.S. term structure of in...
Causal flows between oil and forex markets using high-frequency data: Asymmetries from good and bad volatility
The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link. This paper investigates the causal linkages in volatility between crude oil prices and six major bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar in the time-frequency space using high-frequency intraday data. Special attention is paid to the potential asymmetries in the causal effects between oil and forex markets. The wavelet-based Granger causality method proposed by Olayeni (2016) is applied to quantify the causal relations in the time and frequency domains simultaneously. Moreover, the realized semivariance approach of Barndoff-Nielsen et a…
Oil price shocks, global financial markets and their connectedness
Abstract This paper extends the literature on the relationship between oil price shocks and financial markets by examining the effect of oil shocks on the sovereign bond markets of a large number of advanced and emerging economies and exploring the impact of oil shocks on the degree of connectedness among international financial markets. We show that the effect of oil price shocks is not only limited to stock market returns, but also extends to bond markets, even after controlling for discount rate shocks as well as aggregate capital market effects. Unlike the case for stock markets, the effect on sovereign bonds is found to be rather heterogeneous (in terms of size and sign) and primarily …
Liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk optimization of a multi-asset portfolio using a vine copula approach
Abstract This paper develops a novel approach to assess liquidity-adjusted Value-at-Risk (LVaR) optimization of multi-asset portfolios based on vine copulas and LVaR models. This framework is applied to stock markets of the G-7 countries, gold, commodities and Bitcoin. The results show that our approach is superior to the classical mean–variance Markowitz portfolio technique in terms of the optimal portfolio selection under a number of realistic operational and budget constraints. We find that both Bitcoin and gold improves the risk-return performance of the G-7 stock portfolio. However, Bitcoin (gold) performs better under a scenario of only long-positions (when short-selling is allowed).
Comparative efficiency of green and conventional bonds pre- and during COVID-19: An asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis
Abstract Motivated by the lack of research on price efficiency dynamics of green bonds and the impact of the COVID-19 on the pricing of fixed-income securities, this study investigates the comparative efficiency of green and conventional bond markets pre- and during the COVID-19 pandemic applying asymmetric multifractal analysis. Specifically, the multifractal scaling behaviour is examined separately during upward and downward trends in bond markets using the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) approach. The empirical findings confirm the presence of asymmetric multifractality in the green and traditional bond markets. Not surprisingly, inefficiency in both bon…
Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach
Abstract This paper investigates the presence of asymmetries in the short- and long-run relationships between the 5-year CDS index spreads at the U.S. industry level and a set of major macroeconomic and financial variables, namely the corresponding industry stock indices, the VIX index, the 5-year Treasury bond yield and the crude oil price, using the NARDL approach. The empirical results provide significant evidence of both short-run and long-run asymmetries in the linkage between ten industry CDS spreads and the potential driving factors common for all industries, confirming the importance of asymmetric nonlinearity in this context. It is also shown that the industry equity prices, the VI…
Tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations: New evidence using the quantile-on-quantile approach
This paper examines the empirical validity of the tourism-led growth hypothesis in the top ten tourist destinations in the world (China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Russia, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States) using the quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach and a new index of tourism activity that combines the most commonly used tourism indicators. This methodology, recently introduced by Sim and Zhou (2015), provides an ideal framework with which to capture the overall dependence structure between tourism development and economic growth. The empirical results primarily show a positive relation between tourism and economic growth for the ten countries considered with s…
Time-varying causality between crude oil and stock markets: What can we learn from a multiscale perspective?
This paper investigates the presence of time-varying causal linkages in mean and variance between oil price changes and stock returns for six major oil-importing countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US) in a multiscale framework that combines wavelet analysis and a modified version of the dynamic causality test of Lu, Hong, Wang, Lai, and Liu (2014). The results show significant bidirectional causal relations between oil and stock markets at the different time horizons for all countries. The causal links tend to be stronger at coarser scales and in periods of financial turmoil, mainly during the recent global financial and European sovereign debt crises. This evidence pr…
Industry-level determinants of the linkage between credit and stock markets
ABSTRACTThis paper examines the relationship between US credit default swaps (CDS) and stock returns on an industry-wide basis across a number of investment horizons, with particular focus on the m...
Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between renewable energy stocks and crude oil prices
Abstract This paper examines the time and frequency dynamics of connectedness among stock prices of U.S. clean energy companies, crude oil prices and a number of key financial variables using the methodology developed by Barunik and Krehlik (2018). This approach allows measuring the dynamics of return and volatility connectedness over time and across frequencies simultaneously. The empirical results show that most of return and volatility connectedness is generated in the very short-term, i.e. movements up to five days, while the long-term plays a minor role. Our analysis further reveals a greater degree of interconnectedness across crude oil and financial markets since the onset of the U.S…
Is the tourism–economic growth nexus time-varying? Bootstrap rolling-window causality analysis for the top 10 tourist destinations
This article explores the time-varying causal nexus between tourism development and economic growth for the top 10 tourist destinations in the world, namely China, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, t...
U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach
This paper explores the long‐run relationship and the associated short‐run dynamics between the U.S. stock market and three major macroeconomic fundamentals, namely the U.S. industrial production index, the U.S. 10‐year Treasury bond yield and the West Texas Intermediate oil price, for the time period covering 1985–2015. The quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model presented by Cho et al. (2015) Journal of Econometrics, 188, 281–300, which combines the autoregressive distributed lag model of Pesaran and Shin (1998), Cambridge University Press, and Pesaran et al. (2001) Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289–326, and the quantile regression methodology of Koenker and Bassett (…
Are green bonds a different asset class? Evidence from time-frequency connectedness analysis
Abstract This paper investigates the time-frequency connectedness across the global green bond market and several mainstream financial and energy markets in an attempt to figure out whether green bonds represent a different asset class. The connectedness methodology proposed by Barunik and Křehlik (2018) is employed for that purpose. This approach enables quantifying the dynamics of connectedness in terms of return and volatility over time and across time scales simultaneously. The empirical results indicate that connectedness between the global green bond market and the conventional financial and energy markets mainly occurs at shorter time horizons, suggesting that shocks are rapidly tran…
Risk transmission between Islamic and conventional stock markets: A return and volatility spillover analysis
Abstract This paper contributes to the current debate on the empirical validity of the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from its mainstream counterparts by examining return and volatility spillovers across the global Islamic stock market, three main conventional national stock markets (the US, the UK and Japan) and a number of influential macroeconomic and financial variables over the period from July 1996 to June 2016. To that end, the VAR-based spillover index approach based on the generalized VAR framework developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) is applied. The empirical analysis shows strong interactions in return and volatility among the global Islamic stock market, the…