0000000000034713
AUTHOR
Nolberto Munier
showing 6 related works from this author
Brief Introduction to Probability Distributions
2014
There is a great deal of uncertainty in any project. That is, data is seldom absolutely reliable and exact, since there is never certainty about duration of tasks, price variations, effect on the environment, etc., to say nothing about those aspects which are external to the project and for which the project developer has no control, such as weather conditions, demand, stock fluctuations, inflation, supplier’s delays, etc. It is believed that many projects are not completed in time and finish with cost overrun, because in their preparation, data is taken as unquestionable, and then actual conditions show that it is not precisely the case. For this reason the uncertainty aspect has to be con…
Principles and Elements of Risk Management – Data and Initial Conditions
2014
This chapter is devoted to furnishing background information on Risk Management, explaining the string of steps that comprise it, and the use of techniques within it, as well as their relationships. The chapter follows the widely accepted sequence for risk identification, assessment, execution, remediation and control; it starts with some basic definitions and, in its first topic, analyzes the sources for risks, considering internal and external risks and opportunities. It follows with a guide for identifying and managing risks in different areas of a project and suggests appropriate tools and techniques for each one. Completion of sequence sensitivity analysis, a subject developed in full …
Project During Execution – Strategy – Updating
2014
This chapter fundamentally examines project performance during its execution period, however, risk must always be considered, especially at the very beginning of the project when the risk is normally maximum, and at each update. In the Project Monitoring stage, this chapter explores what happens with foreseen risks, that is, if they really happened or not and their consequences. In the Project Control stage, the chapter uses Earned Value Analysis and examines Performance Factors, which are used to predict completion regarding time and cost. However, because these calculations are based on past performance, there is always the risk that this performance will not be replicated in the future, …
Closing and Reporting
2014
It often happens that closing and reporting do not deserve particular attention from the contractor or consultant Project Manager, however, they are important. This chapter analyzes diverse situations that imply risk specifically related to an owner being dissatisfied owing to a deficiency of documentation in quantity and quality handed over, or perhaps due to a lack of quality in finishing concrete work, or through failure to clean the site. The chapter analyzes these aspects, pointing out that closing-out a project is a process as important as the rest of the processes in the project’s life cycle, and examines the need to produce a good Technical Memory that must incorporate a string of i…
Risk Assessment and Analysis
2014
Once threats are identified, they must be assessed or evaluated, which is the objective of this chapter. There is usually a large number of threats, making it impossible or unprofitable to analyze them all, meaning selection of the threats that will be addressed is important. It is a decision-making process; an example is proposed and solved by one of the many techniques available. The chapter proposes a very standard requested study, which is the assessment of the economic and financial risks of a project. This is done through a real-life-example, followed by another appraisal, this time devoted to economic issues, as well as another for transportation, introducing the important concept of…
Probabilities in Risk Management
2014
A project is generally a complex undertaking in which most things are uncertain (durations, costs, project and suppliers performance, weather, soil geology, public reaction, etc.), and thus, risk permeates everything. Risk is closely related to uncertainty, and the latter with probabilities and distributions the conceptual aspects of which are explained in Chap. 9. It is inconceivable to address risk without considering probabilities of occurrence, and the measures that must be taken to prevent or mitigate risk; in that sense, the ‘buffer’ concept is introduced. In Chap. 2, a comparison was mentioned between CPM, PERT and MC; now, Chap. 3 proposes a case for numerically demonstrating the ad…