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RESEARCH PRODUCT

Project During Execution – Strategy – Updating

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This chapter fundamentally examines project performance during its execution period, however, risk must always be considered, especially at the very beginning of the project when the risk is normally maximum, and at each update. In the Project Monitoring stage, this chapter explores what happens with foreseen risks, that is, if they really happened or not and their consequences. In the Project Control stage, the chapter uses Earned Value Analysis and examines Performance Factors, which are used to predict completion regarding time and cost. However, because these calculations are based on past performance, there is always the risk that this performance will not be replicated in the future, and consequently, there is uncertainty about the completion time and cost. Risk Management can help in forecasting distribution of values by limiting this uncertainty, considering that it will probably follow a normal distribution probability curve and determine durations and cost values with a 95 % confidence, that is, assuming only a 5 % risk or whatever other value that stakeholders are willing to accept.