Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to A.D. 600 based on a wood density network

Annually resolved and millennium-long reconstructions of large-scale temperature variability are primarily composed of tree ring width (TRW) chronologies. Changes in ring width, however, have recently been shown to bias the ratio between low- and high-frequency signals. To overcome limitations in capturing the full spectrum of past temperature variability, we present a network of 15 maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies distributed across the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Independent subsets of continental-scale records consistently reveal high MXD before 1580 and after 1910, with below average values between these periods. Reconstructed extratropical summer temperatures reflect n…

Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years

Significance The variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) is important for the functioning of ecological and societal systems at regional to continental scales, but the long-term evolution and interannual variability of this system is not well understood. Here, we present a stable isotope–based reconstruction of ASM variability covering 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a gradual drying trend, a rapid drop in mean annual precipitation (>40%) toward persistently drier conditions occurred in ∼1675 BCE. This megadrought caused regional forest deterioration and enhanced aeolian activity affecting Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE triggered wa…

Signals and memory in tree-ring width and density data

It has been suggested that maximum latewood density (MXD) should be used instead of tree-ring width (TRW) data to reconstruct post-volcanic cooling effects. A thorough assessment of high frequency signals and potentially differing memory effects in long MXD and TRW chronologies, in response to large volcanic eruptions, is still missing, however. We here present a compilation of MXD and TRW chronologies from 11 sites in the Northern Hemisphere, covering the past 750+ years, and containing significant June–August temperature signals. Basic assessment of the data using Superposed Epoch Analysis reveals a temporally extended response in TRW, by 2–3 years, to large volcanic eruptions, though pos…

Detection and evaluation of an early divergence problem in northern Fennoscandian tree-ring data

Although not yet fully understood, reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature at high northern latitudes during the last ˜ 40 years is often linked to concurrent anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and global warming. The idea that a temporal localization of the problem could improve its understanding initiated a search for erratic growth-patterns in earlier periods of high quality dendrochronological archives. An extensive network of maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements from northern Fennoscandia likely represents one of the most reliable regional summer-temperature reconstructions. The strong coherence between proxy and instrumental data is, however, interrupted…

Tree-Ring Amplification of the Early Nineteenth-Century Summer Cooling in Central Europe

Abstract Annually resolved and absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies are the most important proxy archives to reconstruct climate variability over centuries to millennia. However, the suitability of tree-ring chronologies to reflect the “true” spectral properties of past changes in temperature and hydroclimate has recently been debated. At issue is the accurate quantification of temperature differences between early nineteenth-century cooling and recent warming. In this regard, central Europe (CEU) offers the unique opportunity to compare evidence from instrumental measurements, paleomodel simulations, and proxy reconstructions covering both the exceptionally hot summer of 2003 and the ye…

On the hidden significance of differing micro-sites on tree-ring based climate reconstructions

Tree-ring chronologies are commonly extended back in time by combining samples from living trees with relict material preserved in man-made structures or natural archives (e.g. lakes). Although spatially close, these natural archives and living-tree-sites often comprise different micro-climates. Inhomogeneous growth conditions among these habitats, which may yield offsets in growth-rates, require caution in data processing. Here we assess species-specific growth dynamics in two micro-habitats and their potential effects on long chronologies by combining tree-ring data from different living-tree-sites with an “artificial” subfossil dataset. Well replicated (n > 80) Norway spruce (…

The temperature sensitivity along elevational gradients is more stable in maximum latewood density than tree-ring width

Ecological and climatological signals in tree-ring width and density chronologies along a latitudinal boreal transect

ABSTRACTShifts in the climate sensitivity of trees throughout the twentieth century might indicate climate change effects in the boreal forest ecosystem. We here evaluated such potential changes by analyzing six tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies from northern, central and southern boreal forests in Finland (60°N–69°N). Besides latitudinal effects, differing micro-sites (lakeshore and inland) were considered to evaluate the influence of ground water access on twentieth-century tree-ring formation and climate sensitivity. Overall, the boreal MXD chronologies appeared less affected by micro-site conditions compared to the TRW chronologies. Along the boreal t…

Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context

Текст статьи не публикуется в открытом доступе в соответствии с политикой журнала. Large-scale millennial length Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstructions have been progressively improved over the last 20 years as new datasets have been developed. This paper, and its companion (Part II, Anchukaitis et al. in prep), details the latest tree-ring (TR) based NH land air temperature reconstruction from a temporal and spatial perspective. This work is the first product of a consortium called N-TREND (Northern Hemisphere Tree-Ring Network Development) which brings together dendroclimatologists to identify a collective strategy for improving large-scale summer temperature reconstructions…

Large-scale, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings

Supported by the German Science Foundation, grants # Inst 247/665-1 FUGG and ES 161/9-1. SSG acknowledges support by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, KJA by US National Science Foundation grants AGS-1501856 and NSF AGS-1501834, and JL and LS by the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action INTEGRATE. Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically d…

Temperature Covariance in Tree Ring Reconstructions and Model Simulations Over the Past Millennium

Spatial covariance in the simulated temperature evolution over the past millennium has been reported to exceed that of multiproxy-based reconstructions. Here we use tree ring-based temperature reco ...

DETECTING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS BY DESIGNED BREAK-INDICATOR SATURATION

We present a methodology for detecting breaks at any point in time-series regression models using an indicator saturation approach, applied here to modelling climate change. Building on recent developments in econometric model selection for more variables than observations, we saturate a regression model with a full set of designed break functions. By selecting over these break functions using an extended general-to-specific algorithm, we obtain unbiased estimates of the break date and magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the approximate properties of the approach. We assess the methodology by detecting volcanic eruptions in a time series of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature spanni…

Corrigendum: A new archive of large volcanic events over the past millennium derived from reconstructed summer temperatures (2017 Environ. Res. Lett. 12 094005)

Reduced Temperature Sensitivity of Maximum Latewood Density Formation in High-Elevation Corsican Pines under Recent Warming

Maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements from long-lived Black pines (Pinus nigra spp. laricio) growing at the upper treeline in Corsica are one of the few archives to reconstruct southern European summer temperatures at annual resolution back into medieval times. Here, we present a compilation of five MXD chronologies from Corsican pines that contain high-to-low frequency variability between 1168 and 2016 CE and correlate significantly (p &lt

Moroccan speleothem and tree ring records suggest a variable positive state of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the Medieval Warm Period

We present a magnesium (Mg) and strontium (Sr) record from an aragonitic speleothem (Grotte de Piste, Morocco, 34‬°N; 04°W) providing a reconstruction of effective rainfall from 619 to 1962 AD. The corresponding drip site was monitored over 2 yr for drip water Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca ratios. Results show evidence for prior aragonite precipitation, which can explain negative correlations between speleothem Mg and Sr concentrations. The data shown here have important climate implications concerning the evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A comparison of the stalagmite data from Grotte de Piste with an updated tree ring based drought reconstruction from Morocco and other NAO related pro…