Forecasting Changes in Religiosity and Existential Security with an Agent-Based Model

2018

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) and…

InCREDulity in Artificial Societies

2021

This paper describes an artificial society in which the simulated agents behave and interact based on a computational architecture informed by insights from one of the leading social psychological theories in the scientific study of secularization and religion: “credibility-enhancing displays” (or CREDs) theory. After introducing the key elements of the theory and outlining the computational architecture of our CRED model, we present some of our initial simulation results. These efforts are intended to advance the quest within social simulation for more authentic artificial societies and more plausible human-like agents with complex interactive and interpretative capacities.

Post-Supernatural Cultures: There and Back Again

2020

The abandonment of supernatural religious beliefs and rituals seems to occur quite easily in some contexts, but post-supernaturalist cultures require a specific set of conditions that are difficult to produce and sustain on a large scale and thus are historically rare. Despite the worldwide resurgence of supernaturalist religion, some subcultures reliably produce people who deny the existence of supernatural entities. This social phenomenon has evoked competing explanations, many of which enjoy empirical support. We synthesize six of the most influential social-science explanations, demonstrating that they provide complementary perspectives on a complex causal architecture. We incorporate t…

What do religion scholars really want? Scholarly values in the scientific study of religion

2020

Paid Open Access UNIT agreement

Minority Integration in a Western City: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

2019

This chapter describes the design and construction of an agent-based model we refer to as the ‘Simulation of Extended Time Integration’ (SETI) model. This model was designed with the goal of obtaining a better understanding of the conditions and mechanisms leading to the structural, social, and cultural integration of minorities into large Western societies. SETI is a virtual society with structural (employment, income, education) and demographic (marriage, reproduction, life expectancy) variables typical of Westerns countries. Initialization occurs after a hypothesized immigration event in which a single minority population settles into the majority population, bracketing the first decade …

Religious Exiting and Social Networks: Computer Simulations of Religious/Secular Pluralism

2021

Statistical models attempting to predict who will disaffiliate from religions have typically accounted for less than 15% of the variation in religious affiliations, suggesting that we have only a partial understanding of this vital social process. Using agent-based simulations in three “artificial societies” (one predominantly religious; one predominantly secular; and one in between), we demonstrate that worldview pluralism within one’s neighborhood and family social networks can be a significant predictor of religious (dis)affiliation but in pluralistic societies worldview diversity is less important and, instead, people move toward worldview neutrality. Our results suggest that there may …

Computational Demography of Religion: A Proposal

2021

This paper proposes a new approach to the demography of religion and non-religion that builds on and expands agent-based modeling and social simulation techniques developed in prior work by the research teams led by the authors. Traditional demographic approaches to religion and non-religion understandably focus attention on self-reports of religious identity or affiliation, where longitudinal data is most readily available, and they employ a cohort-component methodology to make projections. We argue that demographic projections of religion and non-religion could be enhanced by using multi-agent artificial intelligence models of societies. After artificial societies with suitably cognitivel…

Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study

2022

Social scientists generally take United Nations (UN) population projections as the baseline when considering the potential impact of any changes that could affect fertility, mortality or migration, and the UN typically does projections using the cohort-component method (CCM). The CCM technique is computationally simple and familiar to demographers. However, in order to avoid the exponential expansion of complexity as new dimensions of individual difference are added to projections, and to understand the sensitivity of projections to specific conditions, agent-based microsimulations are a better option. CCMs can mask hidden assumptions that are surfaced by the construction of microsimulatio…

Human Simulation and Sustainability : Ontological, Epistemological, and Ethical Reflections

2020

This article begins with a brief outline of recent advances in the application of computer modeling to sustainability research, identifying important gaps in coverage and associated limits in methodological capability, particularly in regard to taking account of the tangled human factors that are often impediments to a sustainable future. It then describes some of the ways in which a new transdisciplinary approach within &ldquo

EMERGENCE: WHAT DOES IT MEAN AND HOW IS IT RELEVANT TO COMPUTER ENGINEERING?

2018

Artificial Social Ethics: Simulating Culture, Conflict, and Cooperation

2020

In recent years advances in computational modeling and social simulation technologies have enabled scientists to identify some of the conditions under which – and the mechanisms by which – conflict and cooperation within and across human cultures are likely to emerge. There are significant ethical concerns surrounding the increased capacity and growing use of such computer tools to guide public policy discussions. The purpose of this paper is to propose and promote an "artificial social ethics" approach to addressing these concerns and illustrate its application in relation to three agent-based models implemented within the Artificial Society Analytics Platform. We conclude with a brief dis…

Ethics, Computer Simulation, and the Future of Humanity

2019

This chapter explores some of the key ethical issues impacting the field of computer modeling and simulation (MS this framework is not a set of ethical guidelines, but a toolkit for guiding ethical decision-making in this interdisciplinary endeavor. In the fourth section, we ask: even if we can model the origin and destiny of humanity, does that mean we should? Finally, in the conclusion we issue an ethical challenge to M&S professionals.

Human Simulation: A Transdisciplinary Approach to Studying Societal Problems

2019

In this chapter, we present a transdisciplinary framework where humanities scholars, social scientists, and engineers can work together to tackle large and complex societal problems. We identify the steps required to construct a human simulation model and the concerns and issues that must be addressed to ensure success. We also present some basic definitions and assumptions inherent to developing this sort of model.

Modelling terror management theory: computer simulations of the impact of mortality salience on religiosity

2017

ABSTRACTThis article outlines the development – and reports on the experimental findings – of two computational models designed to simulate the dynamic systems and behavioural patterns identified and clarified by research on terror management theory. The causal architectures of these models are informed by empirical research on the effects of mortality salience on “religiosity” (and vice versa). They are also informed by research on the way in which perception of personal and environmental hazards activate evolved cognitive and coalitional precautionary systems that can intensify anxiety-alleviating behaviours such as imaginative engagement with supernatural agents postulated within a relig…

A Generative Model of the Mutual Escalation of Anxiety Between Religious Groups

2018

We propose a generative agent-based model of the emergence and escalation of xenophobic anxiety in which individuals from two different religious groups encounter various hazards within an artificial society. The architecture of the model is informed by several empirically validated theories about the role of religion in intergroup conflict. Our results identify some of the conditions and mechanisms that engender the intensification of anxiety within and between religious groups. We define mutually escalating xenophobic anxiety as the increase of the average level of anxiety of the agents in both groups over time. Trace validation techniques show that the most common conditions under which …

Why do the godless prosper? Modeling the cognitive and coalitional mechanisms that promote atheism.

2018

Minding morality : ethical artificial societies for public policy modeling

2020

AbstractPublic policies are designed to have an impact on particular societies, yet policy-oriented computer models and simulations often focus more on articulating the policies to be applied than on realistically rendering the cultural dynamics of the target society. This approach can lead to policy assessments that ignore crucial social contextual factors. For example, by leaving out distinctive moral and normative dimensions of cultural contexts in artificial societies, estimations of downstream policy effectiveness fail to account for dynamics that are fundamental in human life and central to many public policy challenges. In this paper, we supply evidence that incorporating morally sal…

The Artificial Society Analytics Platform

2020

Author's accepted manuscript Social simulation routinely involves the construction of artificial societies and agents within such societies. Currently there is insufficient discussion of best practices regarding the construction process. This chapter introduces the artificial society analytics platform (ASAP) as a way to spark discussion of best practices. ASAP is designed to be an extensible architecture capable of functioning as the core of many different types of inquiries into social dynamics. Here we describe ASAP, focusing on design decisions in several key areas, thereby exposing our assumptions and reasoning to critical scrutiny, hoping for discussion that can advance debate over be…

sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 – Supplemental Material for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study

2022

Supplemental Material, sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study by Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, Rachel J. Bacon, David Voas, F. LeRon Shults, George Hodulik and Wesley J. Wildman in Social Science Computer Review

sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 – Supplemental Material for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study

2022

Supplemental Material, sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study by Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, Rachel J. Bacon, David Voas, F. LeRon Shults, George Hodulik and Wesley J. Wildman in Social Science Computer Review