Expected future changes in the African monsoon between 2030 and 2070 using some CMIP3 and CMIP5 models under a medium-low RCP scenario

[1] The accuracy of African Monsoon (AM) simulations together with expected future changes are presented using eight available CMIP5/AR5 AOGCMs under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and eight CMIP3/AR4 AOGCMs under the A1b scenario, with a multimodel approach and the “one model one vote” concept. The results refer to the ‘present’ period (1960–1999) and to a ‘future horizon’ (2031–2070), and are discussed in terms of monsoon dynamics and climate change. Overall the new simulations seem more realistic. They exhibit more accurate rainfall patterns, although some biases reported in CMIP3 models remain. The future changes show an inverse tendency regarding rainfall amounts with less (more) rainfal…

Global equatorial variability of 850 and 200 hPa zonal winds from rawinsondes between 1963 and 1989

The longitude-height-time variability of 3-month averaged zonal wind anomalies at 850 and 200 hPa over the equatorial area (5{degrees}N-5{degrees}S) is analyzed using a three-dimensional dataset constructed from rawinsonde data (1963-1989). The first mode, closely related to the Southern Oscillation Index, suggests a strong vertical coupling associated with a horizontal out-of-phase pattern between the central/western Pacific and the remainder of the equatorial belt. The vertical coupling appears to be phase-locked to the annual cycle with strongest intensities found over South America and near the maritime continent early in the calendar year and over the Pacific basin and Africa during th…

Sea-surface temperature co-variability in the Southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans and its connections with the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere

The relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) inter-annual variability at the subtropical and midlatitudes of the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans and its links with the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere are investigated over the 1950–1999 period. Exploratory analysis using singular value decomposition and further investigations based on simple indices show that a large part of regional SST variability is common between the southwestern parts of both basins at subtropical and midlatitudes during the austral summer. Interestingly, these areas are also significantly associated with the far southwestern Pacific (Tasman Sea area). The patterns and time series of co-…

Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario.

This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5°W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58° in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24°) is observed. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Definition and predictability of an OLR based West African monsoon onset

The monsoon onset is documented in terms of latitudinal shift of deep convection areas within the ITCZ using an interpolated version of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) at a 5-day time-step over West Africa for the period 1979–2004. Signals in moist convection derived from OLR values lower than 180 W/m2 allow better determination of onset dates (ODs) than the use of other thresholds or of the raw values of OLR. Such ODs are defined without any time filtering or spatial averaging along the meridional plane. They are also significantly correlated with ODs based on other datasets such as the CMAP and Global Precipitation Climatology P…

How using large scale rainfall datasets over West Africa ?

Classification of intense rainfall days in southern West Africa and associated atmospheric circulation.

Daily rainfall in southern West Africa (4&ndash

Cambios en la frecuencia de los Regímenes de Tiempo sobre la región Euro-Atlántica y Mediterránea y su relación con las temperaturas anómalas sobre el Mar Mediterráneo

An exercise has been carried out to assess to what extent the Euro-Atlantic Weather Regimes (WR), described from the ERA-interim Reanalysis in the summer season, projects onto a pool of AGCMAMIP simulations in which sea surface temperatures (SST) are prescribed from observations. Although the model simulations present some biases in the spatial structure and seasonality of WRs, exhibiting also less variability, they are able to capture main WR over the region in summer season: +Middle East –Middle East, +NAO, -NAO. WR paradigm is used to quantify changes in the atmosphere under warmer/colder than normal conditions over the Mediterranean Sea. To address this problem, firstly, changes in the …

Recent changes in precipitation, ITCZ convection and northern tropical circulation over North Africa (1979-2007)

This article focuses on some recent changes observed in the Tropics with special emphasis on the African monsoon region using high-resolution gridded precipitation from the Climatic Research Unit (period 1979–2002), outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and atmospheric reanalyses from the Climate Prediction Center (NCEP-DOE2, period 1979–2007). The results show a rainfall increase in North Africa since the mid-90s with significant northward migrations of rainfall amounts, i.e. + 1.5° for the 400 mm July to September isohyets, whereas deep convection has significantly increased and shifted northward. The subsidence b…

Rainfall variability in subequatorial America and Africa and relationships with the main sea-surface temperature modes (1951–1990)

The rainfall variability of subequatorial South America and Africa is poorly documented owing to the scarcity of data. We present a new land-only data set of monthly precipitation from 1951 to 1990, focusing on subequatorial South America and Africa, which improves the knowledge of rainfall variability and allows comparisons with GCM outputs. The results of multivariate analyses are compared with those performed on the best actual global rainfall data set developed by Mike Hulme. The main modes of bimonthly rainfall variability are not located in the major rain-forest basins of Za'ke and Amazonia, but rather on the tropical margins, such as Venezuela or Sudan, and near-coastal equatorial ar…

Les changements futurs de la mousson africaine.

7 pages; International audience; Nous analysons l’effet du changement climatique sur la mousson d’Afrique de l’ouest par l’utilisation de huitmodèles CMIP5 sous scénario RCP4.5, la réalisation d’un multi-modèle et l’approche « one model, one vote ». Les résultatsmontrent l’apparition d’un contraste pluviométrique zonal entre le centre et l’ouest du Sahel. Une mousson plus intensepermettrait une hausse de la convergence d’humidité et des précipitations au centre du Sahel. Un renforcement du jet d’estafricain et de la subsidence sur l’ouest du Sahel y permettrait en revanche une baisse de la pluviométrie.

Impacts of the Mediterranean basins on the West African monsoon: observed connection patterns (1979

International audience

Désagrégation dynamique haute résolution spatiale du climat du Centre Est de la France par le modèle climatique régional ARW/WRF

Ce travail analyse les capacités du modèle climatique régional ARW/WRF à reproduire les principaux traits du climat (températures de surface et précipitations) du Centre Est de la France à des résolutions spatiales fines, et pour les années 1991 et 2003. La simulation utilise pour la désagrégation du signal une descente d'échelle basée sur trois domaines emboîtés de maille variable de 120 km, 30 km et 7,5 km. Les conditions latérales sont imposées toutes les 6 heures par les ré- analyses ERA-Interim. Les températures et les précipitations observées par le réseau de mesures de Météo-France Bourgogne sont utilisées pour l'évaluation. Les simulations reproduisent bien la température (R²~0,95 e…

Régionaliser le climat pour en évaluer les impacts : l'apport des modèles numériques

National audience; La simulation de l'évolution future du climat repose sur l'utilisation de modèles numériques complexes. Ces modèles doivent prendre en compte les diverses composantes du système climatique (atmosphère, biosphère, cryosphère et lithosphère) et leurs temps de réponse respectifs pour simuler les réactions de ce système à différents scénarios de perturbations d'origine naturelle (activités solaire et volcanique...) ou humaine (émissions de gaz à effet de serre et d'aérosols). Afin d'étudier l'impact du climat sur une région donnée, il faut disposer d'une résolution spatiale suffisamment fine (quelques kilomètres) dont ne disposent pas les modèles de circulation générale plané…

Mid-century effects of Climate Change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario

Future climate changes in African regions are model-dependent and there is no consensus regarding Sahelian rainfall by the end of this century. Using 12 atmosphere-ocean global climate models of the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) we propose a multi-model (MM) analysis contrasting the 1960–1999 period (20c3m integration) and the 2031–2070 period (A1B emission scenario). The analyses are based on MM response but also on the ‘one model-one vote’ concept to give the same weight to each model. The results show robust signals in the rainfall response, i.e., increasing (decreasing) amounts in central (western) Sahel associated with specific changes in atmospheric dynamics. The…

Définition d’un événement de poussières désertiques au Sahel : apport de nouvelles mesures de PM10 au Burkina Faso.

This study isdedicated to the desert dust of the dry season in an inhabited Sahelian rural area whose populations are widely exposed tosanitary risks such as meningitis outbreaks (Martiny & Chiapello, 2013). Here, the objective is to give a definition of a dust“event”, a concept describing the dustiest moments in a dusty environment, but that remains rather unclear, notably becauseof the lack of ground-truth measurements. The analysis of new PM10 measurements in Burkina Faso has enabled us to definethe dust events as episodes which experience concentrations greater than 189μg/m3 for at least 10h. Five types of dust eventshave been defined depending on the concentrations measured. On the fir…

Identification of processes that control the stable isotope composition of rainwater in the humid tropical West-Central Africa.

12 pages; International audience; This study interprets 11 years (2006 to 2016) and 6 months (March to August in 2017) of respectively monthly and daily isotopic (δD and δ18O) monitoring of rain at Douala (Cameroon), a humid tropical station in Western Africa. The main scope is to analyze the climate controls on precipitation isotopes at different timescales. Firstly, we examine the annual cycles of δ18O. Over the 11 years of survey, the annual cycle exhibits a W shape that is quite reproducible from year to year, with two minima in spring and autumn periods. Based on back trajectory calculations and remote sensing observations of water vapor isotopic composition, we show that the observed …

La rupture climatique de 1987 en France : quels effets sur l’humidité des sols ?

Cet article présente les caractéristiques spatio-temporelles de l’humidité des sols à l’échelle de la France entre deux sous-périodes (1959-1987 et 1988-2019). Les principaux résultats montrent un assèchement généralisé des sols, surtout au printemps et en été, notamment pour trois secteurs : le sud-ouest, le nord-est et le pourtour méditerranéen. L’assèchement des sols peut s’expliquer par un important réchauffement des températures, généralisé et significatif à l’échelle de l’ensemble du territoire, mais bien plus marqué dans le sud-ouest et le nord-est, au printemps et en été. Cette élévation importante des températures entre les deux sous-périodes semble expliquer une très forte hausse …

Decadal time scale variability recorded in the Quelccaya summit ice core δ 18 O isotopic ratio series and its relation with the sea surface temperature

The spectral characteristics of the delta /sup 18/O isotopic ratio time series of the Quelccaya ice cap summit core are investigated with the multi taper method (MTM), the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the wavelet transform (WT) techniques for the 500 y long 1485-1984 period. The most significant (at the 99.8% level) cycle according to the MTM F-test has a period centered at 14.4 y while the largest variance explaining oscillation according to the SSA technique has a period centered at 12.9 y. The stability over time of these periods is investigated by performing evolutive MTM and SSA on the 500 y long delta /sup 18/O series with a 100 y wide moving window. It is shown that the cycle…

Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change

Summary This paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment in West Africa. Flow simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. A period of nearly 50 years (1952–2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. Calibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. The climate models HadCM3 and MPI-M under SRES-A2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. Outputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to:…

Detecting the West African monsoon onset

International audience

Modèles de climats régionaux : potentiels et limites.

6 pages; International audience; L'utilisation de Modèles de Climat Régionaux (MCR) se développe, ces derniers offrant des potentialités et des limites que nous analysons. Les travaux réalisés au CRC montrent néanmoins que selon la durée des simulations (de l'événement météorologique à l'étude du changement climatique), la fenêtre géographique (des tropiques aux régions tempérées), la résolution spatiale (de quelques dizaines de km à quelques centaines de m) et les variables étudiées (température, précipitation, convection atmosphérique, ...), les conditions d'utilisation varient beaucoup. L'utilisation des MCR requiert ainsi une expertise relativement lourde à acquérir, nécessitant à la fo…

West African Monsoon water cycle: 1. A hybrid water budget data set

International audience; This study investigates the West African Monsoon water cycle with the help of a new hybrid water budget data set developed within the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses. Surface water and energy fluxes are estimated from an ensemble of land surface model simulations forced with elaborate precipitation and radiation products derived from satellite observations, while precipitable water tendencies are estimated from numerical weather prediction analyses. Vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux convergence is estimated as a residual. This approach provides an advanced, comprehensive atmospheric water budget, including evapotranspiration,…

Predicting dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana using climate indicators

Background Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Methodology/Principal Findings Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical e…

On the projected increase of Sahel rainfall during the late rainy season

Thirteen CMIP5 models are used to analyse changes in climate over the West African monsoon region between the near future (2031–2070 under the RCP4.5 emission scenario), and a control period (1960–1999 under the historical emission scenario), with a focus on the late rainy season. The monsoon circulation is projected to strengthen and to shift northward leading to more rainfall during the Sahelian season. The results show an increase of the Rainfall amounts in September–October and a delay in the monsoon withdrawal. The increased moisture that fuels the rainfall anomalies is associated with an increase in moisture flux convergence and with local moisture recycling. The moisture transport do…

Temporal evolution of heavy rainfall in the southern West Africa coastline belt.

The Southern Coastalbelt of West Africa (SCWA) is exposed to recurrent flooding. The two objectives of the study are to show thespecificity of SCWA to heavy rainfall occurrence and to determine the trends of the latter. Daily rainfall data of41 stations in the southern parts of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin for the period 1951–2015 and ClimateHazards Group InfraRed Precipitation data were used. The approach is based on the determination (for eachstation and grid point) of the 95th centile (P95) of precipitations greater than or equal to 1 mm. Results indicatethat rainfall is heavier on the coastal belt than inland (average P95 is 65,4 and 45,5 m/day for coastal and inlandstations res…

Spring to summer changes in the West African monsoon through NCEP/NCAR reanalyses (1968–1998)

[1] This article focuses on the spring to summer evolutions of the West African monsoon from an energetic point of view; it uses NCEP/NCAR reanalyses along with observed and simulated rainfall data over the period 1968–1998. The results show that the West African monsoon can be viewed as a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system phased with the zenithal evolution of solar radiation which maintains its thermally direct circulation by pumping, from the surface, enthalpy mainly in spring and latent energy in summer. In this context the horizontal energy gradients in the boundary layer play a key role during the spring to summer transition. At the beginning of spring, the moist static energy (MSE)…

Weather Regimes in the Euro-Atlantic and Mediterranean Sector, and Relationship with West African Rainfall over the 1989–2008 Period from a Self-Organizing Maps Approach

Abstract Weather regimes (WRs) have been defined over the Euro-Mediterranean region (15°–70°N, 60°W–60°E) from May to October using the daily sea level pressure, 700-hPa geopotential height, and specific humidity from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA)-Interim over the 1989–2008 period. Computations are based on a neural network classification technique referred to as self-organizing maps, and the WRs produced can be used by the scientific community for comparison with other periods, projection onto model outputs, seasonal prediction, or teleconnection studies. The article particularly examines the relationship between WRs and West Africa (WA) rainfall,…

VERTICAL MOTION CHANGES RELATED TO NORTH-EAST BRAZIL RAINFALL VARIABILITY: A GCM SIMULATION

The atmospheric structure over north-east Brazil during anomalous rainfall years is studied in the 11 levels of the outputs of the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique atmospheric general circulation model (LMD AGCM). Seven 19-year simulations were performed using observed sea-surface temperature (SST) corresponding to the period 1970– 1988. The ensemble mean is calculated for each month of the period, leading to an ensemble-averaged simulation. The simulated March-April rainfall is in good agreement with observations. Correlations of simulated rainfall and three SST indices relative to the equatorial Pacific and northern and southern parts of the Atlantic Ocean exhibit stronger relationsh…

Monsoon onset over Sudan-Sahel: Simulation by the regional scale model MM5.

[1] The Mesoscale Model MM5 is used to study the regional features of the West African Monsoon onset. In order to increase the results, simulations are carried out for eight consecutive seasons (March to September) of the years 1994 to 2001. The results show that the model can reproduce the dynamical features of the monsoon in a reasonably good manner but the seasonal cycle seems enhanced. It is hypothesized that overestimated rainfall amounts could be related to a poor representation of the land surface characteristics. Nevertheless, the mean simulated monsoon onset dates are similar to those find in the CMAP data set. The onset is characterized by an apparent increase in zonal flow that c…

Confrontation of atmospheric water budgets from NWP model (re-)analyses and observational datasets during AMMA-EOP

International audience

Time evolution of observed July–September sea surface temperature-Sahel climate teleconnection with removed quasi-global effect (1900–2008)

[1] Using sea surface temperature (SST), precipitation, and atmospheric information, this statistical study revisits the questions of the July–September SST-Sahel teleconnection variability after removing impact of quasi-global SSTs over the period 1900–2008. The eastern Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean dominate the relationship, both in terms of intensity and time stability, with significant values in 52% and 47% of years, respectively. More than two thirds of the rainy seasons classified as dry (wet) and 16 out of 18 (12 out of 15) of those classified as very dry (very wet) are concomitant of negative (positive) differences between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. Correlations wi…

Influence of the Mediterranean Sea on the West African monsoon: Intraseasonal variability in numerical simulations

[1] The influence of May to September sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea on the West African monsoon is investigated, analyzing the outputs of numerical sensitivity experiments performed using three atmospheric general circulation models (Action de Recherche Petite Echelle Grande Echelle, European/Hamburg, and University of California, Los Angeles) in the framework of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis project. The precipitation and atmospheric dynamics response to the SST forcing is explored, in terms of intraseasonal variability, evaluating the results from the individual models and from the multimodel mean. A positive precipitation response to wa…

Modification of the southern African rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960s

Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of …

Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon

International audience; We review the studies carried out during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)-EU on the changes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST)-West African monsoon (WAM) covariability at multidecadal timescales, together with the influence of global warming (GW). The results obtained in the AMMA-EU suggest the importance of the background state, modulated by natural and anthropogenic variability, in the appearance of different interannual modes. The lack of reliability of current coupled models in giving a realistic assessment for WAM in the future is also stated.