Segmentazione del mercato del lavoro

Technology and Labor Regulations: Theory and Evidence

This paper shows that different labor market policies can lead to differences in technology across sectors in a model of labor saving technologies. Labor market regulations reduce the skill premium and as a result, if technologies are labor saving, countries with more stringent labor regulation, which bind more for low skilled workers, become less technolog- ically advanced in their high skill sectors, but more technologically advanced in their low skill sectors. We then present data on capital-output ratios, on estimated productivity levels and on patent creation, which tend to support the predictions of our model.

CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE: A NEW APPROACH, NEW DATA, AND NEW RESULTS

Recently, Penn World Tables include new data that enable calculation of total factor productivity in addition to output for a large set of countries. We use these new data to examine convergence and divergence across countries by applying a new approach, which differentiates between the dynamics of output and of productivity. Our empirical results lead to two main new contributions to the literature. The first is on the interpretation of “β-convergence” in “growth regressions.” It means that output per worker in each country converges to productivity but does not imply convergence across countries, since productivity tends to diverge from the global frontier. The second contribution is to t…

Institutions and geography: Empirical test of spatial growth models for European regions

Abstract This article provides an empirical assessment of the growth experiences of European regions, during the period 1991–2004, by taking into account the spatial effects due to both institutions and geography. These effects have been modelled by means of specific controls and by using a non-conventional spatial weight matrix. Results favour a model dealing with substantive spatial externalities. Within this framework, the country-specific institutions are strongly and positively related to the regional productivity's growth rate. In addition, the geo-institutional proximity increases the spatial dependence of the regional output per worker and raises the speed of convergence. By contras…

Clustering and Polarization in the Distribution of Output: A Multivariate Perspective.

Abstract Modeling the cross-country distribution of per capita income using mixture analysis provides a natural platform for the detection of clubs of countries. Unfortunately, these mixture methods, when based on a strictly univariate approach are limiting towards one’s ability to learn about the underlying process of the emergence of what constitutes a club. This paper takes a fresh look at the constitution of the emerging clubs in the distribution of cross-country output using bivariate and multivariate mixture analysis. Our results suggest that clubs are also forming in the main Solowian determinants of economic growth.

Socio-economic inequalities and organized crime: An empirical analysis

In this chapter we contribute to the recent literature (e.g., Istat, 2010, Acciari et al., 2016, Guell et al., 2017) that provides evidence that inequality is high and social mobility is low in the Italian regions and prov-inces where organized crime is widespread such as those of Southern Italy. We complement this line of work in two respects. First, using a novel pan-el dataset at the regional level for the period 1985-2014 we investigate the relationship between inequality and organized crime at the regional level, exploiting both time and cross-sectional variation. Second, we assess the role of social mobility in organized crime. Our main finding is that higher inequality leads to highe…

World Interest Rates, Inequality and Growth: an Empirical Analysis of the Galor-Zeira Model

Following Galor and Zeira (1993), we study the effect of the world interest rate on inequality and growth for the period 1985-2005, characterized by falling world interest rates and cross-country income polarization. We argue that the two phenomena are related on th e basis of the following findings, which are in accordance with the predictions of the Galor and Zeira model: 1) a reduction of the world inter est rates increases inequality in rich countries and decreases inequ ality in poor countries; 2) inequality has a negative (and significant) eff ect on human capital accumulation in rich countries and a positive (b ut mostly not significant) effect in poor countries; 3) human capital po …

Resisting the extortion racket: an empirical analysis

While the contributions on the organized crime and Mafia environments are many, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the firm’s decision to resist to extortion. Our case study is based on Addiopizzo, an NGO that, from 2004, invites firms to refuse requests from the local Mafia and to join a public list of “non-payers”. The research is based on a dataset obtained linking the current administrative archives maintained by the chambers of commerce and the list updated by the NGO. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to gather sound data on the characteristics of the Addiopizzo joiners; second to model the probability to join Addiopizzo by a two-level logistic regression model. We …

Persistence in Italian rate of Unemployment in presence of breaks and regional asymmetries

This work aims to test the persistence of Italian unemployment rate during last fifty years. To this scope we find evidences of a unit root, also when we allow for the presence of structural shifts so that the level of unemployment has a path dependant behaviour. Secondly, we test a possible explanation of the persistence through the presence of cointegration relationships with some institutional labour market variables, such as the union membership. Thirdly, there are asymmetric macroregional behaviours so that the great bulk of persistence is given by Center – Southern unemployment. It implies that changes in unemployment level have longer duration in the poorest part of the country.

A spatially-filtered mixture of beta-convergence regressions for European regions, 1980-2002

Unbundling technology adoption and tfp at the firm level. Do intangibles matter?

We use a panel of European firms to investigate the relationship between intangible assets and productivity. We distinguish between total factor productivity (tfp) and technology adoption, whereas standard estimations consider only a notion of productivity that conflates the two effects. Although we are unable to address simultaneity, we allow for the existence of multiple technologies within sectors through a mixture model approach. We find that intangible assets have nonnegligible effects that both push firms toward better technologies (technology adoption effects) and allow for more efficient exploitation of a given technology (tfp effects).

Do robots complement or substitute for older workers?

Abstract The impact of robotization on labor market outcomes has been recently empirically investigated along several directions, including employment, wages and labor productivity. This work contributes to this literature by looking for heterogeneous effects of robots on the workforce, analyzed by age cohorts. Relying on a panel of data from IFR (2019) and EU KLEMS (2009) over the years 1994–2005, we find consistent evidence of higher complementarity between robots and older workers (hours worked by employees aged 50 and over), and a greater substitutability among robots and younger cohorts of the labor market. These findings are robust to age group disaggregation and specific capital pric…

Institutions and Geography: Empirical tests of Spatial Growth Models for the regions of Europe

This article provides an empirical assessment of the growth experiences of European regions, during the period 1991–2004, by taking into account the spatial effects due to both institutions and geography. These effects have been modelled by means of specific controls and by using a non-conventional spatial weight matrix. Results favour a model dealing with substantive spatial externalities. Within this framework, the country-specific institutions are strongly and positively related to the regional productivity's growth rate. In addition, the geo-institutional proximity increases the spatial dependence of the regional output per worker and raises the speed of convergence. By contrast, the pu…

World Interest Rates and Inequality: Insight from the Galor - Zeira Model

In this paper, we study the relationship between changes in the world interest rate and within-country inequality during the 1985–2005 period in which the world interest rate sharply declined. In line with the predictions of the seminal model of Galor and Zeira [Income distribution and macroeconomics. Review of Economic Studies 60, 35–52], the analysis suggests that the decrease in the world interest rate is associated with a decrease in inequality in poor countries and an increase in inequality in rich ones.

Dualismo tra occupati: evidenze empiriche per il caso Italiano

Questo articolo testa l'esistenza di dualismo dal punto di vista salariale tra lavoratori, applicando un modello di mistura di regressioni. I risultati mostrano differenze di rendimento elevate tra lavoratori a settori "primari" e "secondari".

Schools opening and Covid-19 diffusion: Evidence from geolocalized microdata

Are schools triggering the diffusion of the Covid-19? This question is at the core of an extensive debate about the social and long-run costs of stopping the economic activity and human capital accumulation from reducing the contagion. In principle, many confounding factors, such as climate, health system treatment, and other forms of restrictions, may impede disentangling the link between schooling and Covid-19 cases when focusing on a country or regional-level data. This work sheds light on the potential impact of school opening on the upsurge of contagion by combining a weekly panel of geocoded Covid-19 cases in Sicilian census areas with a unique set of school data. The identification o…

Labor productivity and firm-level TFP with technology-specific production functions

Abstract We investigate the technological dimension of productivity, presenting an empirical methodology based on mixture models to disentangle the labor productivity differences associated with the firm's choice of technology (BTFP) and those related to the firm's ability to exploit the adopted technology (WTFP). The estimation endogenously determines the number of technologies (in the sector) and degree of technology sharing across firms (i.e., for each firm, the probability of using a given technology). By using comparable data for about 35,000 firms worldwide distributed across 22 (two-digit) sectors, we show BTFP to be at least as important as WTFP in explaining the labor productivity …

Shooting down the price: Evidence from Mafia homicides and housing prices

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the homicides by the Camorra, the Neapolitan Mafia, on housing prices in Naples. The study develops on a unique panel data set at the administrative district level for the period 2002–2018 of geo-localized homicides involving innocent victims (denoted as IVH), which are treated as exogenous shocks that negatively affect housing demand. We find that the occurrence of such homicides causes a decrease in housing prices in the range of 2.5–3.8 percentage points. This effect decreases with the distance from an IVH and over time. These results are robust to the utilization of different econometric specifications and to the considerations of possible confou…

School-age vaccination, school openings and Covid-19 diffusion

This article investigates the relationship between school openings and Covid-19 diffusion when school-age vaccination becomes available. The analysis relies on a unique geo-referenced high frequency database on age of vaccination, Covid-19 cases and hospitalization indicators from the Italian region of Sicily. The study focuses on the change of Covid-19 diffusion after school opening in a homogeneous geographical territory (i.e., with the same control measures and surveillance systems, centrally coordinated by the Regional Government). The identification of causal effects derives from a comparison of the change in cases before and after school opening in the school year 2020/21, when vaccin…

The Effects of Fiscal Redistribution

Every discussion on income distribution and inequality distinguishes between market income, namely income before tax and without transfers, and disposable, or net income, which is after tax and including transfers. Hence, taxation and transfers create a redistribution of income. This redistribution is usually progressive, as direct taxes and subsidies are progressive, and thus it is supposed to reduce inequality, in the transition from market income to disposable income. This paper focuses on measuring the effect of fiscal policy in income redistribution and in reducing inequality. It also examines which type of fiscal policy is most strongly related to the redistribution of income, are the…

Is the productivity premium of internationalized firms technology-driven?

AbstractWe ask whether the productivity advantage of internationalized firms documented by the international trade literature can be interpreted most accurately in terms of proximity to the “technological frontier”. We answer in the affirmative using a methodology (based on mixture models) of unbundling technology and total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating “technology-specific” production function parameters. Exploiting detailed data provided by the EFIGE database (a sample of firms distributed across Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Spain, and the UK), we find technology gaps (with respect to the frontier) more than three times larger than the TFP gaps on average. We also f…

Evolution of the Global Distribution of Carbon Dioxide: A Finite Mixture Analysis

Economists and environmental policymakers have recently begun advocating a bottom-up approach to climate change mitigation, focusing on reduction targets for groups of nations, rather than large scale global policies. We advance this discussion by taking a quantitative perspective, focusing on econometric identification of groups of countries that have statistically similar distributions of carbon emissions using a broad range of finite mixture models. Nearly all of our results yield a consistent pattern: after 1980, there are two distinct emissions distributions, and that these distributions continue to evolve over time. We provide a rigorous analysis of these distributional differences al…

Unbundling Technology Adoption andtfpat the Firm Level: Do Intangibles Matter?

We use a panel of European firms to investigate the relationship between intangible assets and productivity. We distinguish between total factor productivity (tfp) and technology adoption, whereas standard estimations consider only a notion of productivity that conflates the two effects. Although we are unable to address simultaneity, we allow for the existence of multiple technologies within sectors through a mixture model approach. We find that intangible assets have nonnegligible effects that both push firms toward better technologies (technology adoption effects) and allow for more efficient exploitation of a given technology (tfp effects).

Labor Productivity Growth: Disentangling Technology and Capital Accumulation

We adopt a counterfactual approach to decompose labor productivity growth into growth of Technological Productivity (TEP), growth of the capital-labor ratio and growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP). We bring the decomposition to the data using international countrysectoral information spanning from the 1960s to the 2000s and a nonparametric generalized kernel method, which enables us to estimate the production function allowing for heterogeneity across all relevant dimensions: countries, sectors and time. As well as documenting substantial heterogeneity across countries and sectors, we nd average TEP to account for about 44% of labor productivity growth and TEP gaps with respect to the…

Flexible Wage Contracts, Temporary Jobs, and Firm Performance: Evidence From Italian Firms

This study focuses on the effects of decentralized wage schemes and temporary forms of employment on firm performance. The effect of monetary incentives on workers' effort and firm performance is a central topic in economics. According to the principal-agent paradigm, firms (the principal) have to link employees' remuneration schemes to any verifiable indicator of performance to avoid opportunistic behavior. The empirical evidence shows that financial incentives have the potential to exert strong effects on indicators of firm performance, such as productivity and worker absenteeism, although the degree of effectiveness of such schemes varies significantly according to the institutional/econ…

GDP clustering: A reappraisal

Abstract This note explores clustering in cross country GDP per capita using recently developed model based clustering methods for panel data. Previous research characterizing the components of the overall distribution of output either use ad hoc methods, or methods which ignore/subvert the panel nature of the data. These new methods allow the characterization of the possible autoregressive relationship of output between time points. We show that traditional static clustering decade by decade gives mixed results regarding clustering over time, while the application of longitudinal mixtures presents three distinct clusters at all periods of time.

A new look at global growth convergence and divergence

A key question in economics is whether poor countries will automatically close the income gap with rich countries. However, different empirical methods yield different answers – growth regressions suggest convergence, whereas tests of distribution dynamics suggest divergence. This column discusses recent research that reconciles these two strands of the literature. It extends the benchmark growth regression model to include a parameter that determines the share of new technologies a country can adopt each year. The result is that, although each country converges to a growth path, the growth paths themselves may diverge

Decomposing changes in the conditional variance of GDP over time

A well established fact in the growth empirics literature is the increasing (unconditional) variation in output per capita across countries. We propose a nonparametric decomposition of the conditional variation of output per capita across countries to capture different channels over which the variation might be increasing. We find that OECD countries have experienced diminishing conditional variation while other regions have experienced increasing conditional variation. Our decomposition suggests that most of these changes in the conditional variance of output are due to unobserved factors not accounted for by the traditional growth determinants. In addition to this we show that these facto…

Skill Biased Technical Change and Misallocation: A Unified Framework

Due to strict reliance on competitive labor markets, standard approaches which measure skill biased technical change (SBTC) conflate labor market distortions which prevent firms from choosing the efficient ratio between skilled and unskilled labor and `true' SBTC. This contrasts with recent evidence on decoupling between wages and productivity. To overcome this limitation, we present a unified framework to estimate SBTC which accounts for factor accumulation (FA) effects, and quantifies the discrepancy (i.e., relative misallocation) between the wage ratio (skilled to unskilled) and the marginal rate of technical substitution (MRTS). The suggested methodology takes advantage of recent develo…

Will the last be the first? School closures and educational outcomes

Governments have implemented school closures and online learning as one of the main tools to reduce the spread of Covid-19. Despite the potential benefits in terms of containment of virus diffusion, the educational costs of these policies may be dramatic. This work identifies these costs, expressed as decrease in test scores, for the whole universe of Italian students attending the 5th, 8th and 13th grade of the school cycle during the 2021/22 school year. The analysis is based on a difference-in-difference model in relative time, where the control group is the closest generation before the Covid-19 pandemic. Results suggest a national average loss between 1.8-4.0% in Mathematics and Italia…

La proposta di Direttiva Bolkestein fra nuove esigenze e paure di innovazione

By the beginning of this year, EU institutions are approving a proposal of directive on the internal market services liberalization. It is probably the last important step along the path of european economic integration, started in 1957 with the Treaty of Rome. The proposal has not yet an easy pattern, above all for the "country of origin principle". This principle is seen by the supporters as an important tool to speed up the process, but by the opponents as a way to favour possible bottom races for social standards, due to a competition based exclusively upon the employment factor. A basic question is what it will remain at the end of the day, after revisions, corrections, integrations th…

Socio-Demographic Factors Involved in a Low-Incidence Phase of SARS-CoV-2 Spread in Sicily, Italy

Background: The present study analysed SARS-CoV-2 cases observed in Sicily and investigated social determinants that could have an impact on the virus spread. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 cases observed among Sicilian residents between the 1 February 2020 and 15 October 2020 have been included in the analyses. Age, sex, date of infection detection, residency, clinical outcomes, and exposure route have been evaluated. Each case has been linked to the census section of residency and its socio-demographic data. Results: A total of 10,114 patients (202.3 cases per 100,000 residents

Taking care of everyone’s business: interpreting Sicilian Mafia embedment through spatial network analysis

Mafia-type organisations often have a strong geographical and cultural entrenchment in the territory they belong. However, their analysis as a spatially networked social structure is still missing. A combined socio-spatial network analysis is presented here, through the demise of a large police operation called Operazione Perseo in 2008. This approach is developed in two ways. At first, a visual representation of the social network of this large group of mafiosi embedded in a geographical space is presented. Three main salient territorial features of the network are thus highlighted. A high density of links in some neighbourhoods, as well as connections across different Mandamenti, the terr…

Global Divergence in Growth Regressions

This paper extends the standard growth regression model by adding an assumption that a country follows the global technology frontier either fully or partially. This additional assumption changes significantly the growth regression model and its results in three main ways. First, it shows that although a country converges to its long-run growth path, this path can diverge from the countries at the global frontier. We measure the degree of divergence for each country and find that most indeed diverge from the frontier. Second, we estimate growth dynamics without controlling for additional variables. Third, our new method enables us to disentangle the effects of the explanatory variables on t…

A spatially filtered mixture of β-convergence regressions for EU regions, 1980–2002

Assessing regional growth and convergence across Europe is a matter of primary relevance. Empirical models that do not account for structural heterogeneities and spatial effects may face serious misspecification problems. In this work, a mixture regression approach is applied to the beta-convergence model, in order to produce an endogenous selection of regional growth patterns. A priori choices, such as North-South or centre-periphery divisions, are avoided. In addition to this, we deal with the spatial dependence existing in the data, applying a local filter to the data. The results indicate that spatial effects matter, and either absolute, conditional, or club convergence, if extended to …

Modeling Return to Education in Heterogeneous Populations: An Application to Italy

The Mincer human capital earnings function is a regression model that relates individual’s earnings to schooling and experience. It has been used to explain individual behavior with respect to educational choices and to indicate productivity on a large number of countries and across many different demographic groups. However, recent empirical studies have shown that often the population of interest embed latent homogeneous subpopulations, with different returns to education across subpopulations, rendering a single Mincer’s regression inadequate. Moreover, whatever (concomitant) information is available about the nature of such a heterogeneity, it should be incorporated in an appropriate ma…

Reassessing segmentation in the Labour Market: an application for Italy 1995-2004.

The aim of this paper is to test for the presence of dualism in a standard wage regression. The disparity in wages between primary and secondary workers, according to labour market segmentation theory, is not provided by worker characteristics, but rather by job characteristics. A standard way to assess this situation is by looking at the estimated coefficients in a standard regression for comparable workers across different labour market segments. In an attempt to avoid arbitrary modelling choices, we deploy mixture regression methods which allow for endogenous determination of the number of existing labour market segments. Using Italian data, our modelling strategy outlines stark differen…