0000000000072330
AUTHOR
Risto Lahdelma
Multicriteria Decision Aiding for Planning Renewable Power Production at Moroccan Airports
This study is about multicriteria decision aiding (MCDA) for the green airports program of the Moroccan Airport Authority ONDA. The goal of the program is to develop significant amounts of renewable power at airports. In particular, ONDA wants to select airports at which large solar and wind power parks should be built. Multiple criteria, including economy, technical feasibility, and environmental concerns, must be considered simultaneously. In this study, we apply Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) for ranking the candidates to be developed into green airports. The analysis is conducted in phases with different sets of criteria. This study is the first application of MC…
Classifying efficient alternatives in SMAA using cross confidence factors
Abstract Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods for aiding multicriteria group decision making. These methods are based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the preferences that make each alternative the most preferred one. The main results of the analysis are rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors and confidence factors for different alternatives. The rank acceptability indices describe the variety of different preferences resulting in a certain rank for an alternative; the central weight vectors represent the typical preferences favouring each alternative; and the confidence factors measure whether the criteria data are suff…
Multicriteria evaluation of alternatives for remote monitoring systems of municipal buildings
Abstract Conservation of natural resources drives municipalities to monitor their heat, power and water consumption more accurately. The objective of this study was to evaluate different implementation possibilities for remote monitoring systems for the municipal buildings of two medium-sized municipalities, Hollola and Nastola in Southern Finland. Four different alternatives were considered: (1) a system by an external service provider, (2) a system provided by the local energy distribution company, (3) a system built by the municipalities themselves, and (4) using the current manual system but with more frequent data collection. The alternatives were evaluated in terms of multiple functio…
Reference point approach for multiple decision makers
We consider multiple criteria decision-making problems where a group of decision-makers wants to find the most preferred solution from a discrete set of alternatives. We develop a method that uses achievement functions for charting subsets of reference points that would support a certain alternative to be the most preferred one. The resulting descriptive information is provided to the decision-makers in the form of reference acceptability indices and central reference points for each decision alternative. Then, the decision-makers can compare this information with their own preferences. We demonstrate the use of the method using a strategic multiple criteria decision model for an electricit…
Using SMAA-2 method with dependent uncertainties for strategic forest planning
Abstract Uncertainty included in forest variables is normally ignored in forest management planning. When the uncertainty is accounted for, it is typically assumed to be independently distributed for the criteria measurements of different alternatives. In forest management planning, the factors introducing the uncertainty can be classified into three main sources: the errors in the basic forestry data, the uncertainty of the (relative) future prices of timber, and the uncertainty in predicting the forest development. Due to the nature of these error sources, most of the involved uncertainties can be assumed to be positively correlated across the alternative management plans and/or criteria.…
Treating Ordinal Criteria in Stochastic Weight Space Analysis
We consider discrete co-operative group decision-making problems and suggest a method that is aimed at providing descriptive information about the acceptability of different decision alternatives. The method is a new variant of the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) method for discrete multicriteria decision-making problems with multiple decision makers. The new method is designed for problems where criterion information is completely or partially ordinal, that is, experts (or decision makers) have ranked the alternatives criterion-wise. The approach is particularly suitable for group decision making where either no or only partial preference information is available ass…
Comparing multicriteria methods in the context of environmental problems
Abstract The present paper gives an analysis of the use of ELECTRE III, PROMETHEE I, II, and SMART decision-aids in the context of four different real applications to environmental problems in Finland. These methods are widely used decision-aids in the real planning processes. The purpose of this study is to define the differences of these methods and the results obtained with them, and in this way also to consider their applicability in aiding environmental decision-making. Furthermore, a comparison of the methods based on a set of randomly generated problems is carried out. The choice in practice will not be easy; PROMETHEE does not differ much from SMART with linear value functions, and …
SMAA-TRI
ELECTRE TRI is a multiple criteria decision aiding sorting method with a history of successful real-life applications. In ELECTRE TRI, values for certain parameters, such as criteria weights, thresholds, category profiles, and lambda cutting level, have to be provided. We propose a new method, SMAA-TRI, that is based on Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA), for analyzing the stability of such parameters. The stability analysis can be used for deriving robust conclusions. SMAATRI allows ELECTRE TRI to be used with imprecise, arbitrarily distributed values for weights and the lambda cutting level. The method consists of analyzing through Monte Carlo simulation finite spaces …
The analytic hierarchy process with stochastic judgements
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a widely-used method for multicriteria decision support based on the hierarchical decomposition of objectives, evaluation of preferences through pairwise comparisons, and a subsequent aggregation into global evaluations. The current paper integrates the AHP with stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA), an inverse-preference method, to allow the pairwise comparisons to be uncertain. A simulation experiment is used to assess how the consistency of judgements and the ability of the SMAA-AHP model to discern the best alternative deteriorates as uncertainty increases. Across a range of simulated problems results indicate that, according to c…
Multicriteria evaluation of heating choices for a new sustainable residential area
Abstract The city of Loviisa in Finland is planning a new sustainable residential area with a total of 240,000 m2 of residential houses and apartment buildings with services. The city wants to promote sustainable energy solutions in the area, considering various renewable energy forms for heating. The aim of this research is to evaluate which heating system would be best for a new single-family house when different technical, economic, environmental and usability criteria are considered. A group of experts evaluated the alternative heating systems with respect to the criteria. The citizens were involved with a questionnaire to provide preference information for different criteria. Altogethe…
Decision support for centralizing cargo at a Moroccan airport hub using stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis
The geographical location of Morocco places it at the heart of important sea, air, rail and motorway transport routes between four continents. In this study we evaluate different alternatives to centralize multimodal cargo at a Moroccan airport hub. The choice depends on different socio-economical criteria, the geographical location, and the environmental impacts. Some of the criteria can be measured quantitatively, while for others only qualitative assessment is feasible. Furthermore, significant uncertainty is present in both the criteria measurements and the preferences. We aided this decision process using Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA). SMAA is a method that all…
A multiple criteria decision model for analyzing and choosing among different development patterns for the Helsinki cargo harbor
Abstract This paper describes a real application of a multicriteria approach to choosing among different options for developing the Helsinki harbor. In addition to the environmental impact assessment procedure, an analysis of the alternatives using the SMAA-method (Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis) is carried out. The method applied here has been developed for situations in which the use of decision-makers’ preference information is not possible. Instead, the problem is described by typical weight vectors leading to each solution, taking into account the evident uncertainty embedded in the criteria values.
Complementary Judgment Matrix Method with Imprecise Information for Multicriteria Decision-Making
The complementary judgment matrix (CJM) method is an MCDA (multicriteria decision aiding) method based on pairwise comparisons. As in AHP, the decision-maker (DM) can specify his/her preferences using pairwise comparisons, both between different criteria and between different alternatives with respect to each criterion. The DM specifies his/her preferences by allocating two nonnegative comparison values so that their sum is 1. We measure and pinpoint possible inconsistency by inconsistency errors. We also compare the consistency of CJM and AHP trough simulation. Because preference judgments are always more or less imprecise or uncertain, we introduce a way to represent the uncertainty throu…
SMAA - Stochastic multiobjective acceptability analysis
Stochastic multiobjective acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a multicriteria decision support technique for multiple decision makers based on exploring the weight space. Inaccurate or uncertain input data can be represented as probability distributions. In SMAA the decision makers need not express their preferences explicitly or implicitly; instead the technique analyses what kind of valuations would make each alternative the preferred one. The method produces for each alternative an acceptability index measuring the variety of different valuations that support that alternative, a central weight vector representing the typical valuations resulting in that decision, and a confidence factor mea…
Determining the implementation order of a general plan by using a multicriteria method
We describe a real-life application of a new multicriteria method in the context of assisting the decision-making for a general plan in the municipality of Kirkkonummi in Uusimaa, Finland. At the time our group started working on the problem, a proposal for an overall plan had already been completed, but the order in which different regional parts of the plan should be implemented needed to be considered based on the environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedure. The EIA procedure generated a large amount of data about the different impacts of the alternatives. For this group decision making problem we developed the SMAA-3 decision support method which does not require any explicit prefer…
Multivariate Gaussian criteria in SMAA
Abstract We consider stochastic multicriteria decision-making problems with multiple decision makers. In such problems, the uncertainty or inaccuracy of the criteria measurements and the partial or missing preference information can be represented through probability distributions. In many real-life problems the uncertainties of criteria measurements may be dependent. However, it is often difficult to quantify these dependencies. Also, most of the existing methods are unable to handle such dependency information. In this paper, we develop a method for handling dependent uncertainties in stochastic multicriteria group decision-making problems. We measure the criteria, their uncertainties and…
A stochastic method for robustness analysis in sorting problems
ELECTRE TRI is a multiple criteria decision aiding sorting method with a history of successful real-life applications. In ELECTRE TRI, values for certain parameters have to be provided. We propose a new method, SMAA-TRI, that is based on stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA), for analyzing the stability of such parameters. The stability analysis can be used for deriving robust conclusions. SMAA-TRI allows ELECTRE TRI to be used with uncertain, arbitrarily distributed values for weights, the lambda cutting level, and profiles. The method consists of analyzing finite spaces of arbitrarily distributed parameter values. Monte Carlo simulation is applied in this in order to desc…
Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis using the data envelopment model
Abstract Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-2) are methods for evaluating alternatives based on multiple criteria. While DEA is mainly an ex-post tool used for classifying alternatives into efficient and inefficient ones, SMAA-2 is an ex-ante tool for supporting multiple criteria decision-making. Both methods use a kind of value function where the importance of criteria is modeled using weights. Unlike many other methods, neither DEA nor SMAA-2 requires decision-makers’ weights as input. Instead, these so-called non-parametric methods explore the weight space in order to identify weights favorable for each alternative. This paper introd…
Multicriteria evaluation of sustainable energy solutions for Colosseum
Abstract Colosseum is a large office building in the capital region of Finland. The building owner operates on the highly competitive office rental market. With increasing emphasis on environmental responsibility, energy efficiency and sustainable energy solutions can provide competitive edge on the rental market. This study evaluates in terms of multiple criteria different alternatives to enhance the energy solutions of the building. The alternatives included different configurations of solar power, ground source heat, and roof constructions, along with district heating. Decision criteria included internal rate of return, energy efficiency, CO2 emissions, and attractiveness. Attractiveness…
Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA)
Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a family of methods for aiding multicriteria group decision making in problems with uncertain, imprecise or partially missing information. These methods are based on exploring the weight space in order to describe the preferences that make each alternative the most preferred one, or that would give a certain rank for a specific alternative. The main results of the analysis are rank acceptability indices, central weight vectors and confidence factors for different alternatives. The rank acceptability indices describe the variety of different preferences resulting in a certain rank for an alternative, the central weight vectors represe…
Multicriteria evaluation of carbon-neutral heat-only production technologies for district heating
Climate change mitigation requires reducing dependence on fossil fuels and transition to low carbon energy production technologies. Nearly half of the global final energy consumption is thermal energy produced from technologies with high carbon dioxide emission. As such, it is imperative to employ carbon-neutral heat production to achieve a sustainable energy system. This paper presents a real-life case of applying multicriteria decision analysis for evaluating carbon-neutral heat-only production technologies in a major district heating system in Finland. A group of 10 experts from the energy company contributed in defining the alternative technologies and multiple economic, technological, …
SMAA in Robustness Analysis
Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a simulation based method for discrete multicriteria decision aiding problems where information is uncertain, imprecise, or partially missing. In SMAA, different kind of uncertain information is represented by probability distributions. Because SMAA considers simultaneously the uncertainty in all parameters, it is particularly useful for robustness analysis. Depending on the problem setting, SMAA determines all possible rankings or classifications for the alternatives, and quantifies the possible results in terms of probabilities. This chapter describes SMAA in robustness analysis using a real-life decision problem as an example. Bas…
Optimization and Multicriteria Evaluation of District Heat Production and Storage
Climate change mitigation policy requires reducing dependence on fossil fuels and transition to low carbon energy production in district heating (DH). We study here inclusion of two kinds of renewable energy to a CHP based DH system in Finland: solar heat and ground source heat. In addition, we apply heat storages to balance the gap between production and fluctuating demand. The optimal operation of the extended systems is determined by a simulation and optimization model to minimize the operating costs. We evaluate the different possible extensions in terms of multiple economic, technical and environmental criteria using Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA). The results s…
Multicriteria decision support in a technology competition for cleaning polluted soil in Helsinki
Due to expansion of the capital area in Finland, industrial areas are being replanned for residential and commercial use. The soil in these areas is sometimes contaminated, and must therefore be cleaned before building. In spring 1997 the City of Helsinki and the National Technology Agency of Finland declared a contract-based competition for cleaning the polluted soil of the planned Toukolanranta residential area. Nine proposals entered the competition, and the problem was to choose three best candidates for test-cleaning a small part of the region considered. The winner of the test-cleaning phase will get the contract for cleaning the whole area. The proposals were evaluated based on five …
ORDINAL MEASUREMENTS WITH INTERVAL CONSTRAINTS IN THE EIA PROCESS FOR SITING A WASTE STORAGE AREA
We describe application of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) procedure for siting a waste storage area. The world’s largest biofuel-based combined heat and power (CHP) plant was built in Pietarsaari, Finland. The plant produces certain byproducts, such as flue dust and bottom ash, which need to be processed and stored to prevent releases to the environment. Different storage sites will have different impacts on people, nature, and the economy. Cardinal measurement of the different impacts was considered too costly. Instead, ordinal measurement of all criteria was applied; i.e., experts ranked the alternative storage sites according to each c…
Two ways to handle dependent uncertainties in multi-criteria decision problems☆
Abstract We consider multi-criteria group decision-making problems, where the decision makers (DMs) want to identify their most preferred alternative(s) based on uncertain or inaccurate criteria measurements. In many real-life problems the uncertainties may be dependent. In this paper, we focus on multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems where the criteria and their uncertainties are computed using a stochastic simulation model. The model is based on decision variables and stochastic parameters with given distributions. The simulation model determines for the criteria a joint probability distribution, which quantifies the uncertainties and their dependencies. We present and compare two…
Stochastic multicriteria evaluation of district heating systems considering the uncertainties
It is of great importance to choose a suitable district heating (DH) system for a specific DH area from the economics, environment and energy (3E) points of view. This is a multicriteria decision making problem, in which the criteria performance values (PVs) and weighting are characterized by uncertain or imprecise information. In this study, seven candidate DH systems are evaluated from the viewpoints of 3E by the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) method. SMAA is able to handle the uncertainties of the criteria PVs and the weighting at the same time. These uncertainties are very common and typical in real-life, but in most cases are not treated judiciously or just negl…
Prospect theory and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA)
Abstract We consider problems where multiple decision makers (DMs) want to choose their most preferred alternative from a finite set based on multiple criteria. Several approaches to support DMs in such problems have been suggested. Prospect theory has appealed to researchers through its descriptive power, but rare attempts have been made to apply it to support multicriteria decision making. The basic idea of prospect theory is that alternatives are evaluated by a difference function in terms of gains and losses with respect to a reference point. The function is suggested to be concave for gains and convex for losses and steeper for losses than for gains. Stochastic multicriteria acceptabil…
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Choosing the Remediation Method for a Landfill Based on Mixed Ordinal and Cardinal Information
We describe a real-life application of a multicriteria method in the context of remediating a landfill in Finland. The landfill was used for dumping industrial waste during the years 1950 to 1965. During that time many harmful chemicals were stored in landfills among other waste. Therefore, this—and possibly several other—landfills have to be remediated. In this application, seven different remediation options were evaluated based on 13 criteria. For some criteria, cardinal measures with associated uncertainties were obtained. For other criteria, only ordinal (ranking) information was available. The problem was analyzed using the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis with Ordinal …