Future Projection of precipitation changes in the Júcar and Segura River Basins (Iberian Peninsula) by CMIP5 GCMs Local Downscaling
The basins of the Júcar and Segura rivers, on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, present a special water problem and are of particular interest regarding climate change. These basins are very vulnerable to a possible scenario of decreasing water resources. Recent studies on historic rainfall since 1955 have indicated an ongoing loss of precipitation in their headwaters, especially in the case of the Júcar river. The aim of the present study is to perform climate projections for the precipitation variable for several future periods (2021–2040, 2051–2070, 2081–2100) and emission scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 8.5) within the Júcar and Segura River Basin authorities. For this purpose, a s…
A component-based approximation for trend detection of intense rainfall in the Spanish Mediterranean coast
Rainfall behavior is a fundamental issue in areas with scarce and irregular amounts, such as the Spanish Mediterranean region. We identified 12 spatial patterns that characterized 899 torrential precipitation events (≥150 mm in 24 h) that occurred in the 3,537 rainy precipitation series in the period 1950–2020. Three of these components––eastern and ESE––showed positive and significant trends in their accumulated volumes. We then characterized the mean synoptic causes of the 10 most intense events in each component at both mean sea-level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height, and also the integrated water-vapor transport between 1,000 and 300 hPa. We found a clear spatial distribution of…
Winter “weekend effect” in southern Europe and its connections with periodicities in atmospheric dynamics
[1] Winter weekly cycles of different climatic variables have been detected over Spain during the 1961–2004 period. The 13 analyzed series come from stations placed on different climatological and geographical areas with different level of urban influence. Therefore, the weekly cycles can hardly be related with local effects. Contrarily, we suggest that the weekly cycles may be related with changes in the atmospheric circulation over Western Europe, which may be due to some indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols. Particularly interesting is the observed increase in Sea Level Pressure over Southern Europe during the weekends and consequently a decrease of anticyclonic conditions during th…