El patrón oro y el euro. Una reflexión a partir de la lectura de A Tract on Monetary Reform

This paper makes a comparison between the gold standard and the euro through a study of Keynes’s views on the need to manage the macroeconomic situation of an industrial economy. The essay centers on Keynes’s first relevant economic work of the post World War I years, A Tract on Monetary Reform, analyzing its theoretical and practical content. The situation of monetary instability and the choice of exchange regime (to return or not to the gold standard, with the parity prior to the war) were the factors that attracted Keynes’s attention in those years. Similarities between the gold standard and the present euro system bestow a certain interest on Keynes’s ideas and on the economic discussio…

Threshold cointegration and nonlinear adjustment between stock prices and dividends

According to several empirical studies, the linear present-value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long run. We analyse the possible presence of threshold cointegration between real stock prices and dividends for the US market during the period from 1871:1 to 2004:6. According to our results, the null hypothesis of linear cointegration between stock prices and dividends is rejected in favour of a two-regime threshold cointegration model. We find also that stock prices do not respond to equilibrium error, and dividends respond to the past divergence only if the deviation from the equilibrium error does not exceed the estimated threshold parameter. This in turn would…

The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871–2012

Are there threshold effects in the stock price–dividend relation? The case of the US stock market, 1871–2004

We use recent developments on threshold autoregressive models that allow deriving endogenously threshold effects to analyse the evolution of the US stock price–dividend relation over the period 1871 to 2004. More specifically, a mean-reverting dynamic behaviour of the stock price–dividend ratio should be expected once such threshold is reached. Our empirical results showed that significant adjustments would occur when, in a particular year, the stock price–dividend ratio had shown a decrease of more than 8.0% between the previous year and the fourth year before, which implies nonlinearities in the dynamic behaviour of the US stock price–dividend relation.

Testing explosive bubbles with time-varying volatility: the case of Spanish public debt

In this paper the dynamics of the Spanish public debt-GDP ratio is analysed during the period 1850–2021. We use recent procedures to test for explosive bubbles in the presence under time- varying volatility (Harvey et al., 2016; Harvey et al., 2019, 2020; Kurozumi et al., 2022) in order to test the explosive behavior of Spanish public debt over this long period. We extend previous analysis of Esteve and Prats (2022) where assume constant unconditional volatility in the underlying error process.

Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S.

Abstract According to several empirical studies, the Present Value model fails to explain the behaviour of stock prices in the long-run. In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the Present Value model of U.S. stock prices. Our methodology is based on instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) as well as the cointegration tests developed in Arai and Kurozumi (2007) and Kejriwal (2008). The results obtained are consistent with the existence of linear cointegration between the log stock prices and the log dividends. However, our empirical r…

External sustainability in Spanish economy: bubbles and crises, 1970–2020

We address the issue of the sustainability Spain’s exter-nal debt, using data for the period 1970–2020. To detect episodes of potentially explosive behavior of the Spanish net foreign assets over GDP ratio and the current account balance over GDP ratio, as well as episodes of external adjustments over this long period, we employ a recursive unit root test approach. Our empirical analysis leads us to conclude that there is some evidence of bubbles in the ratio between Spanish net foreign assets and the GDP. In contrast, the evidence that the ratio between the Spanish current account balance and the GDP had explosive subperiods is very weak. The episode of explosive behavior identified in the…