Mania risk is characterized by an aberrant optimistic update bias for positive life events

Abstract Background Early cognitive models of mania posit that a cognitive triad consisting of unrealistically optimistic beliefs about the self, world and future may predispose vulnerable individuals to develop manic symptoms. Hypomanic personality traits (HYP) pose such a vulnerability factor in the etiopathogenesis of mania. Methods To test the cognitive tenet of overly optimistic views of the future, 24 individuals with high-HYP and 24 age- and sex-matched controls (low-HYP) performed a belief update paradigm, during which they estimated their personal chances to experience future positive and negative life events. Afterwards, they were presented with the statistical likelihood of each …