Projective metrics and mixing properties on towers

Some multivariate risk indicators ; estimation and application to optimal reserve allocation

National audience; We consider a vectorial risk process ...

Applications de type Lasota–Yorke à trou : mesure de probabilité conditionellement invariante et mesure de probabilité invariante sur l'ensemble des survivants

Abstract Let T :I→I be a Lasota–Yorke map on the interval I, let Y be a nontrivial sub-interval of I and g 0 :I→ R + , be a strictly positive potential which belongs to BV and admits a conformal measure m. We give constructive conditions on Y ensuring the existence of absolutely continuous (w.r.t. m) conditionally invariant probability measures to nonabsorption in Y. These conditions imply also existence of an invariant probability measure on the set X∞ of points which never fall into Y. Our conditions allow rather “large” holes.

Invariant measures for piecewise convex transformations of an interval

Risk indicators with several lines of business: comparison, asymptotic behavior and applications to optimal reserve allocation

International audience; In a multi-dimensional risk model with dependent lines of business, we propose to allocate capital with respect to the minimization of some risk indicators. These indicators are sums of expected penalties due to the insolvency of a branch while the global reserve is either positive or negative. Explicit formulas in the case of two branches are obtained for several models independent exponential, correlated Pareto). The asymptotic behavior (as the initial capital goes to infinity) is studied. For higher dimension and several periods, no explicit expression is available. Using a stochastic algorithm, we get estimations of the allocation, compare the different allocatio…

Almost sure rates of mixing for i.i.d. unimodal maps

International audience; It has been known since the pioneering work of Jakobson and subsequent work by Benedicks and Carleson and others that a positive measure set of quadratic maps admit an absolutely continuous invariant measure. Young and Keller-Nowicki proved exponential decay of its correlation functions. Benedicks and Young, and Baladi and Viana studied stability of the density and exponential rate of decay of the Markov chain associated to i.i.d. small perturbations. The almost sure statistical properties of the sample stationary measures of i.i.d. itineraries are more difficult to estimate than the "averaged statistics". Adapting to random systems, on the one hand partitions associ…

Exponential inequalities and estimation of conditional probabilities

This paper deals with the problems of typicality and conditional typicality of “empirical probabilities” for stochastic process and the estimation of potential functions for Gibbs measures and dynamical systems. The questions of typicality have been studied in [FKT88] for independent sequences, in [BRY98, Ris89] for Markov chains. In order to prove the consistency of estimators of transition probability for Markov chains of unknown order, results on typicality and conditional typicality for some (Ψ)-mixing process where obtained in [CsS, Csi02]. Unfortunately, lots of natural mixing process do not satisfy this Ψ -mixing condition (see [DP05]). We consider a class of mixing process inspired …

Statistical properties of general Markov dynamical sources: applications to information theory

In \textitDynamical sources in information theory: fundamental intervals and word prefixes, B. Vallée studies statistical properties of words generated by dynamical sources. This is done using generalized Ruelle operators. The aim of this article is to generalize sources for which the results hold. First, we avoid the use of Grotendieck theory and Fredholm determinants, this allows dynamical sources that cannot be extended to a complex disk or that are not analytic. Second, we consider Markov sources: the language generated by the source over an alphabet \textbfM is not necessarily \textbfM^*.

On the existence of conditionally invariant probability measures in dynamical systems

Let T : X→X be a measurable map defined on a Polish space X and let Y be a non-trivial subset of X. We give conditions ensuring the existence of conditionally invariant probability measures to non-absorption in Y. For dynamics which are non-singular with respect to some fixed probability measure we supply sufficient conditions for the existence of absolutely continuous conditionally invariant measures. These conditions are satisfied for a wide class of dynamical systems including systems that are Φ-mixing and Gibbs.