0000000000096185
AUTHOR
F. Leron Shults
sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 – Supplemental Material for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study
Supplemental Material, sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study by Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, Rachel J. Bacon, David Voas, F. LeRon Shults, George Hodulik and Wesley J. Wildman in Social Science Computer Review
Forecasting Changes in Religiosity and Existential Security with an Agent-Based Model
We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) and…
Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analyses of Religiosity. A Four-Factor Conceptual Model
We describe an exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Cumulation (1991-1998-2008) data set, to identify the factors of individual religiosity and their interrelations in quantitative terms. The exploratory factor analysis was performed using data from the first two waves (1991 and 1998), and led to the identification of four strongly correlated and reliable factors which we labeled Religious formation, Supernatural beliefs, Belief in God, and Religious practice. The confirmatory factor analysis was run using data from 2008, and led to the confirmation of this four-factor structure with very good fit measures. We also ran a set of s…
InCREDulity in Artificial Societies
This paper describes an artificial society in which the simulated agents behave and interact based on a computational architecture informed by insights from one of the leading social psychological theories in the scientific study of secularization and religion: “credibility-enhancing displays” (or CREDs) theory. After introducing the key elements of the theory and outlining the computational architecture of our CRED model, we present some of our initial simulation results. These efforts are intended to advance the quest within social simulation for more authentic artificial societies and more plausible human-like agents with complex interactive and interpretative capacities.
Post-Supernatural Cultures: There and Back Again
The abandonment of supernatural religious beliefs and rituals seems to occur quite easily in some contexts, but post-supernaturalist cultures require a specific set of conditions that are difficult to produce and sustain on a large scale and thus are historically rare. Despite the worldwide resurgence of supernaturalist religion, some subcultures reliably produce people who deny the existence of supernatural entities. This social phenomenon has evoked competing explanations, many of which enjoy empirical support. We synthesize six of the most influential social-science explanations, demonstrating that they provide complementary perspectives on a complex causal architecture. We incorporate t…
Spirit and Spirituality: Philosophical Trends in Late Modern Pneumatology
AbstractThis dialogue piece reviews some of the key developments in the doctrine of the Holy Spirit in late modern theology that have contributed to the scholarly and practical integration of pneumatology and Christian spirituality. Shifts in the meaning and use of three concepts — matter, person, and force — have played a particularly influential role in these developments. These trends are illustrated in several recent pneumatological proposals. The final section outlines some new directions for the ongoing task of reforming pneumatology.
sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 – Supplemental Material for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study
Supplemental Material, sj-pdf-1-ssc-10.1177_08944393221082685 for Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study by Ivan Puga-Gonzalez, Rachel J. Bacon, David Voas, F. LeRon Shults, George Hodulik and Wesley J. Wildman in Social Science Computer Review
WISING UP: THE EVOLUTION OF NATURAL THEOLOGY
This essay is in response to Professor Celia Deane-Drummond's 2012 Boyle lectures. The first part calls attention to the value and significance of her “sophianic theo-drama hypothesis” for the contemporary engagement between Christian theology and evolutionary science. In a sense, her proposal itself is a religious “adaptation” to changes within an international, interdisciplinary academic environment. The second part of the essay explores the rapidly shrinking “niche” of Christian natural theology and briefly summarizes an alternative set of hypotheses from the biocultural sciences of religion.
Can theism be defeated? CSR and the debunking of supernatural agent abductions
De Cruz and De Smedt (2015) have clearly demonstrated the extent to which – and the way in which – evolved cognitive defaults play a role in the emergence of theistic ideas about God and in the for...
What causes COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy? Ignorance and the lack of bliss in the United Kingdom
AbstractUnderstanding vaccine hesitancy has become increasingly important during the COVID-19 pandemic as governments around the globe have been struggling to convince portions of their populations to participate in vaccination protocols. Here we report on a nationally representative survey of the United Kingdom in which data revealed that individuals showed more willingness to take fictitious vaccines (putatively produced by the US government Medicare program and the now defunct healthcare company Theranos) than to take the Sputnik and Sinovac vaccines (developed by the Russian and Chinese governments respectively). The data indicate that the critical factor in vaccine hesitancy among the …
Modeling Marginalization: Emergence, Social Physics, and Social Ethics of Bullying
In this paper, we outline the construction and initial simulation experiment results of the Marginalization model (MARG). We experiment under different group parameters because the theoretical paradigm we follow views bullying as a result of social processes. Our primary research question explores the possibility of bullying emergence as agents select interaction partners in a university setting. Based on the simulated process, our results take indications of the stress of marginalization in a student group as a proxy for emer-gent marginalization. MARG simulates two types of interactions between pairs of students: forced and hang-out interactions. In the latter, students decide whether to …
Using Social Simulations in Interdisciplinary Primary Education: An Expert Appraisal
Many people recognize that teaching basic skills in primary schools (reading, writing, and arithmetic) is no longer sufficient for pupils in the digital age. Therefore, governments now increasingly ask schools to add other skills (oral, digital) and to create connections between subjects (e.g., use mathematics in history lessons). In this study, we explored how social simulations can be used in primary education to meet these new goals. We conducted an expert appraisal (a qualitative Delphi method) with four experts specializing in innovating primary education. We selected three simulations that were freely available on the web, relevant for pupils’ lives and had a limited number of paramet…
Simulating Secularities: Challenges and Opportunities in the Computational Science of (Non)Religion
This article provides scholars of nonreligion and secularism with an introduction to some of the major opportunities and challenges associated with the growing application of computational methods to the phenomena they study. It also illustrates these opportunities and challenges by describing several overlapping research projects and some of the models of (non)religion they have produced. Finally, the article addresses some of the significant philosophical issues surrounding the use of computer modeling and simulation, focusing on the ethical and epistemological concerns that these tools often raise. I invite scholars of nonreligion to consider adding these techniques to their methodologic…
What do religion scholars really want? Scholarly values in the scientific study of religion
Paid Open Access UNIT agreement
Minority Integration in a Western City: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach
This chapter describes the design and construction of an agent-based model we refer to as the ‘Simulation of Extended Time Integration’ (SETI) model. This model was designed with the goal of obtaining a better understanding of the conditions and mechanisms leading to the structural, social, and cultural integration of minorities into large Western societies. SETI is a virtual society with structural (employment, income, education) and demographic (marriage, reproduction, life expectancy) variables typical of Westerns countries. Initialization occurs after a hypothesized immigration event in which a single minority population settles into the majority population, bracketing the first decade …
Religious Exiting and Social Networks: Computer Simulations of Religious/Secular Pluralism
Statistical models attempting to predict who will disaffiliate from religions have typically accounted for less than 15% of the variation in religious affiliations, suggesting that we have only a partial understanding of this vital social process. Using agent-based simulations in three “artificial societies” (one predominantly religious; one predominantly secular; and one in between), we demonstrate that worldview pluralism within one’s neighborhood and family social networks can be a significant predictor of religious (dis)affiliation but in pluralistic societies worldview diversity is less important and, instead, people move toward worldview neutrality. Our results suggest that there may …
Modeling Radicalization and Violent Extremism
Given public anxiety about radicalization and violent extremism, it is not surprising that these topics have grabbed the attention of so many scholars in recent years. However, some have expressed concern over the fact that only a few studies in this relatively new field contain empirical data or systematic data analysis or develop causal models of the mechanisms generating these phenomena. We believe that computational modeling and simulation techniques can make a significant contribution to this scientific literature and eventually provide new tools for improving policy analysis. Here we briefly describe (1) an integrative theory of violent extremism proposed by Kruglanski and colleagues …
Computational Demography of Religion: A Proposal
This paper proposes a new approach to the demography of religion and non-religion that builds on and expands agent-based modeling and social simulation techniques developed in prior work by the research teams led by the authors. Traditional demographic approaches to religion and non-religion understandably focus attention on self-reports of religious identity or affiliation, where longitudinal data is most readily available, and they employ a cohort-component methodology to make projections. We argue that demographic projections of religion and non-religion could be enhanced by using multi-agent artificial intelligence models of societies. After artificial societies with suitably cognitivel…
Computational Science of Religion
This article provides a basic overview of the most common methods of computer modelling and simulation that are currently being used to study religion. It focuses on the use (and illustrates the value) of system dynamics models, agent-based models, including game theory and multi-agent artificial intelligence models, and artificial neural networks. General use case examples are provided, and considerations for future research are discussed. We conclude by encouraging scholars interested in religion and related fields to incorporate techniques from the computational science of religion into their collaborative methodological toolkits.
Evolutionary ethics and adaptive atheism
In Evolution Science and Ethics in the Third Millennium (2018), whose key arguments are summarized in the target article above, Cliquet and Avramov offer an exacting and extensive analysis of the e...
Adapting Cohort-Component Methods to a Microsimulation: A case study
Social scientists generally take United Nations (UN) population projections as the baseline when considering the potential impact of any changes that could affect fertility, mortality or migration, and the UN typically does projections using the cohort-component method (CCM). The CCM technique is computationally simple and familiar to demographers. However, in order to avoid the exponential expansion of complexity as new dimensions of individual difference are added to projections, and to understand the sensitivity of projections to specific conditions, agent-based microsimulations are a better option. CCMs can mask hidden assumptions that are surfaced by the construction of microsimulatio…
Human Simulation and Sustainability : Ontological, Epistemological, and Ethical Reflections
This article begins with a brief outline of recent advances in the application of computer modeling to sustainability research, identifying important gaps in coverage and associated limits in methodological capability, particularly in regard to taking account of the tangled human factors that are often impediments to a sustainable future. It then describes some of the ways in which a new transdisciplinary approach within &ldquo
Computer Modeling in Philosophy of Religion
AbstractHow might philosophy of religion be impacted by developments in computational modeling and social simulation? After briefly describing some of the content and context biases that have shaped traditional philosophy of religion, this article provides examples of computational models that illustrate the explanatory power of conceptually clear and empirically validated causal architectures informed by the bio-cultural sciences. It also outlines some of the material implications of these developments for broader metaphysical and metaethical discussions in philosophy. Computer modeling and simulation can contribute to the reformation of the philosophy of religion in at least three ways: b…
EMERGENCE: WHAT DOES IT MEAN AND HOW IS IT RELEVANT TO COMPUTER ENGINEERING?
Studying close entity encounters of the psychedelic kind: Insights from the cognitive evolutionary science of religion
This article calls for a more robust mutual engagement between the science of psychedelic experiences (SPE) and the cognitive evolutionary science of religion (CESR). Greater collaboration between researchers in these disciplines could open up opportunities for producing new knowledge not only about the human brain and the therapeutic effects of psychedelics, but also about the evolution of our species and our prospects for creatively enjoying our minds and peacefully living in pluralistic groups in a rapidly changing global environment. However, there are at least three major challenges facing the recently renewed field of SPE: 1) articulating adequate theoretical grounding for its researc…
Bearing gods in mind and culture
Abstract Where do supernatural agents come from and why do they stay around? Within the biocultural study of religion one finds a growing tendency to answer these questions by weaving together two conceptual threads, which I will refer to as anthropomorphic promiscuity and sociographic prudery. Although descriptions of these theogonic (god-bearing) mechanisms can differ significantly, the theoretical pattern can be recognized in authors from a variety of disciplines. I illustrate this pattern using four books published in 2010: David Lewis-Williams's Conceiving God: The Cognitive Origin and Evolution of Religion, Pascal Boyer's The Fracture of an Illusion: Science and the Dissolution of Rel…
How to Survive the Anthropocene: Adaptive Atheism and the Evolution of Homo deiparensis
Published version of an article from the journal: Religions. Also available from the publisher: http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rel6020724 Why is it so easy to ignore the ecological and economic crises of the Anthropocene? This article unveils some of the religious biases whose covert operation facilitates the repression or rejection of warnings about the consequences of extreme climate change and excessive capitalist consumption. The evolved defaults that are most relevant for our purposes here have to do with mental credulity toward religious content (beliefs about supernatural agents) and with social congruity in religious contexts (behaviors shaped by supernatural rituals). Learning how to co…
Modeling the Effects of Religious Belief and Affiliation on Prosociality
To what extent do supernatural beliefs, group affiliation, and social interaction produce values and behaviors that benefit others, i.e., 'prosociality'? Addressing this question involves multiple variables interacting within complex social networks that shape and constrain the beliefs and behaviors of individuals. We examine the relationships among some of these factors utilizing data from the World Values Survey to inform the construction of an Agent-Based Model. The latter was able to identify the conditions under which – and the mechanisms by which – the prosociality of simulated agents was increased or decreased within an “artificial society” designed to reflect real world parameters. …
Dimensionality and factorial invariance of religiosity among Christians and the religiously unaffiliated: A cross-cultural analysis based on the International Social Survey Programme
We present a study of the dimensionality and factorial invariance of religiosity for 26 countries with a Christian heritage, based on the 1998 and 2008 rounds of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) Religion survey, using both exploratory and multi-group confirmatory factor analyses. The results of the exploratory factor analysis showed that three factors, common to Christian and religiously unaffiliated respondents, could be extracted from our initially selected items and suggested the testing of four different three-factor models using multi-group confirmatory factor analysis. For the model with the best fit and measurement invariance properties, we labeled the three resulting…
Artificial Social Ethics: Simulating Culture, Conflict, and Cooperation
In recent years advances in computational modeling and social simulation technologies have enabled scientists to identify some of the conditions under which – and the mechanisms by which – conflict and cooperation within and across human cultures are likely to emerge. There are significant ethical concerns surrounding the increased capacity and growing use of such computer tools to guide public policy discussions. The purpose of this paper is to propose and promote an "artificial social ethics" approach to addressing these concerns and illustrate its application in relation to three agent-based models implemented within the Artificial Society Analytics Platform. We conclude with a brief dis…
Ethics, Computer Simulation, and the Future of Humanity
This chapter explores some of the key ethical issues impacting the field of computer modeling and simulation (MS this framework is not a set of ethical guidelines, but a toolkit for guiding ethical decision-making in this interdisciplinary endeavor. In the fourth section, we ask: even if we can model the origin and destiny of humanity, does that mean we should? Finally, in the conclusion we issue an ethical challenge to M&S professionals.
Human Simulation: A Transdisciplinary Approach to Studying Societal Problems
In this chapter, we present a transdisciplinary framework where humanities scholars, social scientists, and engineers can work together to tackle large and complex societal problems. We identify the steps required to construct a human simulation model and the concerns and issues that must be addressed to ensure success. We also present some basic definitions and assumptions inherent to developing this sort of model.
Religion, Empathy, and Cooperation: A Case Study in the Promises and Challenges of Modeling and Simulation
The Cognitive Science of Religion (CSR) is developing a sophisticated naturalistic account of religion, grounded in empirical research. However, there are limitations to establishing an empirical basis for theories about religion’s role in human evolution. Computer modeling and simulation offers a way to address this experimental constraint. A case study in this approach was conducted on a key theory within CSR that recently has come under serious challenge: the Supernatural Punishment Hypothesis, which posits religion facilitated the shift from small, homogeneous social units to large, complex societies. It has been proposed that incorporating empathy as a proximate mechanism for cooperati…
Toxic Theisms? New Strategies for Prebunking Religious Belief-Behaviour Complexes
This article offers a brief epidemiological analysis and description of some of the main cognitive (and coalitional) biases that can facilitate the emergence and enable the maintenance of a broad category of toxic traditions, which will be referred to here as “religious” belief-behaviour complexes (BBCs) or “theisms”. I argue that such BBCs played an “adaptive” role in the Upper Paleolithic and have continued to “work” throughout most of human history by enhancing the species’ capacity for material production and promoting its biological reproduction. However, today the theist credulity and conformity biases that surreptitiously shape these kinds of social assemblages have now becom…
Simulating supernatural seeking
The Interactive Religious Experience Model (IREM) proposed by Van Leeuwen and van Elk is an excellent example of the increasingly popular tendency among scholars in the scientific study of religion...
Modeling Metaphysics: The Rise of Simulation and the Reversal of Platonism
Philosophical reflection on and around Modeling and Simulation (M&S) is often focused on the ethical and epistemological implications of empirical findings or innovative methods within the field. In this paper I highlight some of the metaphysical implications of developments within M&S. I argue that the rise of simulation within and across scientific disciplines is accelerating the reversal of Platonism, whose emphasis on transcendence and reliance on hierarchical, static categories has dominated western philosophy for over two millennia. The success of M&S methodologies opens up new conceptual space for articulating a metaphysics of immanence that may provide a more adequate basis for unde…
The Shaping of the Self: Patterns and Pathways in Bowlby, Kohut, and Bowen
A network agent-based model of ethnocentrism and intergroup cooperation
We present a network agent-based model of ethnocentrism and intergroup cooperation in which agents from two groups (majority and minority) change their communality (feeling of group solidarity), cooperation strategy and social ties, depending on a barrier of “likeness” (affinity). Our purpose was to study the model’s capability for describing how the mechanisms of preexisting markers (or “tags”) that can work as cues for inducing in-group bias, imitation, and reaction to non-cooperating agents, lead to ethnocentrism or intergroup cooperation and influence the formation of the network of mixed ties between agents of different groups. We explored the model’s behavior via four experiments in w…
Agent-based modelling of values: the case of value sensitive design for refugee logistics
We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz's theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value-scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform (interactive website) for decision-makers to understand the trade-offs in pol…
Modelling terror management theory: computer simulations of the impact of mortality salience on religiosity
ABSTRACTThis article outlines the development – and reports on the experimental findings – of two computational models designed to simulate the dynamic systems and behavioural patterns identified and clarified by research on terror management theory. The causal architectures of these models are informed by empirical research on the effects of mortality salience on “religiosity” (and vice versa). They are also informed by research on the way in which perception of personal and environmental hazards activate evolved cognitive and coalitional precautionary systems that can intensify anxiety-alleviating behaviours such as imaginative engagement with supernatural agents postulated within a relig…
The Moral Foundations of Left-Wing Authoritarianism: On the Character, Cohesion, and Clout of Tribal Equalitarian Discourse
Left-wing authoritarianism remains far less understood than right-wing authoritarianism. We contribute to the literature on the former, which typically relies on surveys, using a new social media analytics approach. We use a list of 60 terms to provide an exploratory sketch of the outlines of a political ideology (tribal equalitarianism) with origins in 19th and 20th century social philosophy. We then use analyses of the English Corpus of Google Books (over 8 million books) and scraped unique tweets from Twitter (n = 202,852) to conduct a series of investigations to discern the extent to which this ideology is cohesive amongst the public, reveals signatures of authoritarianism and has been …
Simulating Machines: Modelling, Metaphysics and the Mechanosphere
This article explores some of the ways in which the conceptual apparatus of A Thousand Plateaus, and especially its machinic metaphysics, can be connected to recent developments in computer modelling and social simulation, which provide new tools for thinking that are becoming increasingly popular among philosophers and social scientists. Conversely, the successful deployment of these tools provides warrant for the flat ontology articulated in A Thousand Plateaus and therefore contributes to the ‘reversal of Platonism’ for which Deleuze had called in his earlier works, such as Logic of Sense. The first major section offers a brief exposition of some key concepts in A Thousand Plateaus in or…
A Generative Model of the Mutual Escalation of Anxiety Between Religious Groups
We propose a generative agent-based model of the emergence and escalation of xenophobic anxiety in which individuals from two different religious groups encounter various hazards within an artificial society. The architecture of the model is informed by several empirically validated theories about the role of religion in intergroup conflict. Our results identify some of the conditions and mechanisms that engender the intensification of anxiety within and between religious groups. We define mutually escalating xenophobic anxiety as the increase of the average level of anxiety of the agents in both groups over time. Trace validation techniques show that the most common conditions under which …
Generating Executable Code from High-Level Social or Socio-Ecological Model Descriptions
Agent-Based Modelling has been used for social simulation because of the several benefits it entails. Social models are often constructed by inter-disciplinary teams that include subject-matter experts with no programming skills. These experts are typically involved in the creation of the conceptual model, but not the verification or validation of the simulation model. The Overview, Design concepts, and Details (ODD) protocol has emerged as a way of presenting a model at a high level of abstraction and as an effort towards improving the reproducibility of Agent-Based Models (ABMs) but it is typically written after a model has been completed. This paper reverses the process and provides non-…
Students of Religion Studying Social Conflict Through Simulation and Modelling: An Exploration
Researchers at our university use modelling and simulation (M&S) to study religious conflicts, and we wanted to introduce undergraduate students of religion to this research approach. Hence, we started a three-year educational design research project to empirically study ways to introduce these students to M&S as a viable research method in their discipline. The research project will entail several iterations, which aim to have a feasible and effective design of lessons and a better understanding of the learning processes. The first iteration was exploratory and is reported here. For this exploration, we organised a seminar, which was videotaped for post hoc analysis. The seminar started wi…
Why do the godless prosper? Modeling the cognitive and coalitional mechanisms that promote atheism.
Minding morality : ethical artificial societies for public policy modeling
AbstractPublic policies are designed to have an impact on particular societies, yet policy-oriented computer models and simulations often focus more on articulating the policies to be applied than on realistically rendering the cultural dynamics of the target society. This approach can lead to policy assessments that ignore crucial social contextual factors. For example, by leaving out distinctive moral and normative dimensions of cultural contexts in artificial societies, estimations of downstream policy effectiveness fail to account for dynamics that are fundamental in human life and central to many public policy challenges. In this paper, we supply evidence that incorporating morally sal…
Modeling and Simulation as a Pedagogical and Heuristic Tool for Developing Theories in Cognitive Science: An Example from Ritual Competence Theory
An interdisciplinary team of researchers in the fields of philosophy, religious studies, cognitive science, and computer science aimed to develop a computer model of ritual behaviour, based on McCauley and Lawson’s theory of ritual competence. That endeavour revealed some questions about the internal consistency and significance of the theory that had not previously been noticed or addressed. It also demonstrated how modeling and simulation can serve as valuable pedagogical and heuristic tools for better specifying theories that deal with complex social phenomena.
TRANSFORMING THEOLOGICAL SYMBOLS
. In this essay I explore the need for transforming the Christian theological symbols of the Trinity, Incarnation, and Redemption, which arose in the context of neo-Platonic metaphysics, in light of late modern, especially Peircean, metaphysics and categories. I engage and attempt to complement the proposal by Andrew Robinson and Christopher Southgate (in this issue of Zygon) with insights from the Peircean-inspired philosophical theology of Robert Neville. I argue that their proposal can be strengthened by acknowledging the way in which theological symbols themselves have a transformative (pragmatic) effect as they are “taken” in context and “break” on the Infinite.
Dis-integrating Psychology and Theology
This essay explores the dis-integrative dynamics within the ongoing process of relating the disciplines of psychology and theology, suggesting that such dissolutive forces can play an important and valuable role in the dialogue. Healthy development requires that we sometimes let things fall apart. The main sections of the article point to the potentially generative power of dis-integrating psychology, theology, selves and gods. The conclusion addresses the existential fear and desire that often characterize human attempts to hold it all together, i.e., the tasks of "integration" in all its forms. Integrating the disciplines of psychology and theology is an exciting and important academic ta…
The Artificial Society Analytics Platform
Author's accepted manuscript Social simulation routinely involves the construction of artificial societies and agents within such societies. Currently there is insufficient discussion of best practices regarding the construction process. This chapter introduces the artificial society analytics platform (ASAP) as a way to spark discussion of best practices. ASAP is designed to be an extensible architecture capable of functioning as the core of many different types of inquiries into social dynamics. Here we describe ASAP, focusing on design decisions in several key areas, thereby exposing our assumptions and reasoning to critical scrutiny, hoping for discussion that can advance debate over be…
A value sensitive ABM of the refugee crisis in The Netherlands
We develop an agent based model to characterize the wellbeing of newcomers (i.e. asylum seeking refugees) in the context of asylum logistics using Schwartz’s theory of values. The model produces recommendations for decision-makers with respect to avoiding catastrophic outcomes and maximizing best case outcomes. We conduct analysis to show that while a relatively simple set of conditions is necessary to avoid catastrophic outcomes, these conditions are insufficient to maximize the best case outcomes. Furthermore, the conditions that maximize one best case outcome do so at the expense of another. The result is a platform for decision-makers to understand tradeoffs in policies for government a…