Forecasting Changes in Religiosity and Existential Security with an Agent-Based Model

We employ existing data sets and agent-based modeling to forecast changes in religiosity and existential security among a collective of individuals over time. Existential security reflects the extent of economic, socioeconomic and human development provided by society. Our model includes agents in social networks interacting with one another based on the education level of the agents, the religious practices of the agents, and each agent's existential security within their natural and social environments. The data used to inform the values and relationships among these variables is based on rigorous statistical analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Module (ISSP) and…

Exploratory and Confirmatory Factor Analyses of Religiosity. A Four-Factor Conceptual Model

We describe an exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis of the International Social Survey Programme Religion Cumulation (1991-1998-2008) data set, to identify the factors of individual religiosity and their interrelations in quantitative terms. The exploratory factor analysis was performed using data from the first two waves (1991 and 1998), and led to the identification of four strongly correlated and reliable factors which we labeled Religious formation, Supernatural beliefs, Belief in God, and Religious practice. The confirmatory factor analysis was run using data from 2008, and led to the confirmation of this four-factor structure with very good fit measures. We also ran a set of s…

Post-Supernatural Cultures: There and Back Again

The abandonment of supernatural religious beliefs and rituals seems to occur quite easily in some contexts, but post-supernaturalist cultures require a specific set of conditions that are difficult to produce and sustain on a large scale and thus are historically rare. Despite the worldwide resurgence of supernaturalist religion, some subcultures reliably produce people who deny the existence of supernatural entities. This social phenomenon has evoked competing explanations, many of which enjoy empirical support. We synthesize six of the most influential social-science explanations, demonstrating that they provide complementary perspectives on a complex causal architecture. We incorporate t…

Modeling Radicalization and Violent Extremism

Given public anxiety about radicalization and violent extremism, it is not surprising that these topics have grabbed the attention of so many scholars in recent years. However, some have expressed concern over the fact that only a few studies in this relatively new field contain empirical data or systematic data analysis or develop causal models of the mechanisms generating these phenomena. We believe that computational modeling and simulation techniques can make a significant contribution to this scientific literature and eventually provide new tools for improving policy analysis. Here we briefly describe (1) an integrative theory of violent extremism proposed by Kruglanski and colleagues …

Modeling the Effects of Religious Belief and Affiliation on Prosociality

To what extent do supernatural beliefs, group affiliation, and social interaction produce values and behaviors that benefit others, i.e., 'prosociality'? Addressing this question involves multiple variables interacting within complex social networks that shape and constrain the beliefs and behaviors of individuals. We examine the relationships among some of these factors utilizing data from the World Values Survey to inform the construction of an Agent-Based Model. The latter was able to identify the conditions under which – and the mechanisms by which – the prosociality of simulated agents was increased or decreased within an “artificial society” designed to reflect real world parameters. …

Dimensionality and factorial invariance of religiosity among Christians and the religiously unaffiliated: A cross-cultural analysis based on the International Social Survey Programme

We present a study of the dimensionality and factorial invariance of religiosity for 26 countries with a Christian heritage, based on the 1998 and 2008 rounds of the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) Religion survey, using both exploratory and multi-group confirmatory factor analyses. The results of the exploratory factor analysis showed that three factors, common to Christian and religiously unaffiliated respondents, could be extracted from our initially selected items and suggested the testing of four different three-factor models using multi-group confirmatory factor analysis. For the model with the best fit and measurement invariance properties, we labeled the three resulting…

A network agent-based model of ethnocentrism and intergroup cooperation

We present a network agent-based model of ethnocentrism and intergroup cooperation in which agents from two groups (majority and minority) change their communality (feeling of group solidarity), cooperation strategy and social ties, depending on a barrier of “likeness” (affinity). Our purpose was to study the model’s capability for describing how the mechanisms of preexisting markers (or “tags”) that can work as cues for inducing in-group bias, imitation, and reaction to non-cooperating agents, lead to ethnocentrism or intergroup cooperation and influence the formation of the network of mixed ties between agents of different groups. We explored the model’s behavior via four experiments in w…

Agent-based modelling of values: the case of value sensitive design for refugee logistics

We have used value sensitive design as a method to develop an agent-based model of values in humanitarian logistics for refugees. Schwartz's theory of universal values is implemented in the model in such a way that agents can make value trade-offs, which are operationalized into a measure of refugee wellbeing and a measure of public opinion about how the refugee logistics is being handled. By trying out different ‘value-scenarios’, stakeholders who are responsible for, or involved in refugee logistics can have insights into the effects of various value choices. The model is visualized and made usable as a platform (interactive website) for decision-makers to understand the trade-offs in pol…

Modelling terror management theory: computer simulations of the impact of mortality salience on religiosity

ABSTRACTThis article outlines the development – and reports on the experimental findings – of two computational models designed to simulate the dynamic systems and behavioural patterns identified and clarified by research on terror management theory. The causal architectures of these models are informed by empirical research on the effects of mortality salience on “religiosity” (and vice versa). They are also informed by research on the way in which perception of personal and environmental hazards activate evolved cognitive and coalitional precautionary systems that can intensify anxiety-alleviating behaviours such as imaginative engagement with supernatural agents postulated within a relig…

A Generative Model of the Mutual Escalation of Anxiety Between Religious Groups

We propose a generative agent-based model of the emergence and escalation of xenophobic anxiety in which individuals from two different religious groups encounter various hazards within an artificial society. The architecture of the model is informed by several empirically validated theories about the role of religion in intergroup conflict. Our results identify some of the conditions and mechanisms that engender the intensification of anxiety within and between religious groups. We define mutually escalating xenophobic anxiety as the increase of the average level of anxiety of the agents in both groups over time. Trace validation techniques show that the most common conditions under which …

Why do the godless prosper? Modeling the cognitive and coalitional mechanisms that promote atheism.

A value sensitive ABM of the refugee crisis in The Netherlands

We develop an agent based model to characterize the wellbeing of newcomers (i.e. asylum seeking refugees) in the context of asylum logistics using Schwartz’s theory of values. The model produces recommendations for decision-makers with respect to avoiding catastrophic outcomes and maximizing best case outcomes. We conduct analysis to show that while a relatively simple set of conditions is necessary to avoid catastrophic outcomes, these conditions are insufficient to maximize the best case outcomes. Furthermore, the conditions that maximize one best case outcome do so at the expense of another. The result is a platform for decision-makers to understand tradeoffs in policies for government a…