Migrant Smuggling Across the Mediterranean: An Economic Analysis

In this chapter we provide an analysis of migrant smuggling across the Central Mediterranean Route. The analysis will be carried out through the lenses of economic analysis and of organized crime studies. Our work is based on in-depth interviews conducted with smuggled migrants, and immigration and anti-smuggling operators, with particular focus on land smuggling in West Africa, i.e. from Agadez in Niger into Libya. We will extrapolate the stylized facts of smuggling from the demand side for such ‘service’, i.e. from the migrants, and propose an economic interpretation. In particular our main findings are: i) the distinction between smuggling and trafficking is not clear-cut, as African mig…

Counterfactual Distribution Dynamics across European Regions

This paper proposes a methodology which combines elements of parametric regression analysis with the nonparametric distribution dynamics approach in order to analyse the role of some variables in the convergence of productivity across European regions over the period 1980-2002. We find that the initial productivity crucially accounts in the convergence process across European regions. Differently, employment growth seems not to play a role, while the Structural and Cohesion Funds seem to play a positive role, even though such effect seems to be very low and statistically significant only at the low bound of the range of initial productivity. The structural change of regional economies plays a p…

Does EU cohesion policy work? Theory and evidence

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of European Cohesion Policy in the regions of 12 EU countries in the period 1991–2008, on the basis of a spatial growth model, which allows for the identification of both direct and indirect effects of EU funds on GDP per worker growth. We find that “Objective 1” funds are characterized by strong spatial externalities and a positive and concave effect on the growth of GDP per worker, which reaches a peak at the ratio funds/GDP of approximately 3 percent and becomes non-significant after 4 percent. “Objective 2” and “Cohesion” funds have nonsignificant effects, while all the other funds exert a positive and significant effect, but their size is very lim…

Socio-economic inequalities and organized crime: An empirical analysis

In this chapter we contribute to the recent literature (e.g., Istat, 2010, Acciari et al., 2016, Guell et al., 2017) that provides evidence that inequality is high and social mobility is low in the Italian regions and prov-inces where organized crime is widespread such as those of Southern Italy. We complement this line of work in two respects. First, using a novel pan-el dataset at the regional level for the period 1985-2014 we investigate the relationship between inequality and organized crime at the regional level, exploiting both time and cross-sectional variation. Second, we assess the role of social mobility in organized crime. Our main finding is that higher inequality leads to highe…

Nonlinear Growth in a Long-Run Perspective

This study analyses the pattern of long-run growth of a cross-section of countries, adopting the distribution dynamics approach. The relationship between growth rates and income levels appears first increasing and then decreasing, indicating the existence of different growth regimes.

Organised Crime and the Economy: a Framework for Policy Prescriptions

In this paper we discuss policies to combat organised crime from the perspective of economic analysis. We introduce concepts such as supply and demand for Mafia and the implied notion of equilibrium to build a framework to classify the contexts in which organised crime interferes with the economy. We then use this framework to discuss policy interventions, distinguishing between policies implemented by the State and mobilisation of civil society. We show that using the economic approach helps understand the aspect of persistence of criminal organisations and identify vicious circles of different nature. The broad spectrum of State policies identified includes norms on competition, on the ef…

Extortion, firm's size and the sectoral allocation of capital

Extortion of firms is a typical activity of organized crime such as Mafia. We develop a simple principal-agent model to find the Mafia-optimal extortion as a function of firm’s observable characteristics, specifically firm’s size. We test the predictions of the model on a unique dataset on extortion in Sicily, the Italian region where Mafia is most active. Our empirical findings show that i) extortion moderately increases with firm’s size ii) extortion is regressive, the average extortion rate ranging from approximately 40% of operating profits for small firms to 2% for large firms iii) extortion turns average cost function decreasing, therefore influencing market competition

World Interest Rates, Inequality and Growth: an Empirical Analysis of the Galor-Zeira Model

Following Galor and Zeira (1993), we study the effect of the world interest rate on inequality and growth for the period 1985-2005, characterized by falling world interest rates and cross-country income polarization. We argue that the two phenomena are related on th e basis of the following findings, which are in accordance with the predictions of the Galor and Zeira model: 1) a reduction of the world inter est rates increases inequality in rich countries and decreases inequ ality in poor countries; 2) inequality has a negative (and significant) eff ect on human capital accumulation in rich countries and a positive (b ut mostly not significant) effect in poor countries; 3) human capital po …

Resisting the extortion racket: an empirical analysis

While the contributions on the organized crime and Mafia environments are many, there is a lack of empirical evidence on the firm’s decision to resist to extortion. Our case study is based on Addiopizzo, an NGO that, from 2004, invites firms to refuse requests from the local Mafia and to join a public list of “non-payers”. The research is based on a dataset obtained linking the current administrative archives maintained by the chambers of commerce and the list updated by the NGO. The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to gather sound data on the characteristics of the Addiopizzo joiners; second to model the probability to join Addiopizzo by a two-level logistic regression model. We …

Distribution Dynamics and Nonlinear Growth

World Interest Rates and Inequality: Insight from the Galor - Zeira Model

In this paper, we study the relationship between changes in the world interest rate and within-country inequality during the 1985–2005 period in which the world interest rate sharply declined. In line with the predictions of the seminal model of Galor and Zeira [Income distribution and macroeconomics. Review of Economic Studies 60, 35–52], the analysis suggests that the decrease in the world interest rate is associated with a decrease in inequality in poor countries and an increase in inequality in rich ones.

Nonlinear economic growth: Some theory and cross-country evidence

Abstract This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion.

Shooting down the price: Evidence from Mafia homicides and housing prices

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the homicides by the Camorra, the Neapolitan Mafia, on housing prices in Naples. The study develops on a unique panel data set at the administrative district level for the period 2002–2018 of geo-localized homicides involving innocent victims (denoted as IVH), which are treated as exogenous shocks that negatively affect housing demand. We find that the occurrence of such homicides causes a decrease in housing prices in the range of 2.5–3.8 percentage points. This effect decreases with the distance from an IVH and over time. These results are robust to the utilization of different econometric specifications and to the considerations of possible confou…

School-age vaccination, school openings and Covid-19 diffusion

This article investigates the relationship between school openings and Covid-19 diffusion when school-age vaccination becomes available. The analysis relies on a unique geo-referenced high frequency database on age of vaccination, Covid-19 cases and hospitalization indicators from the Italian region of Sicily. The study focuses on the change of Covid-19 diffusion after school opening in a homogeneous geographical territory (i.e., with the same control measures and surveillance systems, centrally coordinated by the Regional Government). The identification of causal effects derives from a comparison of the change in cases before and after school opening in the school year 2020/21, when vaccin…

Deep and Proximate Determinants of the World Income Distribution

This paper studies the deep and proximate determinants of the evolution of the cross-country distribution of GDP per worker in the period 1960–2008 by a novel method based on an information criterion. We find that countries of our sample follow three distinctive growth regimes identified by two deep determinants, namely life expectancy at birth in 1960 and the share of Catholics in 1965, and that each regime is characterized by non-linearities. Growth regimes appear to be the main cause of the increased inequality and polarization, while technological catch-up, proxied by the initial level of GDP per worker, acts in the opposite direction. Finally, human capital marginally reduces polarizat…

Growth Volatility and the Structure of the Economy

The aim of the chapter is twofold: (i) to propose a methodology to compute the growth rate volatility of an economy and (ii) to investigate the relationship between growth volatility and economic development through the lenses of the structural characteristics of an economy. We study a large cross-section of countries in the period 1970–2009, controlling for the stability of the estimates in two subperiods: 1970:1989 (Period I) and 1990:2009 (Period II). Our main findings are (i) the degree of trade openness has a destabilizing effect, while the degree of financial openness has not a significant effect; (ii) the size of the public sector displays a U-shaped relationship with growth volatili…

On the Determinants of Distribution Dynamics

n this paper we propose a novel approach to identify the impact of growth determinants on the distribution dynamics of productivit y. Our approach integrates counterfactual analysis with the estima tion of stochastic kernels. The counterfactuals are constructed from a semi-parametric growth regression, in which the cross-section heterogeneity in the growth determinants is removed. The methodology also allows us to test for potential distributional effects in the residuals. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed methodology by an application to a cross-section of countries, which highlights the significant impact on inequality and polarization in the world productivity distribution of …

Segmentazione del mercato del lavoro ed acquisizione di capitale umano: un'applicazione delle catene di Markov

Smith, Marshall and Young on division of labour and economic growth

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the theory of division of labour and economic growth proposed by Adam Smith and developed by Alfred Marshall and Allyn Young. In their approach division of labour is the main engine of growth and plays a central role in capital accumulation and technological progress. We suggest that, according to their theory: 1) economic growth is endogenous; 2) it has the nature of a cumulative, pathdependent process; and 3) it can be described as a disequilibrium process, supported by competitive forces. We argue that these aspects make the contributions of Smith, Marshall and Young still insightful for the development of growth theory, even in the light of the mo…

Introduction

This collection of essays is a tribute to Neri Salvadori, the man and scholar, teacher and friend, whom the scientific community owes important works in the tradition of Piero Sraffa’s revival of the classical economists’ approach to the problems of value, income distribution, capital accumulation, technical progress, scarce natural resources, economic development and growth. The essays in this book have all been freshly written and contain original work with novel ideas in the areas mentioned. In this introduction we first summarize briefly Neri Salvadori’s academic career, his work and his intellectual and organisational activities and then provide a short overview of the essays collected…

Job contact networks, inequality and aggregate output

In this paper we study the effects of social networks on wage inequality and aggregate production. In particular, we consider a simplified version of the model by Calvo'-Armengol and Jackson (2003), with good and bad jobs and skilled and unskilled workers. Our findings are: i) increasing the number of social links increases aggregate output and may reduce inequality; ii) given a number of social connections, output increases if the average distance among worker decreases; iii) a more mixed and well-integrated society, that is a society in which heterogeneous workers share social links, produces more output and less inequality than a society in which some workers are isolated, when productiv…

A Note on Symmetry in Job Contact Networks

Since the seminal work of Granovetter (1995), the sociological literature highlighted the importance of social relationships, like friends, relatives and acquaintances, as sources of information on jobs in labor markets. Such importance is also confirmed by a number of empirical studies.3 More recently, economists have devoted considerable attention to this topic,4 so that the study of individual and aggregate economic outcomes produced by the presence of social relationships in labor markets is becoming a fruitful research area in economics.

Smithian Growth and Complexity

In this paper we argue that Adam Smith’s theory of division and labor and economic growth, in particular through the developments of Alfred Marshall, Allyn Young and Nicholas Kaldor, has characteristics that allow to classify it in the realm of complexity economics. We support this claim by a historical reconstruction of the Smithian growth theory highlighting the characteristics that we show also characterize complex systems. We compare this perspective with the one developed by the traditional economic approach, rooted in general equilibrium, and describe a simple alternative model

Transitions out of unemployment: The role of social networks' topology and firms' recruitment strategies

In this paper we study the effects of job contact networks on out-of-unemployment transitions. We find that social connections produce sizable increases in upward mobility from unemployment and, caeteris paribus, symmetric network topologies perform better than asymmetric ones. Furthermore, in scale-free networks the probability of transitions out of unemployment increases in the exponent of the power-law degree distribution, but its value is much lower than the one attainable in Poisson random networks. In addition, and most interestingly, these results strongly depends on the different hypotheses on the firms' recruitment strategy.

Economic Structure and Vulnerability to Organised Crime: Evidence from Sicily

The economic analysis of organised crime suggests that some economic activities are particularly vulnerable to penetration by criminal organisations. This paper provides an analysis of the structure of the Sicilian economy and shows that, when compared with other Italian regions, it is characterised by a disproportionate presence of such activities. In particular, the economy of Sicily appears characterised by: (i) a large dimension of traditional sectors, such as the Construction sector, which also has a strong territorial specificity; (ii) a large presence of small firms; (iii) a low level of technology; (iii) a large public sector. The joint presence of these features creates fertile soi…

Productivity Dynamics across European Regions: the Impact of Structural and Cohesion Funds

This paper analyzes the impact of the European Union regional policy of the three programming periods 1975-1988, 1989-1993 and 1994-1999 on the dynamics of productivity of European regions. On average, funding had a positive, but concave, effect on productivity growth. In particular, a share of funds on GVA of 10% GVA is estimated to raise the regional growth rate of about 0.9% per year. However, by separately considering the three programming periods and the composition of the funds according to the objectives defined by the EU, we find that: i) only the funds allocated in the second and third programming periods, when they remarkably increased, had a significant impact; and ii) only Objective…

Productivity Polarization and Sectoral Dynamics in European Regions

Abstract We show that the distribution dynamics of productivity in European regions displays polarization with a nonlinear growth path. We investigate the factors explaining this behavior focusing in particular on sectoral composition. The β -convegence analysis reveals that initial shares of Manufacturing and Other Market Services have a nonlinear impact on growth, while spatial effects are not statistically significant. By decomposing the dynamics of aggregate productivity in terms of sectoral dynamics, we show that productivity in Manufacturing, Non Market Services, and Other Market Services does not converge, for the complex interaction of technological spillovers and specialization eff…

Taking care of everyone’s business: interpreting Sicilian Mafia embedment through spatial network analysis

Mafia-type organisations often have a strong geographical and cultural entrenchment in the territory they belong. However, their analysis as a spatially networked social structure is still missing. A combined socio-spatial network analysis is presented here, through the demise of a large police operation called Operazione Perseo in 2008. This approach is developed in two ways. At first, a visual representation of the social network of this large group of mafiosi embedded in a geographical space is presented. Three main salient territorial features of the network are thus highlighted. A high density of links in some neighbourhoods, as well as connections across different Mandamenti, the terr…

Appropriate technology in a Solovian nonlinear growth model

We propose a Solovian growth model with a convex-concave production function and international technological spillovers. We test the empirical implications of the model, analysing the effects of the productivity slowdown that followed the oil shocks of the 1970s. We argue that this slowdown, altering the world income distribution, affected the pattern of international technological spillovers, taking the poorest countries further away from the technological leaders, and therefore unable to exploit their technologies. The result is the emergence of a poverty trap for low-income countries.

An empirical analysis of growth volatility: A Markov chain approach

This paper studies the determinants of growth rate volatility, focusing on the effect of level of GDP, structural change and the size of economy. First we provide a graphical analysis based on nonparametric techniques, then a quantitative analysis which follows the distribution dynamics approach. Growth volatility appears to (i) decrease with per capita GDP, (ii) increase with the share of the agricultural sector on GDP and, (iii) decrease with the size of the economy, measured by a combination of total GDP and trade openness. However, we show that the explanatory power of per capita GDP tends to vanish when we control for the size of the economy. © 2005 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Struttura economica e vulnerabilità al crimine organizzato in Sicilia

In questo lavoro viene analizzata la relazione tra la struttura dell’economia della Sicilia e la diffusione della criminalità organizzata, allo scopo di offrire una nuova chiave di lettura di alcuni dati relativi allo sviluppo economico recente della Sicilia. I risultati della analisi empirica mostrano che la struttura dell’economia siciliana è tale da rendere la regione particolarmente vulnerabile al controllo da parte della criminalità, essendo caratterizzata contemporaneamente da: i) una presenza relativamente elevata di settori tradizionali; e di settori la cui attività è fortemente legata al territorio come le costruzioni; ii) una dimensione di impresa particolarmente ridotta e, infine…

ON HIGH-SKILL AND LOW-SKILL EQUILIBRIA: A MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH

In this paper we propose to study the dynamics of human capital accumulation by means of a Markov chain. We identify the conditions for the emergence of ergodic and nonergodic dynamics, and relate them to various characteristics of an economic system. The model may generate high-skill and low-skill equilibria as well as intermediate situations. Policy implications are also discussed.

Investment–productivity dynamics and distribution dynamics in a multisector economy: some theory and an application to Italian regions

Abstract In this paper, we study the investment–productivity dynamics in the Framework Space, presented by Bohm and Punzo [Cycles, Growth and Structural Change, Routledge, London (2001) 47], as the distribution dynamics of the production sectors of an economy. We apply such theoretical framework to data from Italian regions to identify differences in sectoral behaviors both within and across regions. Our main findings are: sectors within a region generally follow different regime dynamics; Southern Italian regions are generally characterized by higher degrees of heterogeneity in sectoral growth behaviors and of regime instability. Also, we find support to the hypothesis of a positive relati…

Division of Labour and Economic Growth: Paul Romer's Contribution in an Historical Perspective

Growth Volatility Indices

We study the determinants of growth rate volatility in a multisector economy where sectors are heterogeneous in their individual volatility. We propose a model where aggregate volatility is explained by structural change and the size of the economy. We present a first attempt to test these predictions measuring growth volatility by indices based on Markov transition matrices. Growth volatility appears to (i) decrease with total GDP and (ii) increase with the share of the agricultural sector on GDP, although some nonlinearities appear. Trade openness, which we relate to the size of the economy, also plays a role. In accordance with our model, the explanatory power of per capita GDP, a releva…