0000000000148814

AUTHOR

João Tovar Jalles

showing 11 related works from this author

What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?

2015

We use data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1980–2005 to investigate the main drivers of the likelihood of structural reforms. We find that: (i) external debt crises are the main trigger of financial and banking reforms; (ii) inflation and banking crises are the key drivers of external capital account reforms; (iii) banking crises also hasten financial reforms; and (iv) economic recessions play an important role in promoting the necessary consensus for financial, capital, banking and trade reforms, especially in the group of OECD-countries. Additionally, we also observe that the degree of globalisation is relevant for financial reforms, in particular in the group of non-OECD cou…

MacroeconomicsG28Economics and EconometricEconomics and EconometricsCrisis episodemedia_common.quotation_subjectCrisis episodesRecessionPolitical setupSocial SciencesFinancial systemGlobalisationRecessionPoliticsGlobalization0502 economics and business050602 political science & public administrationEconomics050207 economicsStructural reformmedia_commonP1105 social sciences1. No povertyRecessionsSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaP16External debtCapital account0506 political scienceStructural reforms8. Economic growthPolitical Science and International Relations
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Do debt crises boost financial reforms?

2014

"Published online: 15 Aug. 2014"

G28Economics and EconometricsParis Clubmedia_common.quotation_subjectN20Social SciencesDeveloping countryInstitutional qualityRecessionIMF stabilization programmesDebt0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economicsSovereign debtmedia_commonFinanceFinancial reforms050208 financeP11business.industry05 social sciencesRecessionsCiências Sociais::Economia e Gestão1. No povertyInstitutional economicsSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaP16P34financial reforms debt crises recessions IMF stabilization programmes Paris Club institutional qualityDebt crises8. Economic growth:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]Internal debtbusinessInstitutional qualityApplied Economics Letters
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Heterogeneous gains from countercyclical fiscal policy: new evidence from international industry-level data

2021

Abstract Empirical evidence to date suggests a positive relationship between fiscal policy countercyclicality and growth. But do all industries gain equally from countercyclical fiscal policy? What are the channels through which countercyclical fiscal policy affects industry-level growth? We answer these questions by applying a difference-in-difference approach to an unbalanced panel of 22 manufacturing industries for 55 countries—including both advanced and developing economies—during the period 1970–2014. Among the various industry characteristics guided by different theoretical channels, we find that the credit constraints channel identifies the best transmission mechanism through which …

Economics and EconometricsLevel dataEconomicsMonetary economicsFiscal policyOxford Economic Papers
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Financial stress and sovereign debt composition

2015

"Published online: 19 Oct 2015"

Economics and EconometricsRecourse debtDebt-to-GDP ratioSocial SciencesFinancial systemFinancial stress0502 economics and businessEconomicsDebt ratio050207 economicsDebt levels and flowsMarketability050208 financeHoldersH12G1505 social sciencesFinancial streSettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaholderExternal debtSovereign debt compositionCurrencyDebt service ratio8. Economic growthH63MaturityInternal debtG01Senior debtApplied Economics Letters
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China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates

2017

The recent “rebalancing” of China’s economy has raised concerns that the country’s growth slowdown may have large global implications. This note looks at this issue by analyzing the effects of China’s growth shocks on the output of other countries and how these effects have changed over time. Estimates indicate that the magnitude of China’s spillovers has steadily increased during the last two decades, but remains yet limited. Spillovers are larger in neighboring (Asian) countries and in emerging markets and developing economies. Trade linkages remain main transmission channels. In addition, a negative shock in China has (marginal) positive effects for net commodity importers wh…

ChinaEconomics and Econometrics050208 financeTime-varying estimateEconomic sectormedia_common.quotation_subject05 social sciencesCommodityDeveloping countryInternational economicsRecessionSpilloverShock (economics)Spillover effect0502 economics and businessEconomics050207 economicsEmerging marketsChinamedia_commonOpen Economies Review
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Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability

2016

Using data for a large panel of countries, this paper investigates the role played by income inequality and fiscal stimuli episodes in shaping the likelihood of political stability. By means of Tobit estimations, we show that a rise in inequality increases the probability of government crises. However, such adverse distributional effect is reduced when expansionary or increasingly expansionary fiscal stimuli episodes or successful fiscal stimuli programs are put in place.

MacroeconomicsEconomics and EconometricsInequalitymedia_common.quotation_subjecthealth care facilities manpower and servicesPolitical environmentStability (learning theory)Social SciencesInstitutional qualityPoliticsExpansionary policieEconomic inequalityIncome distributionAccounting0502 economics and business050602 political science & public administrationEconomicsTobit model050207 economicshealth care economics and organizationsmedia_commonTobit regressionGovernment05 social sciencesCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoSettore SECS-P/02 Politica Economicasocial sciences0506 political scienceFiscal stimuliExpansionary policies PoliticalExpansionary policiesIncome distribution:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]FinancePublic finance
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Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment

2014

Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978-2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6-0.7 (1.8-2.2) percentage points.

Economics and EconometricsLabour economicsFull employmentYouth and long-term unemploymentmedia_common.quotation_subject1. No povertySettore SECS-P/02 Politica EconomicaFlexibility IndexLabour market flexibilitySocial SciencesPercentage pointUnemployment8. Economic growthUnemploymentFiscal adjustmentEconomicsFiscal adjustmentsFinancemedia_commonLabour market flexibility
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The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Human Development

2017

We find that fiscal austerity is associated with a reduction of human development standards, with the negative effect being particularly severe in the case of spending-driven consolidation episodes. Fiscal adjustments are especially damaging for human development in developing countries (namely, African and Latin American countries). Additionally, the empirical evidence shows that (i) government stability is a crucial institutional determinant of human development, and (ii) while investment in physical capital can boost human development, government consumption and inflation are detrimental to it. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Latin AmericansRisk rating05 social sciencesGeography Planning and Development1. No povertyDeveloping countryDevelopmenthumanitiesHuman development (humanity)03 medical and health sciencesPolitics0302 clinical medicinePhysical capitalAusterity0502 economics and business8. Economic growthDevelopment economicsEconomics030212 general & internal medicine050207 economicsEmpirical evidenceJournal of International Development
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Labor and product market reforms and external Imbalances: Evidence from advanced economies

2021

We explore the impact of major labor and product market reforms on current account dynamics using a new “narrative” database of major changes in employment protection for regular workers and product market regulation for non-manufacturing industries covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Our main finding is that product market deregulation is associated with a weakening of the current account, while labor market deregulation is associated with an improvement. These effects are transitory and driven by both saving and investment responses. Labor and product market reforms both have a more positive impact on the current account balance when implemented under weak macroecon…

Economics and EconometricsProduct marketMonetary economicsCurrent accountInvestment (macroeconomics)Product marketExternal imbalancesCurrent accountLabor marketDeregulationStructural reformsEconomicsDynamic stochastic general equilibriumGeneral Earth and Planetary SciencesDeveloped countryFinanceGeneral Environmental ScienceMarket deregulation
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Job protection deregulation in good and bad times

2019

Abstract This paper explores the short-term employment effect of deregulating job protection for regular workers and how it varies with prevailing business cycle conditions. We apply the local projection method to a newly constructed dataset of major regular job protection reforms covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. The analysis relies on country-sector-level data, using as identifying assumption the fact that stringent dismissal regulations are more binding in sectors that are characterized by a higher ‘natural’ propensity to make regular adjustments to the workforce. We find that the response of sectoral employment to deregulation depends crucially on the state of t…

Economics and EconometricsLabour economics050208 financeEconomic expansionmedia_common.quotation_subject05 social sciencesRecessionDeregulationDismissal0502 economics and businessWorkforceBusiness cycleEconomics050207 economicshealth care economics and organizationsmedia_commonOxford Economic Papers
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Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms

2015

We use data for a panel of 17 countries over the period 1980-2005 to investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on the likelihood of financial reforms. We show that fiscal adjustments do not boost the implementation of financial reforms. However, tax-driven fiscal consolidation programs raise the likelihood of banking sector reforms. Moreover, we find that: (i) an increase in the degree of trade openness makes countries less likely to implement financial reforms; (ii) an increase in the interest rate spreads accelerates the path of financial reforms, especially, external capital account reforms; and (iii) an improvement in the quality of political institutions strongly enhances the prob…

macroeconomic determinantsEconomics and Econometricsrare events logit modelmedia_common.quotation_subjectfinancial reformsLogitSocial SciencesProbitRecessionfiscal consolidationConsolidation (business)0502 economics and businessOpenness to experienceEconomicsinstitutional quality050207 economicsmedia_commonFinance050208 financeeconomic factorsbusiness.industry05 social sciences1. No povertyCiências Sociais::Economia e GestãoFinancial conditionsmacroeconomic determinantfinancial reformAusterityFiscal consolidationrecessions8. Economic growth:Economia e Gestão [Ciências Sociais]businessFinancial sector
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