0000000000148814
AUTHOR
João Tovar Jalles
What determines the likelihood of structural reforms?
We use data for a panel of 60 countries over the period 1980–2005 to investigate the main drivers of the likelihood of structural reforms. We find that: (i) external debt crises are the main trigger of financial and banking reforms; (ii) inflation and banking crises are the key drivers of external capital account reforms; (iii) banking crises also hasten financial reforms; and (iv) economic recessions play an important role in promoting the necessary consensus for financial, capital, banking and trade reforms, especially in the group of OECD-countries. Additionally, we also observe that the degree of globalisation is relevant for financial reforms, in particular in the group of non-OECD cou…
Do debt crises boost financial reforms?
"Published online: 15 Aug. 2014"
Heterogeneous gains from countercyclical fiscal policy: new evidence from international industry-level data
Abstract Empirical evidence to date suggests a positive relationship between fiscal policy countercyclicality and growth. But do all industries gain equally from countercyclical fiscal policy? What are the channels through which countercyclical fiscal policy affects industry-level growth? We answer these questions by applying a difference-in-difference approach to an unbalanced panel of 22 manufacturing industries for 55 countries—including both advanced and developing economies—during the period 1970–2014. Among the various industry characteristics guided by different theoretical channels, we find that the credit constraints channel identifies the best transmission mechanism through which …
Financial stress and sovereign debt composition
"Published online: 19 Oct 2015"
China Spillovers: New Evidence from Time-Varying Estimates
The recent ârebalancingâ of Chinaâs economy has raised concerns that the countryâs growth slowdown may have large global implications. This note looks at this issue by analyzing the effects of Chinaâs growth shocks on the output of other countries and how these effects have changed over time. Estimates indicate that the magnitude of Chinaâs spillovers has steadily increased during the last two decades, but remains yet limited. Spillovers are larger in neighboring (Asian) countries and in emerging markets and developing economies. Trade linkages remain main transmission channels. In addition, a negative shock in China has (marginal) positive effects for net commodity importers wh…
Income inequality, fiscal stimuli and political (in)stability
Using data for a large panel of countries, this paper investigates the role played by income inequality and fiscal stimuli episodes in shaping the likelihood of political stability. By means of Tobit estimations, we show that a rise in inequality increases the probability of government crises. However, such adverse distributional effect is reduced when expansionary or increasingly expansionary fiscal stimuli episodes or successful fiscal stimuli programs are put in place.
Fiscal adjustments, labour market flexibility and unemployment
Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978-2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6-0.7 (1.8-2.2) percentage points.
The Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Human Development
We find that fiscal austerity is associated with a reduction of human development standards, with the negative effect being particularly severe in the case of spending-driven consolidation episodes. Fiscal adjustments are especially damaging for human development in developing countries (namely, African and Latin American countries). Additionally, the empirical evidence shows that (i) government stability is a crucial institutional determinant of human development, and (ii) while investment in physical capital can boost human development, government consumption and inflation are detrimental to it. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Labor and product market reforms and external Imbalances: Evidence from advanced economies
We explore the impact of major labor and product market reforms on current account dynamics using a new “narrative” database of major changes in employment protection for regular workers and product market regulation for non-manufacturing industries covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. Our main finding is that product market deregulation is associated with a weakening of the current account, while labor market deregulation is associated with an improvement. These effects are transitory and driven by both saving and investment responses. Labor and product market reforms both have a more positive impact on the current account balance when implemented under weak macroecon…
Job protection deregulation in good and bad times
Abstract This paper explores the short-term employment effect of deregulating job protection for regular workers and how it varies with prevailing business cycle conditions. We apply the local projection method to a newly constructed dataset of major regular job protection reforms covering 26 advanced economies over the past four decades. The analysis relies on country-sector-level data, using as identifying assumption the fact that stringent dismissal regulations are more binding in sectors that are characterized by a higher ‘natural’ propensity to make regular adjustments to the workforce. We find that the response of sectoral employment to deregulation depends crucially on the state of t…
Fiscal consolidation and financial reforms
We use data for a panel of 17 countries over the period 1980-2005 to investigate the impact of fiscal consolidation on the likelihood of financial reforms. We show that fiscal adjustments do not boost the implementation of financial reforms. However, tax-driven fiscal consolidation programs raise the likelihood of banking sector reforms. Moreover, we find that: (i) an increase in the degree of trade openness makes countries less likely to implement financial reforms; (ii) an increase in the interest rate spreads accelerates the path of financial reforms, especially, external capital account reforms; and (iii) an improvement in the quality of political institutions strongly enhances the prob…