Using SMAA-2 method with dependent uncertainties for strategic forest planning

Abstract Uncertainty included in forest variables is normally ignored in forest management planning. When the uncertainty is accounted for, it is typically assumed to be independently distributed for the criteria measurements of different alternatives. In forest management planning, the factors introducing the uncertainty can be classified into three main sources: the errors in the basic forestry data, the uncertainty of the (relative) future prices of timber, and the uncertainty in predicting the forest development. Due to the nature of these error sources, most of the involved uncertainties can be assumed to be positively correlated across the alternative management plans and/or criteria.…