Impact of climate change on the timing of strawberry phenological processes in the Baltic States

Climate change has been shown to impact aspects of agriculture and phenology. This study aims to quantify changes in the timing of garden strawberry blooms and harvests in the Baltic States using Regional Climate Models (RCMs). First, parameters for a strawberry phenology model based on the growing degree day (GDD) methodology were determined. Growing degree days were calculated using a modified sine wave method that estimates the diurnal temperature cycle from the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Model parameters include the base temperature and the required cumulative GDD sum, estimated from phenological and meteorological observations in Latvia for the years 2010–2013 via iterative…

Modeling Transit Flow Through Port Gates and Connecting Channel in Baltic Sea—Liepaja Port—Liepaja Lake System

This study investigates a water transport features by extending Copernicus Marine Environment Service (CMEMS) to the Liepaja coast-port-channel-lake system with a two-way nested model. The Liepaja lake and Liepaja port are connected by Trade channel. The Liepaja port has three gates—the openings in wave breakers connecting the port aquatory with the Baltic sea. Each of gates has a corresponding dredged channel for securing the navigation. A hydrodynamic model is set up to study the flow and water level in this system. The area of the port gates, port and Trade channel are resolved by 33 m grid. The model results are verified against currents and sea level observations inside/outside port, T…

Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Results for Energy Applications in Latvia

Abstract Wind power forecasting greatly relies on wind speed forecasts. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a reliable source of meteorological forecasts and they can also be used in wind resource assessment. In this work we carry out the verification of wind speed results from the NWP model Weather Research and Forecast (WRF), grid resolution - 3 km. Results from 172 model runs in May and November 2013 are compared with meteorological observations in 24 stations in Latvia. The model usually predicts wind speed values that are larger than the observed and the diurnal cycle has a large impact on verification results. Verification results obtained by interpolating model results betw…

Climate indices for the Baltic states from principal component analysis

Abstract. We used principal component analysis (PCA) to derive climate indices that describe the main spatial features of the climate in the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania). Monthly mean temperature and total precipitation values derived from the ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate models (RCMs) were used. Principal components were derived for the years 1961–1990. The first three components describe 92 % of the variance in the initial data and were chosen as climate indices in further analysis. Spatial patterns of these indices and their correlation with the initial variables were analyzed, and it was detected (based on correlation coefficient between principal compon…

Statistical downscaling method of regional climate model results for hydrological modelling

PCA analysis of wind direction climate in the baltic states

Wind direction is one of the fundamental parameters of weather. In this study we investigate the wind direction climate 10 m above surface level in the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania). The analysis of wind direction over larger regions is usually hindered by the fact that wind direction is a circular variable, which means that averaged values are meaningless. Here we show how Principal Component Analysis (PCA) can be applied to give a large scale overview of typical wind direction patterns in the region. Here we apply PCA to both observational and reanalysis data. The most significant wind direction patterns are detected in both synoptic scale and mesoscale, and we attempt to lin…

Seasonal variability of radiation tide in Gulf of Riga

Diurnal oscillations of water level in Gulf of Riga are considered. It was found that there is distinct daily pattern of diurnal oscillations in certain seasons. The role of sea breeze, gravitational tides and atmospheric pressure gradient are analysed. The interference of the first two effects provide the dominant role in diurnal oscillations. The effect of gravitational tides is described both with sole tidal forcing and also in real case with atmospheric forcing and stratification. The yearly variation of the declination of the Sun and stratification leads to seasonal intensification of gravitational tides in Gulf of Riga. Correlation between gravitational tide of the Sun with its radiat…