Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?

Abstract Background & Aims Advances in direct‐acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked‐to‐care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. Methods Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real‐life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage‐to‐care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals. Results Under the 40% linked‐to‐care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat w…