Use of a logistic model to assess spoilage by Byssochlamys fulva in clarified apple juice

Abstract The percentage P (%) of spoiled bottles (n = 40) of clarified apple juice due to Byssochlamys fulva, was modeled by using a logistic model: P = P max 1 + exp ( k ( τ − t ) ) where Pmax (%) the maximum percentage of spoiled bottles, k (h− 1) a slope parameter and τ (h) the time for P = Pmax/2. Bottles of pasteurized apple juice were inoculated with B. fulva IOC 4518 ascospores for low and high initial loads, 4.8 ± 2.3 ascospores/100 mL and 19.3 ± 4.6 ascospores/100 mL respectively and incubated at 21 °C and 30 °C. Pmax was not significantly different from 100% except for a low initial load at 21 °C. Model parameters were estimated with a good accuracy, RMSE in the range 3.89–7.50. T…