Transport policy and climate change: How to decide when experts disagree

Abstract Transport is the sector with the fastest growth of greenhouse gases emissions in many countries. Accumulation of these emissions may cause uncertain and irreversible adverse climate change impacts. In this context, we use the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to face the question on how to select the best transport policy if the experts have different opinions and beliefs on the occurrence of these impacts. Thus, both the treatment of uncertainty and dissent are examined for the ranking of transport policies. The opinions of experts have been investigated by a means of a survey questionnaire. A sensitivity analysis of the experts’ weights and the criteria’ weights confirms the robus…

Virtual water trade in a general equilibrium analysis

Un'analisi empirica degli effetti dell'efficienza della pubblica amministrazione sullo sviluppo delle reti di impresa in Italia.

Can stability of foreign aid agreement reduce global income inequality?

Abstract Global initiatives on debt relief call for increasing foreign aid assistance to alleviate income inequality. But the potential gains from foreign aid policy coordination may be limited by the willing participation of diverse and self-interested donor countries. If stability of the foreign aid agreement does not occur, then aid effectiveness fails. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of the stability of foreign aid agreement on income redistribution amongst countries. The findings show that stability has positive effects on income mobility from the rich to the poorest countries reducing global income inequality.

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions into a Computable General Equilibrium Model a Coupling Experiment

In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potenti…

Nonlinearities in the Becker-Tomes-Solon model

The aim of this paper is to explore nonlinearities in the relationship between parents and children earnings. We rst discuss a simple extension of the Becker-Tomes-Solon model accounting for nonlinearity. We then test the linearity of intergenerational transmission employing a set of 141 intergenerational mobility tables in 35 di erent countries at di erent time periods, and nd that linearity is rejected in 89 tables. We nally explore the correlation between the \strength of concavity" and income inequality. Our ndings suggest that more unequal societies tend to have a more concave intergenerational transmission process.

A global perspective on effectiveness of aid for trade

Recent global initiatives on debt relief and development assistance call for increasing aid for trade to the poorest countries. The paper applies a multi-country computable general equilibrium model to measure the effectiveness of alternative aid for trade categories. The findings show that aid for trade policies expand trade and alleviate international income inequalities in the recipient countries, that will benefit mainly from aid for trade adjustment and technical assistance.

KLUM@GTAP: SPATIALLY EXPLICIT, BIOPHYSICAL LAND USE IN A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

An Analytic Hierarchy Process for The Evaluation of Transport Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts

Le infiltrazioni mafiose nel settore del gaming italiano: un’analisi empirica

Il gioco d’azzardo rappresenta un fenomeno in continuo mutamento, di crescente complessità e di non facile controllo, con impatti talvolta imprevedibili sull’individuo, sull’azienda, sull’economia di una nazione, sulla criminalità organizzata, sull’intera collettività. In particolare, gli autori riportano nel contributo delle considerazioni sul metodo attraverso il quale la mafia effettua le sue infiltrazioni nel settore del gioco d'azzardo. Nel contributo si evidenzia inoltrela relazione quantitativa esistente tra l’esercizio abusivo del gioco e delle scommesse e il fenomeno delle associazioni di tipo mafioso. Infine, verranno tratte alcune considerazioni sintetiche sui deficit istituziona…

An Assessment of Carousel Value-Added Tax Fraud in The European Carbon Market

AbstractThe literature on the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) is by now very rich. Much is known about the efficiency, the effectiveness, and the environmental and distributional impacts of the EU ETS. Less, however, is known about the carousel value-added-tax (VAT) fraud phenomena in the European carbon market. This article evaluates the welfare effects of carousel VAT fraud in the EU ETS using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. According to our findings, if VAT fraud occurs in the EU ETS, the effects on welfare for the EU Member States are negative, with welfare loss significantly higher than the VAT fraud value. This article also discusses the reverse charge…

An Analytic Hierachy Process for Ranking Operating Costs of Low Cost and Full Service Airlines

This paper develops an application of the analytic hierarchy process to rank the operating cost components of full service and low cost airlines. It takes into account the financial balance sheets and answers to a questionnaire submitted to the managers of selected airlines. The results suggest that the analytic hierarchy process can be appropriately used to obtain the ranking of the costs taking into account different views: financial, management and operative. Rental, office equipment and other supplies costs show the highest importance in the cost ranking, both for full services and low cost airlines. The robustness of the results is tested by Monte Carlo analysis.

Climate change impacts on tourism: a general equilibrium model.

Socioeconomic effects and the role of public spending decomposition on income mobility: a moderated regression model

The aim of this paper is to investigate, empirically, what components of public spending imply a decreasing effect on income mobility, and what components create income opportunities, also discussing the role of government effectiveness. The role of the components of government expenditure is analysed in the association between intergenerational income mobility and socioeconomic characteristics, which are relevant for the life chances of children. Using the Global Database on Intergenerational Mobility, containing estimates of intergenerational income mobility at country level, and applying the moderated regression model, the results show strikingly consistent patterns. A country with more …

Liberalizing Immigration Policies for the UK Agricultural Sector in the Post-Brexit Era

We investigate the effects of immigration policies on the UK agricultural sector under the new post-Brexit deal through a computable general equilibrium framework. We consider bilateral flows of migrants and frictions as part of capital and labor mobility to compare the point-based immigration system to open immigration policies in terms of their impacts on agriculture. We also integrate the GTAP-GMig2 immigration model with the GTAP-AGR agriculture model. Our findings show that liberal immigration policies have positive effects on production, farmers’ income, and overall welfare. The benefits increase if these policies are combined with reduced bureaucracy and lower behind-the-border costs…

Learning, climate change and international environmental agreements

The Economic Impact of Water Taxes: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis with an International Data Set

Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument to improve the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonetheless af…

Stability of foreign aid agreement: a general equilibrium experimental analysis

Nonlinearity in intergenerational income transmission: A cross-country analysis

Abstract The aim of this paper is to explore nonlinearity in intergenerational income transmission. We use a set of occupational tables in different countries to test nonlinearity. We also empirically address how policy variables can affect nonlinearity. Our findings suggest that concavity is supported in those societies with less credit constraints, but with more poverty and income inequality; education has an increasing effect on convexity.

THE CAROUSEL VALUE-ADDED TAX FRAUD IN THE EUROPEAN EMISSION TRADING SYSTEM

n this article, we analyse the effects of the carousel value-added tax fraud in the European carbon market and the legislative measures that the EU Member States could adopt to deal with this phenomena. We use a computable general equilibrium model, called GTAP-E and the version 6 of the GTAP database to evaluate the economy-wide and terms of trade effects. The policy test has been designed for five European countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and the United Kingdom. According to our findings, the legislative measures aimed to remove the VAT fraud in the European Emission Trading System will have positive effects in terms of GDP and welfare in the selected EU Member Stat…

The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “marke…

La pianificazione territoriale strategica fra la pianificazione ordinaria, la programmazione complessa e concertata e la sostenibilità ambientale e socio-economica: Elementi di metodo, procedure e alcuni scenari di valutazione in Sicilia

La memoria che si presenta, di contenuto e finalità interdisciplinari, mette in evidenza la necessità di una riorganizzazione multilivello del sistema della pianificazione regionale e costituisce un lavoro in progress di cui si presentano alcune prime impostazioni. Occorrono competenze interdisciplinari con riferimento alle problematiche degli indicatori territoriali, ambientali e socio-economici per la costruzione del processo di conoscenza, interpretazione, valutazione delle condizioni esistenti per la costruzione degli scenari di sviluppo locale sostenibile e la loro verifica di compatibilità nel sistema di pianificazione e programmazione multilivello. E’ un sistema complesso, articolato…

The economic impact of water taxes: a computable general equilibrium analysis with an international data set

Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument for improving the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that the impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use and lead to shifts in production, consumption and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonethele…

MACROECONOMI EFFECTS OF PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE IN THE UNITED STATES

A general equilibrium analysis of climate change impacts on tourism

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first set of shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second set reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis h…

Impacts of global multilateral trade liberalization on sustainability indicators

A computable general equilibrium model was used to analyze trade liberalization impacts on sustainability. On the basis of multilateral trade negotiations in Doha Round, partial trade liberalization (PTL) and deep trade liberalization (DTL) scenarios were designed to assess their impacts on economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability using selected indicators. In a short time period DTL scenario showed high sustainability performance for developed and developing regions. In a longer time period gradual trade liberalization (PTL) appeared to be more beneficial in terms of sustainability performance for developing and least developed regions. Under both PTL and DTL scenari…

The economic impacts appraisal for the transport sector due to climate change policies

Organized crime and public spending: a panel data analysis

The aim of this paper is to investigate, empirically, what components of public spending imply a decreasing effect on organized crime and what components create opportunities for organized crime, discussing also the role of government efficiency. Using a panel data analysis, the results show a strikingly consistent pattern for the EU Member States. Organized crime mainly operates in the distribution of government spending for local public goods and public provision of private services. There is a decreasing effect on organized crime of the public expenditure devoted to education and social policy. Government efficiency in public spending is beneficial to limit the opportunities of the organ…

Modelling strategic alliances in the wide-body long range aircraft market

Abstract The wide-body long-range aircrafts market is characterized by increasing rivalry between Airbus and Boeing. One of the factors that drive their strategic behaviour is technological. We propose a technology indicator to identify conditions under which the aircraft companies have incentives to join a coalition. For this, we provide measurement of the side-payments necessary to sign a strategic alliance aimed at reducing technological barriers in the market. The results suggest that the existence of side-payments guarantees the stability of a strategic alliance if the gap in the technological level between the firms is high, or competition is through prices. For monopoly, a strategic …

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects off-land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model. A coupling experiment

Riorganizzazione delle aziende di trasporto pubblico in un mercato liberalizzato

Modelling the labour market of minority ethnic groups

Abstract This paper investigates the effects, in terms of labour and macroeconomic indicators, of closing the gap between the ethnic minority employment rate and the overall population rate using a computable general equilibrium modelling framework. The labour market has been integrated by indicators related to ethnicity, employment status and occupational class. The policy test has been designed for the UK. According to the results, the policy actions aimed to remove the barriers that contribute to the unemployment of the minority ethnic groups improve not only the employment and occupational status of these groups, but the effects are also positive in terms of aggregate employment, GDP, t…

The Economic Impact of Restricted Water Supply: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Water problems are typically studied at the level of the river catchment. About 70% of all water is used for agriculture, and agricultural products are traded internationally. A full understanding of water use is impossible without understanding the international market for food and related products, such as textiles. The water embedded in commodities is called virtual water. Based on a general equilibrium model, we offer a method for investigating the role of water resources and water scarcity in the context of international trade. We run five alternative scenarios, analyzing the effects of water scarcity due to reduced availability of groundwater. This can be a consequence of physical con…

An Analytic Hierarchy Process for The Evaluation of Transport Policies to Reduce Climate Change Impacts

Transport is the sector with the fastest growth of greenhouse gases emissions, both in developed and in developing countries, leading to adverse climate change impacts. As the experts disagree on the occurrence of these impacts, by applying the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), we have faced the question on how to form transport policies when the experts have different opinions and beliefs. The opinions of experts have been investigated by a means of a survey questionnaire. The results show that tax schemes aiming at promoting environmental-friendly transport mode are the best policy. This incentives public and environmental-friendly transport modes, such as car sharing and car pooling.

Klum@Gtap: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions into a General Equilibrium Model: a Coupling Experiment

In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulat…

The Effect of Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS) on public transport demand and its uncertainty

Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATISs) include a broad range of advanced computer and communication technologies. These systems are designed to provide transit riders pre-trip and real-time information, to make better informed decisions regarding their mode of travel, planned routes and travel times. ATISs include in-vehicle displays, terminal or wayside based information centres, information by phone or mobile and internet. In this article, a Stated Preference survey has been carried out in order to know the preferences of public transport’s customers related to different ATISs and their willingness to pay in Palermo. An ordered probit demand model has been calibrated to determine …

Public infrastructure investment and taxation: the case of transport policy in the European Union

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing biophysical aspects of land-use decisions into a general equilibrium model: A coupling experiment

In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulat…

A Global Perspective on Effectiveness of Aid for Trade

Recent global initiatives on debt relief and development assistance call for increasing aid for trade to the poorest countries. The paper applies a multi-country computable general equilibrium model to measure the effectiveness of alternative aid for trade categories. The findings show that aid for trade policies expand trade and alleviate international income inequalities in the recipient countries, that will benefit mainly from aid for trade adjustment and technical assistance.

CAN PUBLIC EDUCATION EXPENDITURE REDUCE THE SHADOW ECONOMY?

This paper empirically examines whether devoting more resources to education can reduce the size of the shadow economy on a cross-section of countries. The findings show a negative relationship between public education expenditure and the size of the shadow economy, which is robust to the inclusion of different proxies for the control variables, a large set of policy variables and regional differences. The findings also suggest that an increase in educational attainment can reduce the size of the shadow economy.

Aid for trade policy in developing and least developed countries: A GTAP simulation analysis

Recent global initiatives on debt relief and development assistance call for increasing aid for trade to the poorest countries. We apply a multi-country computable general equilibrium model, to analyze if aid for trade offers the possibility that, instead of the developing and least developed countries’ being worse off—as so many were as the result of the last round of trade negotiations—they will actually be better off. Alternative aid for trade scenarios have been evaluated in terms of effectiveness and equity. Our findings show that aid for trade policies expand trade and alleviate inequalities. The developing and least developed countries will benefit mainly from aid for trade assistanc…

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PUBLIC SPENDING DECOMPOSITION ON ORGANIZED CRIME

The aim of this paper is to investigate, empirically, what components of the public spending imply a decreasing effect on the organized crime and what components create opportunities for the organized crime, discussing also the role of government effciency. The findings show a strikingly consistent pattern. Organized crime mainly operates in the distribution of the public spending for health, housing and community amenities. There is a decreasing effect on organized crime of the public expenditure devoted to education and to create morality values, such as the expenditure for recreation, culture and religion. Finally, government efficiency in public spending is beneficial for reducing the o…

A General Equilibrium Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tourism

This paper studies the economic implications of climate-change-induced variations in tourism demand, using a world CGE model. The model is first re-calibrated at some future years, obtaining hypothetical benchmark equilibria, which are subsequently perturbed by shocks, simulating the effects of climate change. We portray the impact of climate change on tourism by means of two sets of shocks, occurring simultaneously. The first shocks translate predicted variations in tourist flows into changes of consumption preferences for domestically produced goods. The second shocks reallocate income across world regions, simulating the effect of higher or lower tourists' expenditure. Our analysis highl…

The Effect of Public Education Expenditure on Shadow Economy: A Cross-Country Analysis

AbstractThis paper empirically examines whether devoting more resources to education can reduce the size of the shadow economy on a cross-section of countries. The findings show a negative relationship between public education expenditure and the size of the shadow economy, which is robust to the inclusion of different proxies for the control variables, a large set of policy variables, regional differences and endogeneity. The findings also emphasize the role of education, suggesting that public policies devoted to higher education level imply a decreasing effect on the shadow economy.

The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Water Use: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Water is scarce in many countries. One instrument to improve the allocation of a scarce resource is (efficient) pricing or taxation. However, water is implicitly traded on international markets, particularly through food and textiles, so that impacts of water taxes cannot be studied in isolation, but require an analysis of international trade implications. We include water as a production factor in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model (GTAP), to assess a series of water tax policies. We find that water taxes reduce water use, and lead to shifts in production, consumption, and international trade patterns. Countries that do not levy water taxes are nonetheless af…

The Economic Impact of the South-North Water Transfer Project in China: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the "non-market" solution. The second group of scenarios is called "marke…

A macroeconomic analysis of the public investments in European combined transport

Intermodal transport has been recognized as a priority by the European Union, that has defined different budget allocations of investments to improve the shifting from road to intermodal transport, which is more sustainable. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to discuss the macroeconomic effects, in terms of economic growth, welfare and trade, of these public investments for combined transport, which aspects have been neglected in literature. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model has been used. The main results have been that the European Union benefits from these investments, but at international level, USA and Japan would lose in terms of welfare. Furthermore, th…

Fiscal sustainability in the EU: From the short-term risk to the long-term challenge

Abstract The paper analyses fiscal sustainability of public debt using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. First, we identify the short-term risk for fiscal stress at country level; second, we investigate the assumption of convergence towards the government debt threshold (medium-term challenge); and, third, the requirement that debt projections do not show unsustainable trends (long-term challenge). The empirical implementation includes 18 EU Member States. Our findings show that the constant tax rate that stabilizes the public debt converges to 50 percentage of GDP for all the sample countries and tax revenues are the main driving forces for fiscal sustainability. Also our fin…