ADAPT - Advanced Prediction Models for Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO)

An agent based model of air traffic management

The WP-E ELSA project aims at developing an empirically grounded agent based model that describes some of the stylized facts observed in the Air Traffic Management of the European airspace. The model itself has two main parts: (i) The strategic layer, focused on the interaction between the Network Manager and the Airline Operators and (ii) the tactical layer, focused on aircraft and controllers behaviour in Air Traffic Control (ATC) sectors. The preliminary results for the strategic layer show that when we have a mixing of re-routing and shifting companies, the overall satisfaction can even increase together with the number of flights, which is an effect not observed when only one type of c…

Shrinkage and spectral filtering of correlation matrices: A comparison via the Kullback-Leibler distance

The problem of filtering information from large correlation matrices is of great importance in many applications. We have recently proposed the use of the Kullback-Leibler distance to measure the performance of filtering algorithms in recovering the underlying correlation matrix when the variables are described by a multivariate Gaussian distribution. Here we use the Kullback-Leibler distance to investigate the performance of filtering methods based on Random Matrix Theory and on the shrinkage technique. We also present some results on the application of the Kullback-Leibler distance to multivariate data which are non Gaussian distributed.

Correlation filtering in financial time series

We apply a method to filter relevant information from the correlation coefficient matrix by extracting a network of relevant interactions. This method succeeds to generate networks with the same hierarchical structure of the Minimum Spanning Tree but containing a larger amount of links resulting in a richer network topology allowing loops and cliques. In Tumminello et al. \cite{TumminielloPNAS05}, we have shown that this method, applied to a financial portfolio of 100 stocks in the USA equity markets, is pretty efficient in filtering relevant information about the clustering of the system and its hierarchical structure both on the whole system and within each cluster. In particular, we have…

Adaptative air traffic network: Statistical regularities in air traffic management

Starting from traffic data on flights trajectories-planned and actual ones-in Europe, we build a navigation point network. We study this network which exhibits different features for different European countries. In particular, some countries uses a high number of navpoints, facilitating the planning of the flight plan by air companies at the cost of higher concentrations of traffic in few nodes. Making use of the deviations from the planned trajectories, we find that once again different countries have different control procedures with respect to traffic management. Interestingly, we find that some countries tend to make more deviations when the traffic conditions are low. Moreover, they t…

ELSA Project: Toward a complex network approach to ATM delays analysis

The paper presents the preliminary results delivered by the WPE project ELSA. After some introductory notes about the project aims and structure, the paper shows how tools borrowed by the Complex Network Theory can be used to study the issue of delays in the air traffic system.

Statistical Regularities in ATM: network properties, trajectory deviations and delays

One of the key enabler to the productivity and efficiency shift foreseen by SESAR will be the business-trajectory concept. The path to a deep understanding of how this new concept impacts on the future SESAR Air Traffic Management scenario goes through a better understanding of the actual air traffic network, and this will be done in the present paper by analyzing traffic data within the framework of complex network analysis. In this paper we will consider flights trajectory data from the Data Demand Repository database. In a first investigation, we perform a network study of the air traffic infrastructure starting from the airports and then refining our analysis at the level of navigation …