South East tropical Atlantic warm events and southern African rainfall

[1] Intrusions of warm equatorial water in the South East Atlantic Ocean off Angola and Namibia may be linked with above average rainfall along the coast of those countries but sometimes also with inland areas of southern Africa e.g. Zambia. During the 1984, 1986, 1995 and 2001 warm events, above average rainfall occurred near the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and extended inland from the coast to an extent that appeared to depend on the intensity of the regional moisture convergence and atmospheric circulation anomalies. Rainfall over western Angola/Namibia is greatest for those events for which the local circulation anomalies act to strengthen the climatological westwards flux o…

20th century droughts in southern Africa: spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions

Southern African rainfall does not show any trend to desiccation during the 20th century. However, the subcontinent experienced particularly severe droughts in the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s and the magnitude of the interannual summer rainfall variability shows significant changes. Modifications of the intensity and spatial extension of droughts is associated with changes in ocean–atmosphere teleconnection patterns. This paper focuses mostly on the well-documented 1950–1988 period and on late summer season (January–March). A principal component analysis on southern African rainfall highlights modifications of the rainfall variability magnitude. The 1970–1988 period had more var…

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) impacts on Southern African summer rainfall and Tropical-Temperate Interactions

Composite maps of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies over the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) cycle show marked intraseasonal fluctuations over southern Africa (south of 15°S). Large-scale convective clusters are seen to propagate eastward and then northward over the continent, mainly between 10° and 20°S. The corresponding response of the rainfall field presents the alternation, over the cycle, of dry and humid phases, which are both significant. Moisture flux anomalies indicate an intraseasonal modulation of the midtropospheric easterly flow over the Congo basin at 700 hPa; these fluctuations are coupled to meridional flux anomalies that extend from the tropical to the subtropica…

Interannual to interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections

This study examines for the first time the changing characteristics of summer and winter southern African rainfall and their teleconnections with large-scale climate through the dominant time scales of variability. As determined by wavelet analysis, the austral summer and winter rainfall indices exhibit three significant time scales of variability over the twentieth century: interdecadal (15–28 years), quasi-decadal (8–13 years), and interannual (2–8 years). Teleconnections with global sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies are established here but are different for each time scale. Tropical/subtropical teleconnections emerge as the main driver of austral summer rainf…

Warming in the Agulhas Current system since the 1980's

International audience; Since the 1980's, the sea surface temperature of the Agulhas Current system has increased significantly. The warming is due to an augmentation of its transport in response to an increase in wind stress curl in the South Indian Ocean at relevant latitudes. This causes an increase in the fluxes of salt and heat into the Atlantic Ocean and in the transfer of energy from the ocean to the atmosphere. Therefore, the changes we are witnessing in the region could have far reaching consequences on top of the regional impacts on ecosystem and climate. The increase in wind stress curl is consistent with a poleward shift of westerly wind in the Southern Hemisphere reported by ot…

Climate-related activities within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region.

4 pages; International audience

Temperature changes in the mid- and high- latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere

A Hierarchical Ascending Classification is used to regionalize monthly temperature anomalies measured at 24 weather stations in Antarctica and the Sub-Antarctic and mid-latitude southern islands from 1973 to 2002. Three principal regions are identified that are geographically coherent: Eastern Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula and the Sub-Antarctic and mid-latitude islands. Within each region, consistent trends are observed: namely, stationary temperatures in ‘East-Antarctica’; a robust warming in the ‘Sub-Antarctic and mid-latitude islands’, most pronounced in austral summer (nearly 0.5 °C per decade); and a strong but more recent warming in the ‘Antarctic Peninsula’. Austral summer temp…

On the recent warming of the Agulhas Current

The Agulhas Current is an energetic current driven by the wind field over the Indian Ocean. It has a profound effect on the climate and the coastal ecosystem of South Africa and plays a key role in the global ocean circulation. The current carries warm and salty water from the tropics polewards and controls the exchange of heat and salt between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Since the 1980s, the sea surface temperature of the Agulhas Current system has increased significantly. This is due to an increase of its transport in response to an augmentation in wind stress curl in the South Indian Ocean. This causes an intensification of the Agulhas Current system and leads to an increased flux of…

Interannual memory effects for spring NDVI in semi-arid South Africa

[1] Almost 20 years of Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) and precipitation (PPT) data are analysed to better understand the interannual memory effects on vegetation dynamics observed at regional scales in Southern Africa (SA). The study focuses on a semi-arid region (25°S–31°S; 21°E–26°E) during the austral early summer (September–December). The memory effects are examined using simple statistical approaches (linear correlations and regressions) which require the definition of an early summer vegetation predictand (December NDVI minus September NDVI) and a consistent set of potential predictors (rainfall amount, number of rainy days, rainfall intensity, NDVI and Rain-Use-Efficie…

On the Role of Water Vapour Transport from the Tropical Atlantic and Summer Rainfall in Tropical Southern Africa

Coastal Oceanic climate change and variability from 1982 to 2009 around South Africa

Changes and fluctuations in sea surface temperature (SST) around the South African coast are analysed at a monthly scale from 1982 to 2009. There is a statistically significant negative trend of up to 0.5 °C per decade in the southern Benguela from January to August, and a cooling trend of lesser magnitude along the South Coast and in the Port Elizabeth/Port Alfred region from May to August. The cooling is due to an increase in upwelling-favourable south-easterly and easterly winds. There is a positive trend in SST of up to 0.55 °C per decade in most parts of the Agulhas Current system during all months of the year, except for  KwaZulu-Natal where warming is in summer. The warming was attri…

Recurrent daily rainfall patterns over South Africa and associated dynamics during the core of the austral summer

This paper investigates the influence of some modes of climate variability on the spatio-temporal rainfall variability over South Africa during the core of the rainy season, December to February (DJF). All analyses are based directly on the rainfall field instead of atmospheric processes and dynamics. An original agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach is used to classify daily rainfall patterns recorded at 5352 stations from DJF 1971 to DJF 1999. Five clusters are retained for analysis. Amongst them, one cluster looks most like the rainfall and circulation mean picture. Another one, representing 37% of the days, describes strong negative rainfall anomalies over South Africa resultin…

Intensity and spatial extent of droughts in southern Africa

International audience; The standardized precipitation index allows for monitoring the intensity and spatial extent of droughts at different time scales. We used it to do a retrospective analysis of the spatial extent of droughts in Southern Africa (South of 10°S), from 1901 to 1999. Accordingly, the 8 most severe droughts at the 6-month scale (October–April) for the summer rainfall region of Southern Africa ended in 1916, 1924, 1933, 1949, 1970, 1983, 1992 and 1995. At the 2-year scale, they ended in 1906, 1933, 1983, 1984, 1992, 1993, 1995 and 1996. Areas affected by those droughts ranged from 3.4 to 2 106 km2. Eight of those 12 years are El Niño years. Preliminary data indicates that 200…

From synoptic to interdecadal variability in southern African rainfall: toward a unified view across time scales.

International audience; During the austral summer season (November–February), southern African rainfall, south of 20°S, has been shown to vary over a range of time scales, from synoptic variability (3–7 days, mostly tropical temperate troughs) to interannual variability (2–8 years, reflecting the regional effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation). There is also evidence for variability at quasi-decadal (8–13 years) and interdecadal (15–28 years) time scales, linked to the interdecadal Pacific oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation, respectively. This study aims to provide an overview of these ranges of variability and their influence on regional climate and large-scale atmospheric c…

Variations in intensity of the westerly monsoon-like flow from the tropical Atlantic and summer rainfall over equatorial and tropical southern Africa

International audience; An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the onshore flow of moisture along the west coast of southern Africa using NCEP-DOE AMIP-2 re-analyses suggests two dominant modes of variability that are linked to: (a) variations within the circulation linked to the mid-latitude westerlies and the South Atlantic anticyclone, (b) the intensity of the westerly flow from the tropical Atlantic. The second mode, referred to as the Equatorial Westerly mode, contributes the most to moisture input from the Atlantic onto the subconti-nent at tropical latitudes. This mode appears to be associated with large-scale rainfall anomalies over the upper lands surrounding the Congo basin in …

Relationships between the Antarctic Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and ENSO, and consequences for rainfall analysis

Abstract The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) is the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid- and high latitudes (south of 20°S). In this paper, the authors examine its statistical relationships with the major tropical climate signals at the intraseasonal and interannual time scales and their consequences on its potential influence on rainfall variability at regional scales. At the intraseasonal time scale, although the AAO shows its most energetic fluctuations in the 30–60-day range, it is not unambiguously related to the global-scale Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, with in particular no coherent phase relationship with the MJO index. Moreover, in the hi…

Modification of the southern African rainfall variability/ENSO relationship since the late 1960s

Analysis of 149 raingauge series (1946–1988) shows a weak positive correlation between late summer rainfalls (January–March) in tropical southern Africa and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The correlation coefficients have been unstable since World War II. They were close to zero before 1970 and significant thereafter. Before 1970, southern African late summer rainfalls were more specifically correlated with regional patterns of sea surface temperature (SST), mainly over the southwestern Indian Ocean. After 1970, teleconnections with near global SST anomaly patterns, i.e. over the central Pacific and Indian oceans, dominate the regional connections. The increase in the sensitivity of …

The influence of ENSO on winter rainfall in South Africa

Whereas the impact of ENSO on the African summer rainfall regions is largely documented and still regularly investigated, little is known about its impact on the winter rainfall regions located at the southwestern and northwestern tips of Africa. Yet, these regions are densely inhabited and are net exporters of high-quality agricultural products. Here we analyze the relationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South Africa austral winter rainfall using a 682 raingauges daily rainfall database documenting the period 1950–1999. The May, June and July (MJJ) seasonal rainfall amount shows a positive correlation with the Nino3.4 index that becomes significant since the so-called …