Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium

German Science Foundation [161/9-1]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41325008]; [RNF 15-14-30011]

Cooling and societal change during the Late Antique Little Ice Age from 536 to around 660 AD

Societal upheaval occurred across Eurasia in the sixth and seventh centuries. Tree-ring reconstructions suggest a period of pronounced cooling during this time associated with several volcanic eruptions. Climatic changes during the first half of the Common Era have been suggested to play a role in societal reorganizations in Europe1,2 and Asia3,4. In particular, the sixth century coincides with rising and falling civilizations1,2,3,4,5,6, pandemics7,8, human migration and political turmoil8,9,10,11,12,13. Our understanding of the magnitude and spatial extent as well as the possible causes and concurrences of climate change during this period is, however, still limited. Here we use tree-ring…

Weakening of annual temperature cycle over the Tibetan Plateau since the 1870s

The annual cycle of extra-tropical surface air temperature is an important component of the Earth's climate system. Over the past decades, a reduced amplitude of this mode has been observed in some regions. Although attributed to anthropogenic forcing, it remains unclear when dampening of the annual cycle started. Here we use a residual series of tree-ring width and maximum latewood density from the Tibetan Plateau >4,000 m asl to reconstruct changes in temperature seasonality over the past three centuries. The new proxy evidence suggests that the onset of a decrease in summer-to-winter temperature difference over the Tibetan Plateau occurred in the 1870s. Our results imply that the influen…

A Review of 2000 Years of Paleoclimatic Evidence in the Mediterranean

[EN] The integration of climate information from instrumental data and documentary and natural archives; evidence of past human activity derived from historical, paleoecological, and archaeological records; and new climate modeling techniques promises major breakthroughs for our understanding of climate sensitivity, ecological processes, environmental response, and human impact. In this chapter, we review the availability and potential of instrumental data, less well-known written records, and terrestrial and marine natural proxy archives for climate in the Mediterranean region over the last 2000 years. We highlight the need to integrate these different proxy archives and the importance for…

Orbital forcing of tree-ring data

Based on an analysis of maximum latewood density data from northern Scandinavia, along with published dendrochronological records, this study finds evidence that previous tree-ring-reliant reconstructions of large-scale near-surface air temperature underestimated long-term pre-industrial warmth during Medieval and Roman times. Solar insolation changes, resulting from long-term oscillations of orbital configurations1, are an important driver of Holocene climate2,3. The forcing is substantial over the past 2,000 years, up to four times as large as the 1.6 W m−2 net anthropogenic forcing since 1750 (ref. 4), but the trend varies considerably over time, space and with season5. Using numerous hi…

Climate of the Mediterranean

This chapter considers a set of issues related to the synoptic climatology of the Mediterranean region (MR). The main Northern Hemisphere teleconnections affecting the MR and their role on temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric cyclones are described. The characteristics of the cyclones in the MR are presented. The role of teleconnections and atmospheric regimes on temperature and precipitation is discussed. The content includes extremes of temperature, precipitation, wind, and storminess (considering also marine aspects such as waves and storm surges).

Multi-centennial summer and winter precipitation variability in southern South America

[1] We present the first spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded reconstruction of multi-centennial precipitation variability for southern South America (SSA). A novel reconstruction approach of deriving 10,000 ensemble members based on varying predictor networks and methodological settings allows the identification of spatiotemporal changes in SSA precipitation and associated uncertainties. The summer and winter reconstructions back to AD 1498 and AD 1590, respectively, provide new evidence for multi-centennial increase in summer precipitation and an opposing decrease in winter precipitation into the 20th century. The drying in winter is significant over large parts of SSA, wherea…

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Abstract. Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on an…

Tree-Ring Amplification of the Early Nineteenth-Century Summer Cooling in Central Europe

Abstract Annually resolved and absolutely dated tree-ring chronologies are the most important proxy archives to reconstruct climate variability over centuries to millennia. However, the suitability of tree-ring chronologies to reflect the “true” spectral properties of past changes in temperature and hydroclimate has recently been debated. At issue is the accurate quantification of temperature differences between early nineteenth-century cooling and recent warming. In this regard, central Europe (CEU) offers the unique opportunity to compare evidence from instrumental measurements, paleomodel simulations, and proxy reconstructions covering both the exceptionally hot summer of 2003 and the ye…

Reply to 'Limited Late Antique cooling'

Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia

Past global climate changes had strong regional expression. To elucidate their spatio-temporal pattern, we reconstructed past temperatures for seven continental-scale regions during the past one to two millennia. The most coherent feature in nearly all of the regional temperature reconstructions is a long-term cooling trend, which ended late in the nineteenth century. At multi-decadal to centennial scales, temperature variability shows distinctly different regional patterns, with more similarity within each hemisphere than between them. There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or cold intervals that define a worldwide Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age, but all reconstructi…

Tree-ring indicators of German summer drought over the last millennium

Past natural and future anthropogenic drought variability has and will impact terrestrial ecosystems, agricultural productivity, socio-economic conditions, and public health on various time-scales. In comparison to reconstructed and projected temperature change, much less is known about variations in the hydrological cycle. Here we present 953 living and historical oak (Quercus sp) ring width samples from Central Germany (51–52

Large-scale, millennial-length temperature reconstructions from tree-rings

Supported by the German Science Foundation, grants # Inst 247/665-1 FUGG and ES 161/9-1. SSG acknowledges support by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, KJA by US National Science Foundation grants AGS-1501856 and NSF AGS-1501834, and JL and LS by the Belmont Forum and JPI-Climate, Collaborative Research Action INTEGRATE. Over the past two decades, the dendroclimate community has produced various annually resolved, warm season temperature reconstructions for the extratropical Northern Hemisphere. Here we compare these tree-ring based reconstructions back to 831 CE and present a set of basic metrics to provide guidance for non-specialists on their interpretation and use. We specifically d…

Timing and duration of European larch growing season along altitudinal gradients in the Swiss Alps.

The 2007 European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) growing season was monitored along two elevational transects in the Lotschental valley in the Swiss Alps. Phenological observations and weekly microcore sampling of 28 larch trees were conducted between April and October 2007 at seven study sites regularly spaced from 1350 to 2150 m a.s.l. on northwest- and southeast-facing slopes. The developmental stages of nearly 75,000 individual cells assessed on 1200 thin sections were used to investigate the links between the trees' thermal regimes and growth phases including the beginning and ending of cell enlargement, wall thickening and maturation of the stem wood. Needles appeared approximately 3-4 w…

2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from similar to 250 to 6…

Summer Cooling Driven by Large Volcanic Eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau

Large volcanic eruptions may cause abrupt summer cooling over large parts of the globe. However, no comparable imprint has been found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we introduce a 400-yr-long temperature-sensitive network of 17 tree-ring maximum latewood density sites from the TP that demonstrates that the effects of tropical eruptions on the TP are generally greater than those of extratropical eruptions. Moreover, we found that large tropical eruptions accompanied by subsequent El Niño events caused less summer cooling than those that occurred without El Niño association. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) based on 27 events, including 14 tropical eruptions and 13 extratropical eruptions,…

The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe

Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe. Climate…

Testing the hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive dendrochronological data

a b s t r a c t The precise, annual dating control, inherent to dendrochronology, has recently been questioned through a combined analysis of tree-growth and coupled climate models (Mann et al. (2012; hereafter MAN12)) suggesting single tree-rings in temperature limited environments are missing following large volcanic events. We test this hypothesis of missing, post-volcanic rings by using a compilation of maximum late- wood density (MXD) records that are typically used for reconstructing temperature and the detection of volcanic events, together with a unique set of long instrumental station data from Europe reaching back into the early 18th century. We investigate the temporal coherence …

Modified climate with long term memory in tree ring proxies

ABSTRACT : A contribution to the PAGES Asia2k Working Group. ABSTRACT: Long term memory (LTM) scaling behavior in worldwide tree ring proxies and subsequent climate reconstructions is analyzed for and compared with the memory structure inherent to instrumental temperature and precipitation data. Detrended fluctuation analysis is employed to detect LTM and its scaling exponent a is used to evaluate LTM. The results show that temperature and precipitation reconstructions based on ring width measurements (mean \alpha =0.8) contain more memory than records based on maximum latewood density (mean \alpha =0.7). Both exceed the memory inherent to regional instrumental data (\alpha =0.6 for tempera…