0000000000230102
AUTHOR
James W. Kolari
On the Stability of Stablecoins
This paper investigates the volatility processes of stablecoins and their potential stochastic interdependencies with Bitcoin volatility. We employ a novel approach to choose the optimal combination for the power law exponent and the minimum value for the volatilities bending the power law. Our results indicate that Bitcoin volatility is well-behaved in a statistical sense with a finite theoretical variance. Surprisingly, the volatilities of stablecoins are statistically unstable and contemporaneously respond to Bitcoin volatility. Also, whereas the volatilities of stablecoins are not Granger-causal for Bitcoin volatility, lagged Bitcoin volatility exhibits Granger-causal effects on the vol…
Is Momentum in Currency Markets Driven by Global Economic Risk?
This article investigates the potential link between momentum in currency returns and global economic risk as measured by currency return dispersion (RD). We find that the spread on zero-cost currency momentum strategies is larger and highly significant in high RD states compared to low RD states. Also, the relation between these momentum payoffs and global economic risk appears to increase linearly in risk. Further tests indicate that the same macroeconomic risk component in currency markets is present in global equity markets. Based on this evidence, we conclude that global economic risk as proxied by RD helps to explain currency momentum profits.
On survivor stocks in the S&P 500 stock index
This paper investigates the performance and characteristics of survivor stocks in the S&P 500 index. Using both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons, survivor stocks outperformed this market index by a considerable margin. Relative to other S&P 500 index companies, survivor stocks tend to be small value stocks that exhibit high profitability and invest conservatively. Surprisingly, survivor stocks tend to be loser stocks with negative exposure to the momentum factor. Further analyses show that the volatility of the survivor stocks portfolio is less exposed to tail risks and responds less to shocks in the innovation process.
Another Look on Choosing Factors: The International Evidence
Extending Fama and French’s (2018) U.S. study on choosing factors to international equity markets, we test nested and non-nested asset pricing models for North America, Europe, Asia excluding Japan, and Japan. For non-nested models, we propose a new simulation methodology using a blocks bootstrap approach that takes into account factor dependencies. The resultant out-of-sample Sharpe ratios across all models and countries are lower than Fama and French’s pairs bootstrap approach. While we confirm that the six-factor model with market, size, and small size spread factors for value, profit, investment, and momentum produces the highest maximum squared Sharpe ratio in most economies, an except…
Return Dispersion and Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing Anomalies
Recent research finds that cross-sectional return dispersion provides a risk-based explanation for some investment anomalies, including accrual, investment, and momentum strategies. This study extends the analyses of return dispersion to a broad set of anomalies by testing whether the state of return dispersion is associated with anomalous returns. Empirical results for 12 well-known anomalies indicate a robust link between good and bad states of return dispersion and most anomalies. Also, return dispersion helps to explain a number anomalies regardless of their association with investor sentiment. We conclude that market risk related to return dispersion plays an important role in many inv…
On the stability of stablecoins
This paper investigates the volatility processes of stablecoins and their potential stochastic interdependencies with Bitcoin volatility. We employ a novel approach to choose the optimal combination for the power law exponent and the minimum value for the volatilities bending the power law. Our results indicate that Bitcoin volatility is well-behaved in a statistical sense with a finite theoretical variance. Surprisingly, the volatilities of stablecoins are statistically unstable and contemporaneously respond to Bitcoin volatility. Also, whereas the volatilities of stablecoins are not Granger-causal for Bitcoin volatility, lagged Bitcoin volatility exhibits Granger-causal effects on the vol…