A mathematical model of exposure of nontarget Lepidoptera to Bt-maize pollen expressing Cry1Ab within Europe

Genetically modified (GM) maize MON810 expresses a Cry1Ab insecticidal protein, derived from Bacillus thuringiensis ( Bt ), toxic to lepidopteran target pests such as Ostrinia nubilalis . An environmental risk to non-target Lepidoptera from this GM crop is exposure to harmful amounts of Bt -containing pollen deposited on host plants in or near MON810 fields. An 11-parameter mathematical model analysed exposure of larvae of three non-target species: the butterflies Inachis io (L.), Vanessa atalanta (L.) and moth Plutella xylostella (L.), in 11 representative maize cultivation regions in four European countries. A mortality–dose relationship was integrated with a dose–distance relationship t…