Modelling the European Farmland Bird Indicator in response to forecast land-use change in Europe

International audience; The European Farmland Bird Indicator (EFBI) has been adopted as a Structural and Sustainable Development Indicator by the European Union. It is an aggregated index integrating the population trends of 33 common bird species associated with farmland habitats across 21 countries. We describe a modelling method for predicting this indicator from land-use characteristics. Using yearly historical land-use data of crop areas derived from the FAO databases (1990–2007) and published population data of farmland birds at the national level for the same period, we developed a series of multiple regression models to predict the trend of the EU state specific indicator, and the E…