0000000000267934

AUTHOR

George Kapetanios

showing 4 related works from this author

Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia using Dynamic Factor Analysis

2009

Abstract In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997–1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.

Economics and EconometricsFinancial contagionforecasting; dynamic factor; currency crisesFinancial contagionFinancial economicsVulnerabilityforecastingProbitFinancial Contagion Dynamic Factor Model Stochastic SimulationFinancial Contagion Dynamic Factor ModelStochastic simulationEconomicsEast AsiaFinancebusiness.industryjel:C51jel:C32Dynamic Factor modelCurrency crisisjel:F34currency crisesDynamic factorPrincipal component analysisbusinessFinancedynamic factor
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A Stochastic Variance Factor Model for Large Datasets and an Application to S&P Data

2008

The aim of this paper is to consider multivariate stochastic volatility models for large dimensional datasets. We suggest the use of the principal component methodology of Stock and Watson [Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W., 2002. Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indices. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 147–162] for the stochastic volatility factor model discussed by Harvey, Ruiz, and Shephard [Harvey, A.C., Ruiz, E., Shephard, N., 1994. Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models. Review of Economic Studies, 61, 247–264]. We provide theoretical and Monte Carlo results on this method and apply it to S&P data.

Economics and EconometricsMultivariate statisticsPrincipal componentsStochastic volatilityjel:C32jel:C33jel:G12Factor modelPrincipal component analysisEconometricsEconomicsStochastic volatility Factor models Principal componentsStochastic volatilityforecasting; stochastic volatility; large datasetFinanceFactor analysis
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A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Financial Contagion in Asia

2003

In this paper we compared the performance of country speci…c and regional indicators of reserve adequacy in predicting, out of sample,

Financial contagionOut of sampleFinancial economicsDynamic factorEconomicsSSRN Electronic Journal
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Forecasting Financial Crises and Contagion in Asia Using Dynamic Factor Analysis

2009

In this paper we use principal components analysis to obtain vulnerability indicators able to predict financial turmoil. Probit modelling through principal components and also stochastic simulation of a Dynamic Factor model are used to produce the corresponding probability forecasts regarding the currency crisis events affecting a number of East Asian countries during the 1997-1998 period. The principal components model improves upon a number of competing models, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance.

FinanceFinancial contagionbusiness.industryDynamic factorStochastic simulationPrincipal component analysisEconomicsVulnerabilityProbitEast AsiabusinessCurrency crisisSSRN Electronic Journal
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